Master of Disaster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 It kinda looks like dry air is being entrained into the circulation from the south. Maybe I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: It kinda looks like dry air is being entrained into the circulation from the south. Maybe I am wrong. Definitely some dry air off to the S and W and getting pulled in a bit.... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 At this point Idalia only has about 18 hours left over water. Not much time for changes in track. The good news is there is some leeway with the landfall point relative to the 11 am NHC track in order to avoid major coastal impacts on more heavily populated areas. Biggest threat at this point is if the turn NNE gets delayed and Idalia ends up toward the central/west side of Apalachee Bay. Not really worried about is going back more SE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 One never wants to "wish" a major hurricane on anyone, but if one thinks about the greater good, it's a bit lucky that this storm looks like it will hit the Big Bend area, the least populated coastal section of Florida, as per the graphic below. Still sucks for them, obviously. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Definitely some dry air off to the S and W and getting pulled in a bit.... Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looking at impacts for NC, particularly central NC. Getting in range of high-res models. NAM 3K is bullish on some heavy rain bands setting up, particularly Thursday morning thru mid-day. Could get pretty gusty as well during those bands. Most of central NC in flood watch now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Absolutely not. On visible sat imagery then why is there a clear air inflow channel coming in from the south. Continuing west around the circulation and into the center. I am not doubting you. But I am asking why there is a clear air channel entering the circulation of that's not dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, Master of Disaster said: On visible sat imagery then why is there a clear air inflow channel coming in from the south. Continuing west around the circulation and into the center. I am not doubting you. But I am asking why there is a clear air channel entering the circulation of that's not dry air. Yep and you can see it's inhibiting the NW side a bit as it wraps in. Good news for FL as it may delay any quick strengthening and we are less than 18 hrs from landfall at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 15 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: On visible sat imagery then why is there a clear air inflow channel coming in from the south. Continuing west around the circulation and into the center. I am not doubting you. But I am asking why there is a clear air channel entering the circulation of that's not dry air. The dry air is not being pushed into the core or eyewall of the storm. That would require shear, the hurricane will moisten the part of the storm the dry air got into with no issue. It's actually a bad thing in this case, because it means convective banding won't be able to wrap around and start an ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep and you can see it's inhibiting the NW side a bit as it wraps in. Good news for FL as it may delay any quick strengthening and we are less than 18 hrs from landfall at this point. Again, no. There isn't any shear to push the dry air into the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep and you can see it's inhibiting the NW side a bit as it wraps in. Good news for FL as it may delay any quick strengthening and we are less than 18 hrs from landfall at this point. The water vapor loop doesn’t show any exceptionally dry air around and even if so, without shear to direct it into the core it would probably stay separated. It also makes sense that with air rising fast inside the hurricane it would sink/dry up away from it. The NW side looks “inhibited” because the outflow/ventilation channel is to its NE. It’s not a sign of shear knocking away at the storm. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Nice hot tower in the western eyewall on both IR and radar (note that eyewall is very far away from radar right now so you are looking high up in the storm with the beam.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The visible satellite just continues to look more and more symmetrical by the minute. COC still hugging 85W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Why is there not a plane in the storm right now, in advance of the crucial, day-before-landfall 5 p.m. advisory? Why does NHC still have a track that doesn't/barely includes Tallahassee/St. George even as all three hurricane models and the GFS show landfall there? I mean, I never thought I'd be Criticize the NHC Guy, but I really don't get it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Why is there not a plane in the storm right now, in advance of the crucial, day-before-landfall 5 p.m. advisory? Why does NHC still have a track that doesn't/barely includes Tallahassee/St. George even as all three hurricane models and the GFS show landfall there? I mean, I never thought I'd be Criticize the NHC Guy, but I really don't get it. Budget cuts at the Air Force? Only so much money to spend on recon flights per calendar year. They got to stay within their budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Still work to do. Going to wait until tonight I think for any RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still work to do. Going to wait until tonight I think for any RI. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Southeast rains. Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this. Usually sinking air in advance. Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing. Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Southeast rains. Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this. Usually sinking air in advance. Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing. Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia. Wind was ahead and with them. I am in Hazlehurst, Ga. It has been quiet up to the showers in the last 2-3 hours. I have been through 6/7 hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 20 minutes ago, beanskip said: Why is there not a plane in the storm right now, in advance of the crucial, day-before-landfall 5 p.m. advisory? Why does NHC still have a track that doesn't/barely includes Tallahassee/St. George even as all three hurricane models and the GFS show landfall there? I mean, I never thought I'd be Criticize the NHC Guy, but I really don't get it. I'm pretty sure the 5pm cone will be shifted left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 12 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: How so? Because satellite presentation to me says it has work to do. As others have stated, RI more likely overnight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 franklin’s spike in intensity has strengthened the ridge between Idalia and itself, which is pushing Idalia further left in the short term. If I’m in Tallahassee I’m a bit nervous. As it’s been stated the storm is looking excellent and is most certainly going to strike as a major. Only question is how strong (and I’m seeing upper cat 4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 hours ago, beanskip said: Yeah I know. I guess my point is, when's the last time you can remember an NHC cone where at 30 hours the CMC is 100 miles outside the cone and the GFS is outside it or just straddling its edge? 1. Indeed, the 12Z CMC is outside the cone although for the record it's ~50 rather than 100 miles outside of it. The 12Z CMC is at Apalachicola while left side of cone is at Alligator Point, 50 miles E. But it is notable that it's outside the cone. 2. One of the issues is that Idalia's cone is rather narrow (~100 miles wide at FL coast). To compare, here was Ian's cone then, which was a bit wider: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line_and_wind 2. Now I'll address the CMC's horrible left bias regarding Ian, which made landfall near Port Charlotte at 19Z on 9/28/22. Here were the 12Z 9/27 runs for Ian: ICON Port CharlotteCMC Tampa GFS just N of Port Charlotte Euro Port Charlotte UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers Note that CMC was still up at Tampa, which is 70 miles to the north/left of the actual Ian landfall that occurred just 31 hours later. IF Idalia were to make landfall 70 miles to the right of today's 12Z CMC, that would be well within the cone. Also, keep in mind that the prior CMC run (0Z 9/27) was way up in the Big Bend, or ~200 miles away from actual landfall! So, the CMC appears to have a severe left bias. 3. The 12Z GFS is on the left edge of cone (Alligator Point). The 12Z Euro is in W Taylor County or ~25 miles E of the GFS/~25 miles W of the cone's center. The 12Z ICON/UKMET are in mid Taylor Count ~15 miles E of Euro or ~10 miles left of mid-cone. To summarize the 12Z runs: -CMC 50 mi left of cone's left edge -GFS left cone edge/50 mi left of cone center -Euro 25 mi left of cone center -UKMET/ICON 10 mi left of cone center -So, all five left of cone center -So, 12Z runs favor moving cone a bit to the left at 5PM advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emblaze2 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Normandy said: franklin’s spike in intensity has strengthened the ridge between Idalia and itself, which is pushing oxalis further left in the short term. If I’m in Tallahassee I’m a bit nervous. As it’s been stated the storm is looking excellent and is most certainly going to strike as a major. Only question is how strong (and I’m seeing upper cat 4) I think you need to add Idalia to your device's dictionary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Interesting from NWS Tallahassee. Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, MANDA said: Interesting from NWS Tallahassee. Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before. One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls Hermine (2016) - Category 1 Alma (1966) - Category 1 Unnamed (1941) - Category 1 Unnamed (1935) - Category 2 Unnamed (1899) - Category 2 Unnamed (1886) - Category 2 Unnamed (1886) - Category 2 Unnamed (1882) - Category 1 Unnamed (1880) - Category 1 Unnamed (1873) - Category 1 Unnamed (1867) - Category 1 Unnamed (1852) - Category 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Ok, confusion cleared up. Recon IS in the air and is starting to fly toward the center in a likely NW to SE pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 This looks a bit.... like something we've seen before.... 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 970.5mb extrapolated pressure. FL and SFMR not impressive with peak of 53kt at FL and 63kt SFMR. First pass though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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