Hurricane Idalia

[Kevin Reilly]

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Last few frames of the satellite loop seem to have a more ne component to the storm motion. Could be a temporary wobble as the center establishes itself but curious if it will hold. This motion could cause more land interaction with Cuba. However, with Ian last year this actually helped to tighten up the core. The terrain isn't too mountainous on the western tip to cause a lot of disruption to the LLC. 

I’m in Clearwater so have been wary about a further east track. My house was right on top of the center of the cone a day before Ian hit, then it shifted massively. A similar shift east would put us in the crosshairs.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

I use to say 15 foot is absurd but Ian proved a whole lotta people wrong with storm surge. Be safe. 

 Not meaning to scare anyone and for those who were unaware, Tampa Bay supposedly had as much as a 15 foot surge 9/25/1848 assuming accurate records! It appears that was from either a strong cat 3 or more likely a cat 4 with its 945 mb center moving ENE into Clearwater. Tampa, which was then just a small village of <200, measured 954 mb. This is pretty much the worst case scenario that would require everything to go wrong (very strong storm, center landfall very close, large size, angle/speed of approach, etc) and I'd hope that it is no more than a one in several hundred year event on average:

https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2012/9/25/great_gale_of_1948

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

I think the evac order reflect this. A storm skirting the coast and land falling in the Big Bend area is a far worse scenario for the Tampa area than Ian was. The surge won’t be catastrophic in a place like Tampa but could still be very significant.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

Long time reader, first time poster.  How quickly do we think this storm will weaken once it makes landfall? My wife and I are scheduled to travel to the Georgia coast on Thursday but obviously don't want to do that if it looks like the storm will have done major damage to that area after it tracks through on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.  Our hotel has told us we are welcome to wait and see or they will go ahead and cancel and refund us so we are not concerned about that.  Having grown up on the Georgia coast and evacuated for some near misses, I certainly don't want to be heading down on Thursday into a disaster zone as a tourist, but I'm not sure if the wait and see approach is the best idea or if we should go ahead and cancel.

No offense but I'd plan to come at another time without hesitation.

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

HAFS-B picked up this current east wobble pretty well, curious if it shifts back west soon like it seems to show

[Hotair]

Nice simulation of Gulfport FL flooding due to expected storm surge from Idalia

 

https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1696249278191083764?s=20

 

[accountingdawg2012]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No offense but I'd plan to come at another time without hesitation.

No, offense not taken - it's a trip for our 10th wedding anniversary and we are scheduled to stay at Sea Island so it's a pretty special trip for us that we've been planning for a year, so we're trying to figure out what to do, but are leaning towards cancelling.  Unfortunately rescheduling this year isn't an option for us as my in-laws are the only ones that can watch our kids and this was the only time they could do so for an extended period so it's either wait and see or cancel.

The resort has basically said they're planning on operating but I feel like that's a pretty optimistic outlook based on what Irma did to the island in 2017.

[TPAwx]

18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

Had 4ft IMFY from TS Eta, on a not dissimilar track maybe a degree to the right of Idi’s current track.  Of course Eta had a lot of energy built up.  The 4-7 forecast for TB may end up on the lower range of possibilities.

[Kevin Reilly]

I think we are approaching full moon during this event as well.  I have spoken to my friend in Cape Coral (who by the way is still trying to fix the roof that was blown off by 150 mph winds) says the Gulf of Mexico and the canals have already as of this morning and early afternoon shown water rises at this point already. 

[dbullsfan]

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week?


.

[beanskip]

31 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place.  Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems. 

Understood and I agree. BUT, for those of us concerned about staying on the west side of landfall, 60 miles can mean a lot! 

[Rtd208]

Some links of interest as Idalia approaches Florida. I will post additional as I find them.

https://hwn.org/

https://livestormchasing.com/map

https://www.twitch.tv/stormchaserwx1

https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/35392

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida

[cptcatz]

14 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week?


.

I'm looking at that too.  GFS deterministic showed it happening and Euro has roughly 1/3 of the members doing it.  Only thing is it seems it would be pretty weak at that point.

[Seminole]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 282052
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The satellite presentation of Idalia has continued to improve this 
afternoon.  The center of the storm is embedded within an area of 
deep convection with cloud tops colder than -75C.  Although the 
early reconnaissance aircraft and radar data from Cuba
have not yet indicated the presence of an eyewall, the aircraft
data did indicate that the pressure had fallen to around 987 mb on
the final pass through the center earlier this afternoon.
Believable SFMR winds of 60 kt were reported to the east of the
center, and Idalia's intensity was raised to that value on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory and it remains at that value for 
this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
are scheduled to be in the storm environment again this evening and 
should provide additional information on the structure and 
intensity of the tropical cyclone.  Another NOAA G-IV synoptic 
surveillance mission is underway and that data should be
assimilated into the dynamical model runs this evening.

Idalia is moving northward or 360/7 kt.  The storm should continue
to be steered northward between a mid-level trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles through
tonight.  On Tuesday, a faster north-northeastward motion should
begin as a trough moves into the east-central United States.  This
motion should bring the center of Idalia to the Gulf coast of
Florida on Wednesday.   The dynamical models continue to have some
spread after 36 hours, with the GFS and HAFS guidance along the
western side of the envelope and the ECMWF along the eastern side.
The consensus aids were slightly west of the previous cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The NHC track
forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.  It is still worth stressing that only a small deviation in
the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall
location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast
of the state.  When Idalia nears the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States the guidance suggests the cyclone will
turn more eastward as the aforementioned trough passes to the north
of the storm.

The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become more conducive
for significant strengthening when Idalia moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.  At the same time,
the storm is forecast to move over an area of high ocean heat
content.  These conditions are likely to allow for a period of
rapid strengthening which is explicitly shown in the official 
forecast through 36 hours. Idalia is likely to become a hurricane 
this evening, and is predicted to become major hurricane over the 
eastern Gulf within 36 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is just a 
little above the latest HFIP corrected consensus guidance. 

Idalia is forecast to move into an area very susceptible to storm
surge, and regardless of the cyclone's landfall intensity, there is
increasing confidence of a significant storm surge event.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.  Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of 
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into 
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas 
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western
Cuba tonight.  Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions
of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 21.4N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 22.7N  85.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 24.9N  85.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 27.6N  84.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 30.4N  82.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 60H  31/0600Z 32.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 34.0N  76.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1800Z 34.1N  71.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 34.0N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

 

[WEATHER53]

47 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think we are approaching full moon during this event as well.  I have spoken to my friend in Cape Coral (who by the way is still trying to fix the roof that was blown off by 150 mph winds) says the Gulf of Mexico and the canals have already as of this morning and early afternoon shown water rises at this point already. 

I’ve got a buddy with two properties in cape  coral and he’s there now

what do you think he is in for?

thanks 

[Seminole]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week?

The 12z GFS tries this, but it never gets its act back together. Wouldn't be too worried about a loop back.

[Hotair]

FL CFO reminds of the fire danger of leaving EVs at risk to storm surge.  I just got back from my Clearwater beach condo and counted 7 teslas in the lower parking garage.  I certainly hope they are moved by tomorrow.  I almost wish they would all get towed if they haven’t been moved by 5 pm tomorrow 

 

 

[Looking to the skies]

Euro ensembles showing a loop, almost every one turns back south. 

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

Had 4ft IMFY from TS Eta, on a not dissimilar track maybe a degree to the right of Idi’s current track.  Of course Eta had a lot of energy built up.  The 4-7 forecast for TB may end up on the lower range of possibilities.

So a TS with a similar track would be similar to a potential cat 3 storm? I don’t know if that makes sense? 

[Ahoff]

4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

So a TS with a similar track would be similar to a potential cat 3 storm? I don’t know if that makes sense? 

I think they were comparing tracks and saying this could be worse than forecasted.

[KPITSnow]

Just now, Ahoff said:

I think they were comparing tracks and saying this could be worse than forecasted.

I just reread it. You’re right. I thought he meant it would be on the lower range of 4-7 feet 

[Ahoff]

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I just reread it. You’re right. I thought he meant it would be on the lower range of 4-7 feet 

Yeah, if that’s low for Tampa Bay, it won’t be good for them at all.

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS showing a weaker landfall on 18z

[TPAwx]

10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I just reread it. You’re right. I thought he meant it would be on the lower range of 4-7 feet 

TS Eta gave us 4ft, the steps go down to a sidewalk and four traffic lanes and another sidewalk before the white barrier.  

Idalia will be on top of an enhanced full moon high tide at a likely Cat 3 intensity.  The 4-7 surge forecast could end up a bit higher.

[hawkeye_wx]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS showing a weaker landfall on 18z

This run of the GFS has the storm at 989 mb Tuesday evening.  It's probably 985 mb now, so unlikely to be right.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS showing a weaker landfall on 18z

Honestly, until Idalia develops a solid core (which will take several more hours), model track and intensity will continue to fluctuate.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve got a buddy with two properties in cape  coral and he’s there now

what do you think he is in for?

thanks 

I would say at this time looking at the current track Tropical Storm force winds in bands 30-50 mph winds, 2-3" of rain and 3–5-foot storm surge of course this all can change depending on how far east the track is. 

[Hotair]

Satellite presentation now looks much better organized.  Idalia could easily set records for RI given the hot waters in its path