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TheGhostOfJohnBolaris

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Everything posted by TheGhostOfJohnBolaris

  1. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Seems to be wobbling east quite a bit..
  2. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    https://twitter.com/nbergwx/status/1696283190271398172?s=46&t=R5sol24bP9u2QcPDXfW3Tw
  3. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Again, am I missing something here?
  4. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Is it just me or is HAFS initializing way too far west?
  5. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    It’s really trying to clear out that eye, shouldn’t be long
  6. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    HAFS-B picked up this current east wobble pretty well, curious if it shifts back west soon like it seems to show
  7. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    I’m in Clearwater so have been wary about a further east track. My house was right on top of the center of the cone a day before Ian hit, then it shifted massively. A similar shift east would put us in the crosshairs.
  8. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    If IMBY posts aren’t allowed I’ll delete, however curious if anyone knows how soon we’ll see watches and warnings? Im new to Tampa and run a business in level 1 evacuation zone that would require a bit of prep to close. Seems like we won’t have much time to prepare.
  9. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Is the 12z HAFS using any of the recon data? Strong start..
  10. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Should have Idalia very shortly
  11. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    ICON has been incredibly consistent with a hit just north of Tampa these past few runs. Now HAFS-A and B showing a shift SE. Curious to see if that continues.
  12. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    HAFS noticeably more SE than the last run
  13. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    We’ll just be spinning our wheels on track and intensity before the recon gets there tomorrow. Not putting much stock into either before then.
  14. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    ICON with another landfall around Tampa. It’s been very consistent with this track.
  15. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    HAFS-A and HAFS-B showing a big increase in intensity from 6z to 12z. Through 72... Edit: Lord...
  16. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    GFS not giving up it's hit near Panama City
  17. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    6z Euro a good bit west
  18. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    18z HWRF is a pretty dramatic change in intensity
  19. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Fort Myers has to be a little nervous looking at the 12z GFS..
  20. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Just for a good laugh
  21. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    It seems like we’re headed for a bad underestimation of the intensity by most of the models. Would this happening in November be the reason? Since there aren’t many analogs?
  22. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    Gives Tampa the northern part of the storm..
  23. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    As of 18z GFS yesterday had landfall at 990. Woops.
  24. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    HAFS jumps on board and has a similar intensity as HWRF with a similar path. It wasn’t showing landfall in FL until this run.
  25. TheGhostOfJohnBolaris
    HWRF continuing to show mid-970s landfall around West Palm Beach
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