TheGhostOfJohnBolaris

Seems to be wobbling east quite a bit..

https://twitter.com/nbergwx/status/1696283190271398172?s=46&t=R5sol24bP9u2QcPDXfW3Tw

Again, am I missing something here?

Is it just me or is HAFS initializing way too far west?

It’s really trying to clear out that eye, shouldn’t be long

HAFS-B picked up this current east wobble pretty well, curious if it shifts back west soon like it seems to show

I’m in Clearwater so have been wary about a further east track. My house was right on top of the center of the cone a day before Ian hit, then it shifted massively. A similar shift east would put us in the crosshairs.

If IMBY posts aren’t allowed I’ll delete, however curious if anyone knows how soon we’ll see watches and warnings? Im new to Tampa and run a business in level 1 evacuation zone that would require a bit of prep to close. Seems like we won’t have much time to prepare.

Is the 12z HAFS using any of the recon data? Strong start..

Should have Idalia very shortly

ICON has been incredibly consistent with a hit just north of Tampa these past few runs. Now HAFS-A and B showing a shift SE. Curious to see if that continues.

HAFS noticeably more SE than the last run

We’ll just be spinning our wheels on track and intensity before the recon gets there tomorrow. Not putting much stock into either before then.

ICON with another landfall around Tampa. It’s been very consistent with this track.

HAFS-A and HAFS-B showing a big increase in intensity from 6z to 12z. Through 72... Edit: Lord...