Hurricane Idalia

[Hotair]

9 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I don’t know, seems like the Tampa bubble is in full effect her and this is gonna end up staying north and west


.

Probably great for wind claims.  Not so much for storm surge   I don’t recall the last time we had 7 foot surge into the bay 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET significant shift left. First, here was 0Z UKMET:

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA     ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N  85.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.08.2023    0  19.8N  85.5W      997            38
    1200UTC 28.08.2023   12  20.8N  84.8W      996            41
    0000UTC 29.08.2023   24  22.2N  85.5W      996            39
    1200UTC 29.08.2023   36  23.6N  85.1W      996            46
    0000UTC 30.08.2023   48  25.7N  85.1W      993            50
    1200UTC 30.08.2023   60  28.6N  83.9W      989            51
    0000UTC 31.08.2023   72  31.4N  81.8W      988            47
    1200UTC 31.08.2023   84  33.3N  78.1W      987            45
    0000UTC 01.09.2023   96  34.0N  73.6W      989            52
    1200UTC 01.09.2023  108  34.8N  70.3W      990            54
    0000UTC 02.09.2023  120  35.5N  67.8W      991            49
    1200UTC 02.09.2023  132  36.3N  65.8W      990            47
    0000UTC 03.09.2023  144  37.2N  63.7W      984            53
    1200UTC 03.09.2023  156  39.5N  60.7W      974            54
    0000UTC 04.09.2023  168  41.4N  57.5W      971            50
------------------

To compare, here is the 12Z UKMET showing a significant shift left:

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA     ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N  85.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 28.08.2023    0  20.6N  85.4W      995            41
    0000UTC 29.08.2023   12  21.5N  85.4W      995            46
    1200UTC 29.08.2023   24  23.3N  85.8W      995            43
    0000UTC 30.08.2023   36  25.3N  86.0W      994            45
    1200UTC 30.08.2023   48  27.7N  85.3W      992            48
    0000UTC 31.08.2023   60  30.2N  84.1W      987            42
    1200UTC 31.08.2023   72  32.6N  81.8W      992            43
    0000UTC 01.09.2023   84  33.6N  78.7W      998            38
    1200UTC 01.09.2023   96  34.5N  75.3W     1001            46
    0000UTC 02.09.2023  108  34.0N  72.7W     1004            44
    1200UTC 02.09.2023  120  34.9N  70.4W     1005            44
    0000UTC 03.09.2023  132  37.0N  66.5W     1003            33
    1200UTC 03.09.2023  144  36.8N  64.9W     1000            48
    0000UTC 04.09.2023  156  37.2N  62.1W      995            44
    1200UTC 04.09.2023  168  38.9N  59.8W      988            47

[CoastalWx]

I'm not in the EM workspace, but having a patchwork county evacuation scenario like that is confusing.

[TPAwx]

3 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

After the debacle in Fort Myers last year surrounding late ordered evacuations, Tampa metro has to be very concerned about storm track and surge threat. Weren’t Zone A and B evacuated last year before Ian took a more southerly track? Tough decisions ahead.

Yes Ian evacs were issued for most TB coastal counties on 9/26.  
 

Really surprised Pinellas County hasn’t pulled the trigger yet, lots of folks at high risk even with current track.  MacDill AFB just went mandatory so would expect Hills and Pinellas to follow soon for Zone A.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET landfalls ~65 miles to the NW (at Apalachee Bay) of 0Z, which was ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key 

[Derecho!]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS trying to turn Idalia back into the southeast at HR 168?

Loops back into the Gulf (never intensifies) and wanders over New Orleans at HR 222. 

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Loops back into the Gulf (never intensifies) and wanders over New Orleans at HR 222. 

Shades of Hurricane Elena 1985. As a former resident of Tampa, that storm was talked about A LOT in the late '80s and '90s.

[GaWx]

 With 12Z Euro still remaining, three 12Z runs shifted left vs their respective 0Z runs (UKMET, ICON, and the already tied for most left at 0Z run GFS) and one shifted right (the tied for furthest left at 0Z run CMC).

[Hotair]

Is it just me or has the northward motion stalled a bit in the last hour or so?

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Probably great for wind claims.  Not so much for storm surge   I don’t recall the last time we had 7 foot surge into the bay 

 Hurricane Easy in 1950 (first landfall Cedar Key) produced a 6.5 foot TB surge, the largest since the 10.5 feet of 1921. At that landfall, Easy was a 958 mb cat 3 with 120 mph highest winds and was just crawling.

 Since 1950, highest surge I could find was 5 feet from H Gladys in 1968. It was a 100 mph cat 2 at landfall, which was 60 miles N of Tampa moving NE 

[Prospero]

44 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Yes Ian evacs were issued for most TB coastal counties on 9/26.  
 

Really surprised Pinellas County hasn’t pulled the trigger yet, lots of folks at high risk even with current track.  MacDill AFB just went mandatory so would expect Hills and Pinellas to follow soon for Zone A.

Oh, it is going to happen soon. I just had lunch on the water at a Marina in South Pinellas County and even though pleasant right now, everybody knows we will not be eating lunch anywhere in the area tomorrow.

 

[sarakenny]

From Pinellas County: Anticipating possible life-threatening storm surge as Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to become a major hurricane, Pinellas County has ordered the mandatory evacuation of Zone A, including all mobile homes, effective tonight, Monday, Aug. 28, at 7 p.m.

[LakeEffectKing]

[SnowGoose69]

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

[WEATHER53]

5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

How have you been?

[dbullsfan]

I agree, Tampa area is about as likely to just get some light rain and winds from outer bands as it is significant impacts. That being said this is going to happen quickly so hard to argue with being prepared.


….. this was supposed to be in response to the TPA closing down

[Prospero]

Agnes in 1972, I was 11 and this was my second hurricane experience. I remember our favorite seafood restaurant was destroyed on Treasure Island. We had 5ft breaker waves in our driveway in the Pink Streets of St Petersburg after my Mom decided not to evacuate for some small storm. I remember the news calling it a 10ft storm surge.

 

[Prospero]

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

Workers living in Zone A or B need to prepare which leave the airport understaffed and risky.

[smokeybandit]

3 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Workers living in Zone A or B need to prepare which leave the airport understaffed and risky.

Airlines are going to be proactively cancelling flights anyway. 

[Superstorm]

Airlines are going to be proactively cancelling flights anyway. 

Exactly. Airlines have cancelled for snowfall and not one flake stuck to the pavement.


.

[Prospero]

6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Airlines are going to be proactively cancelling flights anyway. 

What pilot wants to land in TS strength winds plus turbulence flying through bands?

I'd say TPA closing on the day a storm is predicted to be in the area is reasonable.

 

[NERMAN]

Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend

[NavarreDon]

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 21.2°N 85.1°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph


.

[Seminole]

[smokeybandit]

5 minutes ago, Prospero said:

What pilot wants to land in TS strength winds plus turbulence flying through bands?

 

Probably more than you'd think. But airlines don't cancel flights in situations like this only for safety. It's also to prevent planes from getting stuck there and messing up the rest of their network.

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, NERMAN said:

Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend

Last year on the morning Ian hit Florida Tampa Bay was in the center of the cone. Folks in Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers were relaxing thinking it was going to miss them to the west.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger

[beanskip]

Just now, GaWx said:

12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger

Tiny little jog west vs. 0z but (thankfully) not following the hurricane models which would likely result in my untimely death. 

[Seminole]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger

Expected this given the 0Z was off with intensity this morning. Any shift in landfall?