NERMAN

Does this work for you? It's still not worth relying on.

GFS has been showing this fantasy land snow way South for several runs now. Shows the potential for the upcoming period.

OZ Euro showed much more favorable conditions during this time frame. Waiting to see what it does at 12z. CMC was more favorable too.

Yep, all showing Big Bend landfall. Euro caved to the west. I'd like to know which intensity models aren't showing this strength to compare.

HWRF, HMON and HAFS all still showing a strong Cat 3 to weak Cat 4 as of 6z. They've been rock-steady.

Great write-up. I've been comparing this storm to Michael and there are a lot of similarities in the conditions, path, profile and current status. If it can get to a Cat 2 quickly then it would have more time than Michael needed to make a run at Cat 5. I know it's HIGHLY UNLIKELY because that was a perfect scenario, and I'm not doomcasting or wishing, just throwing it out there the real possibility of intense RI over the next 24 hours.

I'm not quite sure I follow you? Are you suggesting the current NHC cone area for landfall (say cedar key to big bend) is unlikely to play out?

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the GFS show this too?

HMON and HAFS-A are both in the mid 950's. Splitting the difference with the two you mentioned gets a strong cat 3 to low-end cat 4.

Yep, they should have evacuated all of those low lying areas in advance. The loss of life particularly in Ft Myers could have been avoided. But I also remember reading a lot of the locals refused to leave. I mean, they had a major tracking toward them for days. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend

12z GFS came in with the same intensity as 06z, as a Cat 3

Totally agree. HWRF showed a strong Cat 4 at 06z and the others had a strong Cat 3. Let's see what they have at 12z before saying the guidance has dropped.