WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Agree. I really think it’s land interaction at least initially. The visible has been impressive, but look at the Cancun radar. This is a TD imo and if it’s not it’s damn close. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Agree. I really think it’s land interaction at least initially. The visible has been impressive, but look at the Cancun radar. This is a TD imo and if it’s not it’s damn close. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/I think this is a depression as well and probably will be classified this afternoon, if not certainly by 5PM. That radar imagery and the low-level cloud flow is too much to ignore. It looks like TCG literally occurred just prior or during that loop. Hopefully the NHC can get reconnaissance moved up to this evening.As for steering flow and what this is going to do the next 24-48 hrs. Does it drift west over the Yucatan or remain over the straits? Possibly meander into the SE GOM? Huge implications over the slightest movements now we clearly have a COC. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Agree with all. No question this is a tropical cyclone and the NHC should to pull the trigger soon. Looks too good on all levels (banding, outflow, convection, radar presentation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Normandy said: Agree with all. No question this is a tropical cyclone and the NHC should to pull the trigger soon. Looks too good on all levels (banding, outflow, convection, radar presentation). I've seen so many systems NAMED that did not look near as good as this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 HAFS-A and HAFS-B showing a big increase in intensity from 6z to 12z. Through 72... Edit: Lord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 All the hurricane models (hwrf, hmon, hafs) have greatly ramped up the strength as it shoots northward toward landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 26, 2023 Author Share Posted August 26, 2023 This is 2-3 days ahead of schedule in the Yucatán channel. As it meanders in a low shear environment what I’ll be watching for is if and how quickly a solid CDO/inner core develops. If we can get one going prior to shear increasing in 2-3 days, then the ceiling for this is much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 I hate to say it but this feels like watching the birth of the next great Gulf hurricane 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 No surprise, but the NHC is telegraphing advisories later today. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Franklin, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located near the Yucatan Channel continue to gradually become better organized. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated on this system later today. The system is expected to move very slowly northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are likely over portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 This thing is about to blow up. Two days ahead of schedule sadly means a CAT 4 hurricane near the Big Bend of FL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 It feels like the Fall in Tampa Bay, hot but dry and not so uncomfortable. Bought half-n-half and two gallons of water today, a couple cans of beans, etc. Two cases of beer in reserve. I saw people stocking up on toilet paper as I guess it is common knowledge that running out of toilet paper during a raging hurricane is a serious nightmare. We still have our COVID stock-pile of Northern Quilt...but is the expiration date expired?? Oh my! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 26, 2023 Author Share Posted August 26, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Euro short range still wants to take this near or over the Yucatan in the next 24 hours, so I suppose that's still something to watch. All the globals still playing catch up though to the organization we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 If the latest HWRF verifies (again, not saying this is the most likely solution); western Cuba is in for a solid hurricane in less than 48 hours. Then after that... Looks like last night's 0Z run was a glitch in the matrix for the famously bullish hurricane model. Both 12Z HAFS also go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 12z HWRF and HAFS-1 both bring the pressure into the 930's. Knocking on cat 5 door... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 With the massive shifts we're seeing on the guidance with regard to the steering pattern post landfall, there's a lot of uncertainty on where this eventually ends up after Florida, and if it gets left behind by the northeast trough. I know that's far out, but it's something of interest for the SE coast folks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 If you want to know how seriously the NOAA/NHC is taking this, here’s your answer This is not something to wait until the last minute to prepare for. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Circulation and banding just east of Cancun is clearly evident on Satellite and Radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Kind of surprised NHC didn't designate this as a PTC at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Kind of surprised NHC didn't designate this as a PTC at 11am. Gert may have been on their mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 26, 2023 Author Share Posted August 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Gert may have been on their mind The reply guys on Twitter really got to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: The reply guys on Twitter really got to them Sick of those chuds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Looks like convection near the center is waning. I wonder if it's not as healthy as it looked a few hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: Looks like convection near the center is waning. I wonder if it's not as healthy as it looked a few hours ago. DMIN 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Looks like convection near the center is waning. I wonder if it's not as healthy as it looked a few hours ago. Yeah…it’s dead. Time to close this thread. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 12z EPS Worth noting how bearish the ensembles continue to be on significant development. This isn't a long range forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Navy satellite site has TD #10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Special Message from NHC Issued 26 Aug 2023 20:16 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC). 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Because there’s nothing else to do…I’m guessing their first map will have a landfall near Steinhatchee (north of Cedar Key) at 70kts, cautiously setting aside the higher intensity hurricane models until recon can get in there tomorrow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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