jacindc Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Earlier TWC showed video of street flooding in Ft. Myers Beach. Hope people up the coast who won't "take a direct hit" are noting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 29, 2023 Author Share Posted August 29, 2023 Eye diameter on radar is about 10nm at 20,000ft so it is likely ~9.5nm at flight level and we had a drop of probably 3-4mb between passes. From 972 to probably 968ish. Looks like its go time. Update: 968 confirmed. That's a big pressure drop. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 965 mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Lightning in the eyewall again - North and even Western sides too, looks like she's getting ornery! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 mb drop in last 1 hour 24 minutes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 12Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74WB. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)F. Eye Character: RaggedG. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Concentric eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 29, 2023 Author Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye Can see that on radar. Though it doesn't look like an EWRC to me. Looks like growing pains of inner core organization. Also supported by the fact that there is no outer wind maxima visible on the aircraft data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Concentric eyes It's clearly due to me posting that there isn't time for an ERC prior to landfall. Murphy's Law. The eyewall appears to be intensifying, perhaps a merger? Perhaps the outer banding is involved in the new impressive bursts. At any rate, the pressure is falling, not steady state or rising, so no clue. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast. Appreciate the response but I don't see how this applies to the current situation. Hatteras and also the Capes in New England will certainly experience more adverse effects from coastal storms due to their eastward location. But how does that apply to the current situation in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Composite from the past 10 hours. 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 31 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. At the time though it’s a little stretch to go 85 kts from 91 kts from FL winds. That was over 90 min ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, Nibor said: Composite from the past 10 hours. What is your radar source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Definitely a better appearance on radar and satellite. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, wkd said: What is your radar source? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Have fun. One of my favorite storm resources. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Here is the radar image, showing wind gusts measured up to 49mph in the last hour. Maximum radar base velocity of 87kt toward the radar and 69kt away from KTBW. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At the time though it’s a little stretch to go 85 kts from 91 kts from FL winds. That was over 90 min ago too. There was an eyewall dropsonde before NHC said 100mph that measured 98kt winds at 955mb (less than 1000 ft above surface). Suspect that’s what they used. There is now a new dropsonde with 110kt winds about 1700ft above surface (921mb): 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 There has been a dryslot on the western semicircle of the core for much of the late afternoon. But the eastern semicircle looks more like a merger over the past hour. There exist some very intense wrapping cells at present. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, gymengineer said: 9 mb pressure drop (965 w/22 kt wind) in a little less than 2 hours. It's actually 968mb at the surface on that sonde... there's just no wind data at the very surface for some reason... so probably good for 967/966mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Close to nowcasting, but still some value from 18z runs imo. Both of the HAFS are reflecting the failure of Idalia to get west of 85.0 and are now showing slightly more eastern solutions. Every inch, foot and mile matters for the angle of approach and the windfield for Wakulla's coast, Tallahassee and others. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, George BM said: It's actually 968mb at the surface on that sonde... there's just no wind data at the very surface for some reason... so probably good for 967/966mb. Whoops, glanced too quick. Thanks for pointing that out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, Nibor said: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Have fun. One of my favorite storm resources. I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic. What Nexrad should I click on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Pretty crazy how quick convection has managed to wrap around the eyewall just within the last 30 min approx. Looking forward to reports as the evening progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, wkd said: I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic. What Nexrad should I click on? subregional..choose off FL then click nexrad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, wkd said: I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic. What Nexrad should I click on? Sub regional sectors > Mosaic Radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 TBW radar definitely showing convection wrapping around now. Yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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