TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Just now, Hotair said: Satellite presentation now looks much better organized. Idalia could easily set records for RI given the hot waters in its path It’s really trying to clear out that eye, shouldn’t be long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 980.8 on the first pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Covidea Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: I’ve got a buddy with two properties in cape coral and he’s there now what do you think he is in for? thanks I'm in Cape Coral. WINK news meteorologist Matt Devitt just categorically stated "This is NOT our storm". We'll have heavy rain and windy conditions. This is no different than the 2 storms that just barreled through this afternoon. I'll take 2-4 ft. of surge compared to the river that was running down my street during Ian. We luckily suffered little to no damage to our home in the "A" evacuation zone (we stayed home and rode it out). Prayers that the people hit by this storm fare better than we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Found 983 mb on latest dropsonde Idalia may get a promotion as soon as the 8 pm advisory. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 weak but after the loop Idalia hits almost the same spot in 10 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Is it just me or is HAFS initializing way too far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Based on recon and sat imagery I bet this has reached hurricane status. I’m guessing upgrade coming at the intermediate advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Covidea Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 The men and women who fly these recon flights must be amazing people. This is from Flightradar24.com and shows the aircraft currently out there. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Tampa TV Mets are downplaying this storm bigly. Saying this will be little more than a wind event for the area. I hope they are right in their bravado. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: Is it just me or is HAFS initializing way too far west? Again, am I missing something here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: Again, am I missing something here? As I mentioned earlier, until we get a solid core and eye with Idalia models will continue to fluctuate with track and intensity. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, Covidea said: The men and women who fly these recon flights must be amazing people. This is from Flightradar24.com and shows the aircraft currently out there. They all know where each other is — and they’ve got regional airspace coordinators keeping an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Tampa TV Mets are downplaying this storm bigly. Saying this will be little more than a wind event for the area. I hope they are right in their bravado. Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north . 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Can we take just a brief moment to acknowledge just how beautiful a cane that Franklin over in the Atlantic has become ? What an absolute beast! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north . This is about as bad a mentality to have at the threat of a major hurricane as could probably exist. 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Nibor said: This is about as bad a mentality to have at the threat of a major hurricane as could probably exist. Exactly. People listening to tonight’s evening news trying to decide if they should follow evac orders certainly got a mixed message from the Mets here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 I’m aware of the Tampa bubble which has evaded hurricane landfalls in the region for many decades. I was not aware until tonight that the last major hurricane to hit the Big Bend was back in 1896! If Idalia slams into the region as a Cat 3 or 4 it will be the first time most of the current structures in that area get tested by a proper storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 22 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: Again, am I missing something here? Nah that initialization is pretty fine. It isn't gonna be perfect but that is definitely a good initialization. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Looking upstream - If it stays on this path, I imagine coastal Georgia can anticipate significant impacts from surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Someone please start a banter thread to keep this one on topic 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Someone please start a banter thread to keep this one on topic Done, just created it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Done, just created it. Thank you Ladies and gentlemen, please keep the banter where it belongs. Now, back to your regular scheduled program 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Hotair said: Found 983 mb on latest dropsonde Idalia may get a promotion as soon as the 8 pm advisory. Still a TS on latest advisory. 7pm CDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, dbullsfan said: Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. If it rains, we'll have a hurricane! LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Still a TS on latest advisory. 7pm CDT. As mentioned yesterday, like Isidore 2002, Idalia is likely to have lower-than-normal pressure. Even if Idalia peaks at 120 mph, I'd expect a pressure in the 930s-940mb range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Appears like a possible definitive center is trying to form near the western tip of Cuba on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, dbullsfan said: Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. . Surge is what kills the majority of persons in Hurricanes 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, dbullsfan said: Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north . Just the two most important factors that determine how bad a hurricane is. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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