August 2023

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   75degs.(68/83) or Normal.

Reached 84 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   85-89, wind w., m. sunny, 72 tomorrow AM.

68*(69%RH)  here at 7am.      75* at Noon.       85* at 4pm.      88* at 5pm.     Reached 89* at 6:30pm.        80* at 10pm.

 

[SACRUS]

 

8/19

 

EWR: 82
LGA: 81
ACY: 81
PHL: 81
JFK: 79
TEB: 79
New Brnswck: 79
BLM: 79
ISP: 78
NYC: 78
TTN: 78

[SACRUS]

 

63 / 59 orr a low of 57.  Very nice morning (windows open).   Warmer today as the robustico ridge builds into Kansas city and s craping of the heat moves into the region for 36 hours.  Quick warm up to mid / upper 80s and the warm spots touching 90.  Low 90s tomorrow , capped by nearby clouds.  Enough sun and perhaps a stray mid 90s.  Flow comes around as ridge pumps west, and cool N/NE low through Wed/Thu.  By Fri (8/25) the flow is coming back around but likely coincides with next shot at rain and upper trough. Rockies ridge keeps the SW how and dries out the flooded desets.

Period 8/27 - 8/30 looks somewhat near normal with trough into the NE likely backing west or cutting off towards months end so likely turn more humid to close the month after a few more dry days.. 

 

Way beyond We'll see if the warm Atlantic can push and break the seasonal tendency with EC trough.

 

  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (1983)
NYC: 97 (1955)
LGA: 98 (1955)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1949)
NYC: 55 (1949)
LGA: 58 (1949)

 

Historical:

 

1886 - The town of Indianola, TX, was completely destroyed by a hurricane, and never rebuilt. (David Ludlum)

 

1886: The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas. The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the essential Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port. It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States.

1910 - The big blow up of forest fires finally came to an end in Idaho. A record dry August fueled 1736 fires which burned three million acres destroying six billion board feet of timber. The fires claimed the lives of 85 persons, 78 of which were fire fighters, and consumed the entire town of Wallace. The smoke spread a third of the way around the world producing some dark days in the U.S. and Canada. The forest fires prompted federal fire protection laws. (David Ludlum)

 

1928: A tornado estimated at F4 intensity initially touched down in Winnebago County, Iowa, moved to Freeborn County, Minnesota, and hit the south side of Austin, MN. Five of the six deaths were in Austin with 60 injuries.

1987 - Half a dozen cities in the Central Plains Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 102 degrees, and Goodland KS with a high of 104 degrees. Hill City KS reached 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sheridan, WY, reported a record hot temperature reading of 100 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail near Fortuna ND, and wind gusts to 70 mph near Webster SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, with up to six inches reported around Tulsa OK. Some roads in the Tulsa area were closed by water 10 to 12 feet deep. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 75 mph in Major County OK, and hail two inches in diameter at Jennings KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

This looks like it’s going to be the strongest 500mb ridge on record for the Midwest. Most of the times this region has approached 600 dm in the past resulted in 95-100° temperatures in our area. Goes to show how strong the Greenland blocking is.

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like it’s going to be the strongest 500mb ridge on record for the Midwest. Most of the times this region has approached 600 dm in the past resulted in 95-100° temperatures in our area. Goes to show how strong the Greenland blocking is.

We really got lucky!  Could haven beeen a nasty stretch were it not for that blocking.  Nations mid section will sizzle.  No clouds / rain there for most of the week.  Heat index readings will approach 115, locally higher in spots.  Pretty much as hot as it can get in mid to late August. 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like it’s going to be the strongest 500mb ridge on record for the Midwest. Most of the times this region has approached 600 dm in the past resulted in 95-100° temperatures in our area. Goes to show how strong the Greenland blocking is.

One of these summers that ridge will park right over us with 105+ temps and 120+ HIs for days. 

[MANDA]

On another topic.  Gotta love the naked cloud swirl otherwise known as TD 6.  So far this season we are going with quantity and not quality.

Coming into peak season so we'll see what happens.  Not expecting anything long lived or intense this coming week.

[Rtd208]

The GFS has become increasingly wetter for late week into next weekend. Have to see if that holds thru the week. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, MANDA said:

We really got lucky!  Could haven beeen a nasty stretch were it not for that blocking.  Nations mid section will sizzle.  No clouds / rain there for most of the week.  Heat index readings will approach 115, locally higher in spots.  Pretty much as hot as it can get in mid to late August. 

This was actually the 2nd strongest trough near the region during the summer behind 2009. But since we have warmed up so much since then, it wasn’t as cool as that year was. Still very impressive in the age of the persistent WAR and SE Ridge patterns. 

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was actually the 2nd strongest trough near the region during the summer behind 2009. But since we have warmed up so much since then, it wasn’t as cool as that year was. Still very impressive in the age of the persistent WAR and SE Ridge patterns. 

Nice plots and I totally agree.  Back in the "cooler" climate this would have been a noteworthy cool summer.

Has got to make you wonder when the pattern will break down and can't help but feel we have wasted and are wasting an eastern trough during the warmer months and if we flip back to ridging over the east for winter.  This pattern may have happened at the wrong time for winter weather lovers.  Unlikely this pattern persists for the next 6-7 months with any staying power.  On the other hand we are kind of in uncharted territory with climate extremes lately so who knows.

[lee59]

59 degrees here this morning. Looks like another week coming up, of very comfortable temperatures.

 

[SACRUS]

 

SW

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

SW

Now that's something you don't see everyday 

[psv88]

57. Crisp

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

57. Crisp

Same this morning at my stations.

[forkyfork]

i thought lows didn't count

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Nice plots and I totally agree.  Back in the "cooler" climate this would have been a noteworthy cool summer.

Has got to make you wonder when the pattern will break down and can't help but feel we have wasted and are wasting an eastern trough during the warmer months and if we flip back to ridging over the east for winter.  This pattern may have happened at the wrong time for winter weather lovers.  Unlikely this pattern persists for the next 6-7 months with any staying power.  On the other hand we are kind of in uncharted territory with climate extremes lately so who knows.

Yeah, it has been pretty unusual to get a trough this deep over the area with the Atlantic at these record SST levels. Winter troughs have been tough to come by since 15-16 with only shorter intervals until the WAR or SE Ridge returned. But even a mild winter with a ridge nearby can produce a decent snowstorm or two with some blocking and more favorable Pacific periods. 
 

 

[doncat]

86 here today after 59 am low....maybe 90 tomorrow which would be my first for the month.

[psv88]

88 today 

[uofmiami]

85 both my stations. 

[steve392]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it has been pretty unusual to get a trough this deep over the area with the Atlantic at these record SST levels. Winter troughs have been tough to come by since 15-16 with only shorter intervals until the WAR or SE Ridge returned. But even a mild winter with a ridge nearby can produce a decent snowstorm or two with some blocking and more favorable Pacific periods. 
 

What causes that abnormally cool area off the coast of Massachussetts?

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

What causes that abnormally cool area off the coast of Massachussetts?

Maybe upwelling from the frequent frontal passages.

[Cfa]

89/57 split today.

[Allsnow]

Philly still hasn’t hit 90 for the month of August 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Philly still hasn’t hit 90 for the month of August 

And tomorrow will be the first day ewr goes above 90 for the month. They've hit exactly 90 like 5x

 

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i thought lows didn't count

But Home Depot does!

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Parts of the region could see the temperature reach or exceed 90°.

Hilary continues to bring excessive rainfall to the California desert into Nevada. 8 WSW Borrego Spring in San Diego County has seen 6.02" of rain. Daily rainfall records include:

Burbank: 1.44"
Long Beach: 1.49"
Los Angeles: 1.25"
Los Angeles (downtown): 1.50"
Palm Springs: 2.64" ***new August daily record***
Palmdale: 2.66" ***new August daily record***
San Diego: 0.91"
 
Earlier today, Yuma, Arizona recorded 45 mph sustained winds with gusts to 69 mph. The wind gusted as high as 84 mph in California's mountains.

The adjacent heat dome produced impressive record heat. Houston topped out at 108° (2nd highest temperature on record) and College Station hit an all-time record-tying 112°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was unavailable today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today.

On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.255 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.120 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

8/20

EWR: 89
LGA: 87
BLM: 87
ACY: 87
New Brnswck: 86
TEB: 86
PHL: 86
NYC: 85
TTN: 84
ISP: 82
JFK: 82

[wilsonvoid1]

@MJO812


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