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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One thing Pic right now that high pressure near TX LA is feeding dry NE winds into the west side, however since UT is just slowly moving this will allow time for tropical al air to surround the system.As this happens it is also crossing bomb water so yea I could see a 3 storm

Are you gonna be in the ocean Wednesday am

in definitely driving to RI Wednesday am , in Colorado another day 

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Considering this storm is likely to continue strengthening right up to landfall the concern for a major at landfall is very high. Should Idalia take off this evening or tonight I could see a higher end cat 3 potential.

It's going to take off. Envt. was always supposed to be marginal during the day Monday. 

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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

He says it's going to be a cat four when it makes landfall.

Kev said 4 . I said I’ll gladly take that bet

i also said this am that tampa will not see hurricane conditions 

I will take that bet that it doesn’t reach a cat 4 and or Tampa won’t see hurricane conditions .

Also I always advise my sister and her family in Spring Hill regarding hurricane threats on their plan of action , I take these storms very seriously for that reason . I told them I would not anticipate having to leave , thou maintain watching this into Tuesday for track/ model  updates 

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Block island bouy just starting to show 2 feet long period Franklin swell .
 

Tomorrow would be a very fun day in the ocean if you like good surf (4-6 feet very large for the generic beach goer)  but nothing huge for surfers  ( for  New England beaches with S /SE swell exposure)  . There definitely will be some bigger sets beginning after noon . 
 

 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Kev said 4 . I said I’ll gladly take that bet

i also said this am that tampa will not see hurricane conditions 

I will take that bet that it doesn’t reach a cat 4 and or Tampa won’t see hurricane conditions .

Also I always advise my sister and her family in Spring Hill regarding hurricane threats on their plan of action , I take these storms very seriously for that reason . I told them I would not anticipate having to leave , thou maintain watching this into Tuesday for track/ model  updates 

Cat 4 is like 50/50....def 3.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cat 4 is like 50/50....def 3.

Ya cat 4 isn’t happening Imo  . But hey will see

id take a bet where you get 50 of it does and I get 25 when it doesn’t (set it up on cash app/ Venmo )

any storm ever go from a cat 1 to cat 4 into N gulf in 24 hours (maybe Camile) 

I see people get caught up in storms to the point where 85% of the forecasts are usually higher than the end reality(I often check myself bc I find it’s alluring to go bigger) - this has been from watching the board for 10 years when people get caught up in the excitement 

Anyone  live in fish creek to steinahatchee Florida , they should send Cantore there to make Moonshine. Cedar key will see some surge but I think the worst stays NW thou that is certainly not set in stone yet 

 

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I'm in Chiefland, FL this morning, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. 

As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. 

Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

giphy.gif

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm in Chiefland, FL this morning, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. 

As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. 

Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

giphy.gif

Best of luck! 

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41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm in Chiefland, FL this morning, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. 

As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. 

Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

giphy.gif

Nice work man. Love to see a chaser get out and enjoy their passion
 

Enjoy.

Steinahatchee  is my best guess right now , not sure If there is really much civilization up that way 

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