2023 - tracking the tropics

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Joaquin or Hermine? If it missed I don’t remember it  

I think we ended up getting some rain from that at some point. It just circled like an aircraft in a holding pattern for several days then came close enough and I think an approaching trough drew in some moisture. I don't even remember if it even directly impacted the SE/mid-Atlantic 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think we ended up getting some rain from that at some point. It just circled like an aircraft in a holding pattern for several days then came close enough and I think an approaching trough drew in some moisture. I don't even remember if it even directly impacted the SE/mid-Atlantic 

Hermine  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hermine  

hmmm guess it was but I didn't recall that storm having that track. I thought it was more like this...like the fujiwara was off the SE coast. But yeah my memory isn't that good anymore...seems like the past decade everything just starts blending together. Must be getting old

[CCHurricane]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Bottom line..SNE is a very rare tropical hit zone. It’s not Zero obviously, but a quarter century plus between hits is common place. 

The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal.

Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes.

• Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years).
• Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). 

----------------

[kdxken]

38 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal.

Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes.

• Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years).
• Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). 

----------------

Great stuff. Thank you.

[WxWatcher007]

39 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal.

Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes.

• Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years).
• Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). 

----------------

This is really excellent.

[ineedsnow]

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm still keeping an eye on it 

[CoastalWx]

 Boring AF

[UnitedWx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Boring AF

Good time of the year for boring. Crisp, cool fall like morning FTW

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Boring AF

Yup.  We are due though. It only takes one.  But agreed…boring for sure. But that’s what it usually is in late august. 

[kdxken]

51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup.  We are due though. It only takes one.  But agreed…boring for sure. But that’s what it usually is in late august. 

Especially with all the global warming going on.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup.  We are due though. It only takes one.  But agreed…boring for sure. But that’s what it usually is in late august. 

Roll the dice enough times.

I think some of the pre 1850 storms my have been misclassified as hurricanes. Things like derechos and hybrid/nor’easters. Not all but some.

The real reoccurrence rate of a landfalling hurricane in the north east may be a little bit lower than what’s currently suggested. 
 

Still, there were some that were obviously majors like the great colonial, 1815 and of course 38. That’s the one I think we are really do for. Not as much weakening inducing cooler water protecting Long Island and New England anymore.  So it’s just a matter of when.

meanwhile, Franklin is looking excellent for a medium to large swell for early next week. That period where it’s moving north will produce some captured fetch. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 hours ago, CCHurricane said:

The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal.

Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes.

• Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years).
• Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). 

----------------

This statistical overview has to do with at or > hurricane declarations? 

Earlier/recently in this thread there was discussion elucidating that while hurricane "drought" is noted, the advent of TC with lesser intensity may have actually improved over recent decades - since ~ 2000.

This was speculation, mind you - no declaration is being made. It's more of a curiosity where it seems so, and if so ... why.   Less hurricane in lieu of > frequency of forgettables.    Interesting if the number bear that out.

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 Boring AF

cmc ? Lol

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

cmc ? Lol

I haven't rebuilt yet from all the CMC hurricanes.

[CCHurricane]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This statistical overview has to do with at or > hurricane declarations? 

Earlier/recently in this thread there was discussion elucidating that while hurricane "drought" is noted, the advent of TC with lesser intensity has improved over recent decades - since ~ 2000.

This was speculation, mind you - no declaration is being made. It's more of a curiosity where it seems so, and if so ... why.   Less hurricane in lieu of > frequency of forgettables.    Interesting if the number bear that out.

Correct, the statistical overview (chart) and first bullet point represents at least  Hurricane strength at impact.

Really interesting conversation either way, particularly related to memory and behavioral biases! 

[MJO812]

It's a matter of time until we get hit

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Correct, the statistical overview (chart) and first bullet point represents at least  Hurricane strength at impact.

Really interesting conversation either way, particularly related to memory and behavioral biases! 

well, to be clear.   The hurricane numbers 'matches' the memory pretty well.

we were speaking about the increased - apparently so ... - of sub category TCs to affect the upper MA/NE regions.  this latter aspects is the point of interest

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

cmc ? Lol

Hah that's a wild solution, closed h5 low comes in hot and really digs 

[Torch Tiger]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a matter of time until we get hit

you will be on the west side of the storm with epic flooding but only mid winds

[ineedsnow]

Euro forming something but hits Florida then back out into the Atlantic 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

you will be on the west side of the storm with epic flooding but only mid winds

Not with Sandy he wasn’t.  Ya never know. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WinterWolf]

Didn’t look at the video…but ya know that’s Good old Andrew…Homestead, FL got absolutely flattened. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Didn’t look at the video…but ya know that’s Good old Andrew…Homestead, FL got absolutely flattened. 

Just a nite of terror as sunsets , if your watching from Miami or even Fort Lauderdale ..your praying for every wobble in the wee hours that determines if you have a livable structure at sunrise . Downtown Miami escaped total carnage by 15 miles 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

My family spent 2 weeks in a big rental house.  Twice.  Late 1970s.  Harwichport.  The models are coming my way.  Nantucket cane, its not an outlier, it is the beginning of a trend.

My first time drunk.  My parents went out, I had found the owner's Manischewitz.  Not a big bottle, but 15 or 16, never drank before.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

My family spent 2 weeks in a big rental house.  Twice.  Late 1970s.  Harwichport.  The models are coming my way.  Nantucket cane, its not an outlier, it is the beginning of a trend.

My first time drunk.  My parents went out, I had found the owner's Manischewitz.  Not a big bottle, but 15 or 16, never drank before.

Seems like you’re drinking now.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like you’re drinking now.

Just 2 beers after work.

[ineedsnow]

47 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

My family spent 2 weeks in a big rental house.  Twice.  Late 1970s.  Harwichport.  The models are coming my way.  Nantucket cane, its not an outlier, it is the beginning of a trend.

My first time drunk.  My parents went out, I had found the owner's Manischewitz.  Not a big bottle, but 15 or 16, never drank before.

968mb on tropical tidbits