Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[SnoSki14]

14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

above normal in summer: it's supposed to be hot

above normal in winter: it's a bad pattern

Literally every comment on Twitter after there's a post about record heat is that. 

Which is why it'll nearly be impossible for climate change to be addressed until it's too late. The complacency and levels of denial is insane. 

[Volcanic Winter]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Literally every comment on Twitter after there's a post about record heat is that. 

Which is why it'll nearly be impossible for climate change to be addressed until it's too late. The complacency and levels of denial is insane. 

@Typhoon Tip has made quite a few posts about this regarding how it’s human nature to not care about an abstract, intangible issue before it impacts you directly. Add to that how it’s become this weird political issue thanks to the oil industry, and the overall level of science denialism in this country. People overestimate their own understanding of things and operate off “that sounds true and aligns with my preconceived beliefs, so it’s correct.” 

Look I don’t post about this stuff much because I have a very pessimistic attitude about what we’re facing, but I don’t see any *real* change happening for another several decades. Until the point we’re so beyond the norm, anyone still left arguing against it will inherently look foolish. Until the point the younger generations that don’t have this weird political chip with climate change are the ones in the majority. Until we as a species literally have no choice (which by then will be too late, it’s already too late).

People talk about natural cycles of the planet like it’s some kind of rebuttal of climate change. The Holocene interstadial has already been one of the longer ones, we should be sliding back toward the next stadial (ice age). We soundly aborted that. We’re outpacing the climate impact of even the worst flood basalt mass extinctions (Permian / Siberian Traps, that almost cooked the entire planet over many thousands of years). 

I read many climate papers as they are published, some of the ones from the past year or two are highly alarming. I don’t know what else to say, we needed to be on top of this 30 years ago. It’s not even about blame at this point, the Industrial Revolution served its purpose. Now we know, now we need to evolve beyond inadvertent geo-engineering. Nobody said it’s an easy issue to fix, but we’re collectively actually doing less than the bare minimum. 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@Typhoon Tip has made quite a few posts about this regarding how it’s human nature to not care about an abstract, intangible issue before it impacts you directly. Add to that how it’s become this weird political issue thanks to the oil industry, and the overall level of science denialism in this country. People overestimate their own understanding of things and operate off “that sounds true and aligns with my preconceived beliefs, so it’s correct.” 

Look I don’t post about this stuff much because I have a very pessimistic attitude about what we’re facing, but I don’t see any *real* change happening for another several decades. Until the point we’re so beyond the norm, anyone still left arguing against it will inherently look foolish. Until the point the younger generations that don’t have this weird political chip with climate change are the ones in the majority. Until we as a species literally have no choice (which by then will be too late, it’s already too late).

People talk about natural cycles of the planet like it’s some kind of rebuttal of climate change. The Holocene interstadial has already been one of the longer ones, we should be sliding back toward the next stadial (ice age). We soundly aborted that. We’re outpacing the climate impact of even the worst flood basalt mass extinctions (Permian / Siberian Traps, that almost cooked the entire planet over many thousands of years). 

I read many climate papers as they are published, some of the ones from the past year or two are highly alarming. I don’t know what else to say, we needed to be on top of this 30 years ago. It’s not even about blame at this point, the Industrial Revolution served its purpose. Now we know, now we need to evolve beyond inadvertent geo-engineering. Nobody said it’s an easy issue to fix, but we’re collectively actually doing less than the bare minimum. 

At least this country is burning more natural gas which emits half the emissions of coal. Much better for air quality and breathing issues. There is only so much we can do with renewables since they are intermittent and land intensive. Even many pro renewables people are opposed to large wind and solar installations  in their backyard. New transmission networks cost a fortune. Electricity rates are already high enough. Utilities always find a way to pass on higher energy costs to the consumer. Nuclear is great but the cost of building new plants is too much so there are no utilities looking to build. We may have to wait for fusion to eventually become feasible to see emissions begin to decline. 
 

New York Times:

China has an answer to the heat waves now affecting much of the Northern Hemisphere: burn more coal to maintain a stable electricity supply for air-conditioning.

Even before this year, China was emitting almost a third of all energy-related greenhouse gases — more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined. China burns more coal every year than the rest of the world combined. Last month, China generated 14 percent more electricity from coal, its dominant fuel source, than it did in June 2022.

China’s ability to ramp up coal usage in recent weeks is the result of a huge national campaign over the past two years to expand coal mines and build more coal-fired power plants. State media celebrated the industriousness of the 1,000 workers who toiled without vacations this spring to finish one of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants in southeastern China in time for summer.

The paradox of China’s energy policy is that the country also leads the world in installing renewables. It dominates most of the global supply chain for clean energy — from solar panels to battery storage to electric cars. Yet for reasons of energy security and domestic politics, it is doubling down on coal.

After three days of negotiations in Beijing, John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, said on Wednesday that China’s coal program had been the hardest issue. “The question now is to shift from some of the coal dependency,” he said.

[rclab]

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

nws just released the 6 month forecast no rain for LI until january wow

 

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

says here your house isn’t ever getting precip again

Will if you ever publish “Trolling With Humor” I’d appreciate a signed copy. I wonder what we Islanders did to piss Mother off. Stay well, as always ….

 

[wilsonvoid1]

this summer hasn't been that bad! So far so good except the canadian smoke coming this way, that sucked big time. Hoping for a snowy winter 2023-24


.

[rclab]

6 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i’m just being a little goblin just having a giggle at my own japes and schemes

Good morning Will. Please continue, it takes the edge off … thankfully. Stay well, as always ….

[forkyfork]

we have a mesonet, there's no need to post obs

[Dark Star]

I take it no Aurora Borealis in the lower 48 this past week?

[Volcanic Winter]

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I take it no Aurora Borealis in the lower 48 this past week?

I hadn’t looked into it but I have a location based aurora app on my phone for when we go to Iceland that sends push notifications with the KP and cloudcover when viewing is possible in your area, and I didn’t receive anything. I’ve gotten them here in Jersey before, too. It went off for one of those earlier storms this year where they were possibly visible, but it was a cloudy night and most of our area is simply too bright (and they’re likely to be low on the northern horizon at our latitude unless it’s like Kp 8-9).

[Juliancolton]

Kp notifications lag behind by hours and are generally pretty useless. Gotta check real-time solar wind data

[Dark Star]

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I hadn’t looked into it but I have a location based aurora app on my phone for when we go to Iceland that sends push notifications with the KP and cloudcover when viewing is possible in your area, and I didn’t receive anything. I’ve gotten them here in Jersey before, too. It went off for one of those earlier storms this year where they were possibly visible, but it was a cloudy night and most of our area is simply too bright (and they’re likely to be low on the northern horizon at our latitude unless it’s like Kp 8-9).

Thanks.  What time of the year to you go to Iceland and can see the Aurora?

[Volcanic Winter]

9 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Kp notifications lag behind by hours and are generally pretty useless. Gotta check real-time solar wind data

It’s not just based on KP, it pushes that info along with other things. I do look at those things, I just hadn’t for this presumed event.

Was just mentioning the app never sent a push notification which implies it wasn’t a big deal, but as mentioned I hadn’t looked further into it this time. 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Thanks.  What time of the year to you go to Iceland and can see the Aurora?

We usually go in early Icelandic winter, around the beginning of November. We’ve been four times now and I’ve seen the lights on each trip. It’s addictive and spectacular. 
 

The best display from our last trip in 2022 was when we made it back to Reykjavik from the north. They’re still incredibly visible even with the (albeit small) city lighting. 
 

Just some quick iPhone captures, I have a lot on my DSLR I still need to process  

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Check this new paper about a potential forthcoming AMOC collapse:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

“We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).”

This is pretty wild. I know the AMOC has a fast and a slow state, and I believe the last time the AMOC was believed to be in the slow state was the Younger Dryas just prior to the start of the Holocene, caused likely by the meltwater pulse of the Laurentide ice sheet. 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Check this new paper about a potential forthcoming AMOC collapse:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

“We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).”

This is pretty wild. I know the AMOC has a fast and a slow state, and I believe the last time the AMOC was believed to be in the slow state was the Younger Dryas just prior to the start of the Holocene, caused likely by the meltwater pulse of the Laurentide ice sheet. 

Very cool. I've been following this for a few years now. I guess we should all make sure we get to the beach this year to enjoy the warm water. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Check this new paper about a potential forthcoming AMOC collapse:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

“We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).”

This is pretty wild. I know the AMOC has a fast and a slow state, and I believe the last time the AMOC was believed to be in the slow state was the Younger Dryas just prior to the start of the Holocene, caused likely by the meltwater pulse of the Laurentide ice sheet. 

I understand the basics, but that paper is for Math PhDs. Care to elaborate on real world effects?

[gravitylover]

Europe freezes

[coastalplainsnowman]

Out of the blue question here..  You now how today a lot of posters despair about climate change being the cause of our recent lack of snow, and fear that our days of snowy winters are numbered? In the late 70s when all the climate talk was about a "new ice age",  are there any snow / winter lovers here old enough to remember that, and were really pumped up about the chance of awesome snowy winters for awhile before things really went downhill and the metro area became a permanent block of ice?  Because I think that would be right on brand for many, including myself.

 

 

[gravitylover]

IMO, We just finished up our ~20 year snowy transition period a few years ago. Unless this AMOC shutdown happens we're pretty much done with winter outside of isolated periods. 

[Volcanic Winter]

The AMOC likely collapsed before the start of the Holocene during the Younger Dryas which was a significant climate excursion. I don’t necessarily think the impact would be as severe today, but I do believe it will be a substantial re-alignment of climate norms. 

As I’ve read it from other sources, the AMOC has a fast and a slow state that are considered stable. We’re currently in the fast state, but with notable slowing occurring. If that slowing continues, it will eventually quickly crash into its other slower stable configuration with less effective heat transport. There are beliefs the ultimate impact may be minimal, but I don’t necessarily subscribe to that line of thinking. It’s a major ocean - atmospheric system and we pretty much know what happened the last time it slowed, though as mentioned I don’t think impacts would be 1:1. 

If this new paper’s conclusions are valid and ultimately supported elsewhere, I believe this is something that needs to be taken very seriously. The IPCC was always conservative with the AMOC and last I read stated it was not in danger of collapsing at current trajectories for a couple centuries or so, IIRC. Though that would’ve been based on evidence that is now several years outdated in light of the new stuff coming out. 

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I understand the basics, but that paper is for Math PhDs. Care to elaborate on real world effects?

[Volcanic Winter]

11 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Out of the blue question here..  You now how today a lot of posters despair about climate change being the cause of our recent lack of snow, and fear that our days of snowy winters are numbered? In the late 70s when all the climate talk was about a "new ice age",  are there any snow / winter lovers here old enough to remember that, and were really pumped up about the chance of awesome snowy winters for awhile before things really went downhill and the metro area became a permanent block of ice?  Because I think that would be right on brand for many, including myself.

 

 

This is sort of unrelated directly, but tangentially related to what you’re talking about. 

I follow a well published university astrophysicist that writes for and helps run a geology blog; a very knowledgeable, multi-disciplinary dude with a lot of interesting perspectives. 

He believes based on comparing the duration of our current interstadial(length of the Holocene) with past interstadial in the recent Quaternary, along with the direction we’re heading along the Milankovitch cycles that help govern glaciation, that the LIA was potentially the beginning of the slide toward the next proper stadial (glacial, Pleistocene like climate). And that human activity effectively aborted it with carbon heat energy, which is the same mechanism that has pulled the earth out of ice ages throughout the epochs. In a way, our activity had an even bigger impact than we realize. 

Take this with a huge grain of salt, it’s a speculative opinion from a smart dude and nothing more. But it’s interesting food for thought. 

And regarding the ‘ice age’ fears during the 70’s, well climate science simply improved dramatically over time. And that era was when sulfur and other aerosols were still exerting considerable influence in suppressing the impact of rising CO2 (not unlike sustained volcanic influence), so it’s not wholly surprising to see a couple decade downturn with that in mind.

Climate science only improves as we move forward and learn more about the various feedback mechanisms built into our planet. It’s also clearly established how CO2 has been correlated to every natural climate excursion, both warm and cold, going back throughout the Quaternary. There are many natural processes that help raise and lower CO2 over the millennia, but what we’re doing is causing CO2 to skyrocket at an unprecedented rate. The people that deny human caused climate change by talking about natural earth cycles are ‘half right,’ in a sense, while missing extremely important context with respect to what that actually means and how that relates to the Anthropocene.

[bluewave]

Looks like one of the U.S.high end QLCS Derecho type events in Switzerland. A gust  to 135 mph is the real deal.

 

 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I understand the basics, but that paper is for Math PhDs. Care to elaborate on real world effects?

I believe we would continue to see the record warm SSTs along the  NW Atlantic increase as the current slows more and warm water piles up. The cool area south of Greenland would continue to increase with less warm water transport. Stefan Rhamstorf  has been doing much of the research. 
 

 

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah. This is why I’ve refrained from talking about ‘impacts’ of the AMOC switching to its other stable configuration.

We know the Younger Dryas AMOC slowdown returned the planet to a colder state, but that it may have been regional (which is not surprising). We’re in a different climate state now with different starting parameters, and I’m not educated enough on the subject to speculate on the effect of a complete AMOC slowdown in the modern era. I know this is somewhat contentious, though.

With that said, I would be very surprised if it did not cause a multi-century shift in climate norms across several regions, along with unexpected changes in others. 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah. This is why I’ve refrained from talking about ‘impacts’ of the AMOC switching to its other stable configuration.

We know the Younger Dryas AMOC slowdown returned the planet to a colder state, but that it may have been regional (which is not surprising). We’re in a different climate state now with different starting parameters, and I’m not educated enough on the subject to speculate on the effect of a complete AMOC slowdown in the modern era. I know this is somewhat contentious, though.

With that said, I would be very surprised if it did not cause a multi-century shift in climate norms across several regions, along with unexpected changes in others. 

But no end to the WAR on steroids and endless lake cutters yet. Got it.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

european severe weather is getting intense very quickly 

 

[Stormlover74]

gfs next week

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah. This is why I’ve refrained from talking about ‘impacts’ of the AMOC switching to its other stable configuration.

We know the Younger Dryas AMOC slowdown returned the planet to a colder state, but that it may have been regional (which is not surprising). We’re in a different climate state now with different starting parameters, and I’m not educated enough on the subject to speculate on the effect of a complete AMOC slowdown in the modern era. I know this is somewhat contentious, though.

With that said, I would be very surprised if it did not cause a multi-century shift in climate norms across several regions, along with unexpected changes in others. 

Nice under 10 minute presentation on the topic today.

 

 

[JustinRP37]

9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And regarding the ‘ice age’ fears during the 70’s, well climate science simply improved dramatically over time. And that era was when sulfur and other aerosols were still exerting considerable influence in suppressing the impact of rising CO2 (not unlike sustained volcanic influence), so it’s not wholly surprising to see a couple decade downturn with that in mind.

It’s also true that very few were actually calling for an ice age. That is a myth that has been perpetuated since the 70s. A Time article and a few other pieces but most studies showed warming. Even Exxon had studies showing the warmth that they downplayed starting around then. 
 

https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

we’re heading to the bad place

Ohio?