April 2023

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Warm temps probably contributed to dry fuels.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this the airport for Hartford?

 

Yes. It’s also New England’s earliest 95-degree reading on record.

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Hartford recorded its earliest 95° reading on record:

New York City also recorded its earliest two consecutive 90° days. The old record was set during April 16-17, 2002.

ORH with its earliest 90 degree reading. Crazy 

[doncat]

91° here today after 89° yesterday. 

[Allsnow]

 

[winterwx21]

High temp of 93 here today. Another beautiful day. I did a little running out there in the heat and it didn't feel bad at all thanks to the low humidity. 

I hope the models are right about downpours for tomorrow. I was just out there watering the vegetable garden, and it's very dry. We really need some rain. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Hartford recorded its earliest 95° reading on record:

New York City also recorded its earliest two consecutive 90° days. The old record was set during April 16-17, 2002.

So that must have been our earliest heat wave on record too since in 2002 we had 3 days of 90+ and peaked at 96 (same as 1976)-- I think the one in 1976 was displaced a day later?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It’s also New England’s earliest 95-degree reading on record.

Don, what's the earliest 90 degree day on record for JFK-- the only time I remember JFK hitting 90 degrees in April was during the heatwave in April 2002?  Did it also happen in April 1976?  And I believe there have never been multiple days of 90+ at JFK in April have there?  Thanks!

 

[FPizz]

89 yesterday 88 today

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It’s also New England’s earliest 95-degree reading on record.

Looks like they made it to 96° on the update.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
0519 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HARTFORD CT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 WAS SET AT HARTFORD CT TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1941.

[lee59]

86 my high today, now  71.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

So that must have been our earliest heat wave on record too since in 2002 we had 3 days of 90+ and peaked at 96 (same as 1976)-- I think the one in 1976 was displaced a day later?

 

 

Yes, the 2002 heatwave was the earliest on record.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like they made it to 96° on the update.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
0519 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HARTFORD CT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 WAS SET AT HARTFORD CT TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1941.

They did. That tied the April monthly record from April 19, 1976.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what's the earliest 90 degree day on record for JFK-- the only time I remember JFK hitting 90 degrees in April was during the heatwave in April 2002?  Did it also happen in April 1976?  And I believe there have never been multiple days of 90+ at JFK in April have there?  Thanks!

 

April 12, 1977. The highest temperature in 1976 was 89.

[donsutherland1]

Today was a historic day for early heat in New England. Hartford tied its April record high and established New England's earliest 95° or above reading on record.

Records included:

Albany: 89° (old record: 83°, 1938 and 1968)
Allentown: 88° (old record: 87°, 2018)
Bangor: 76° (old record: 74°, 1949)
Binghamton: 85° (old record: 79°, 1968)
Boston: 83° (old record: 81°, 1945)
Bridgeport: 87° (old record: 73°, 1949) ***Hottest temperature so early in the season***
Concord: 90° (old record: 84°, 1870)
Hartford: 96° (old record: 82°, 1941) ***Tied monthly city and state record; Earliest 95° temperature in New England***
Islip: 84° (old record: 73°, 1977, 2002, and 2022)
Manchester, NH: 91° (old record: 79°, 2014)
Mount Pocono, PA: 84° (old record: 82°, 1941)
New York City-Central Park: 91° (old record: 85°, 1941) ***Earliest 2 consecutive 90° days***
New York City-JFK Airport: 82° (old record: 78°, 1949)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 89° (old record: 84°, 1941)
Newark: 93° (old record: 88°, 1941 and 2022) ***Earliest 93° or above reading on record***
Portland: 79° (old record: 77°, 1941)
Poughkeepsie: 91° (old record: 88°, 1941)
Providence: 87° (old record: 83°, 1945)
Scranton: 91° (old record: 84°, 1968) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***
Syracuse: 86° (old record: 83°, 1968)
Worcester: 90° (old record: 79°, 1938) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***

Cooler weather will follow. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers. Readings will top out in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Next week could even see a day where readings struggle to get out of the 50s.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.047 today.

On April 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.004 (RMM). The April 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.033 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.5° (3.8° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

[donsutherland1]

[CIK62]

At the 3pm peak today, I was practically in the yellow.     I topped out at just 77 at Noon.      Had 69 at 4pm!      Heat drifting back now, 73 at 8pm.    My thermometer is just about 1500 feet from the water and there was air movement off the water with a filtered sun.      So I was 86, 88, 77 the last 3 days.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was a historic day for early heat in New England. Hartford tied its April record high and established New England's earliest 95° or above reading on record.

Records included:

Albany: 89° (old record: 83°, 1938 and 1968)
Allentown: 88° (old record: 87°, 2018)
Bangor: 76° (old record: 74°, 1949)
Binghamton: 85° (old record: 79°, 1968)
Boston: 83° (old record: 81°, 1945)
Bridgeport: 87° (old record: 73°, 1949) ***Hottest temperature so early in the season***
Concord: 90° (old record: 84°, 1870)
Hartford: 96° (old record: 82°, 1941) ***Tied monthly city and state record; Earliest 95° temperature in New England***
Islip: 84° (old record: 73°, 1977, 2002, and 2022)
Manchester, NH: 91° (old record: 79°, 2014)
Mount Pocono, PA: 84° (old record: 82°, 1941)
New York City-Central Park: 91° (old record: 85°, 1941) ***Earliest 2 consecutive 90° days***
New York City-JFK Airport: 82° (old record: 78°, 1949)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 89° (old record: 84°, 1941)
Newark: 93° (old record: 88°, 1941 and 2022) ***Earliest 93° or above reading on record***
Portland: 79° (old record: 77°, 1941)
Poughkeepsie: 91° (old record: 88°, 1941)
Providence: 87° (old record: 83°, 1945)
Scranton: 91° (old record: 84°, 1968) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***
Syracuse: 86° (old record: 83°, 1968)
Worcester: 90° (old record: 79°, 1938) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***

Cooler weather will follow. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers. Readings will top out in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Next week could even see a day where readings struggle to get out of the 50s.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.047 today.

On April 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.004 (RMM). The April 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.033 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.5° (3.8° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

Very impressive, Don. I noticed Bradford, PA reached 86F / 30C at over 2100 feet of elevation, setting a new monthly record (after tying the record of 85 yesterday which was set last year and twice in 1990). There are many years in Bradford where the thermometer has failed to reach 86F / 30C over the entire year. If that had mixed down to the surface, I think we would have been looking at widespread low to mid 90s in the lowlands, with maybe upper 90s in the urban corridor.

As an aside, I feel it weird many people say urban heat island effect is responsible for all or part of the warming trend. To me, anyways, it feels like the remote forested mountain locations like Bradford, Pa. are warming faster than anywhere else in recent years. Just not seeing much evidence of an urbanization effect on the trend.

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Wow-Williamsport, PA too. Although it wouldn’t be too surprising with so many other places reaching 90. It’s another spot that roasts on these westerly flow downslope days especially early in the season before full leaf out. 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

87 here today. No 90s in this stretch, but impressive heat for mid April. Some years we don’t get this hot until July. 

It’s actually “easier” to heat up at this time of the year before the trees fully leaf out. Less shade and less humidity from transpiration. Add in the westerly flow here vs so many SW or S flow driven heat events in the summer and not too surprising this heat overperformed. Models also underplay temps so often this time of year because they don’t factor the lack of transpiration (unless recent upgrades took this into consideration more). 

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive, Don. I noticed Bradford, PA reached 86F / 30C at over 2100 feet of elevation, setting a new monthly record (after tying the record of 85 yesterday which was set last year and twice in 1990). There are many years in Bradford where the thermometer has failed to reach 86F / 30C over the entire year. If that had mixed down to the surface, I think we would have been looking at widespread low to mid 90s in the lowlands, with maybe upper 90s in the urban corridor.

As an aside, I feel it weird many people say urban heat island effect is responsible for all or part of the warming trend. To me, anyways, it feels like the remote forested mountain locations like Bradford, Pa. are warming faster than anywhere else in recent years. Just not seeing much evidence of an urbanization effect on the trend.

In the big cities, UHI and climate change amplify the warmth. But in cities like New York that have a mature urban footprint, climate change is responsible for most of the recent warming.

Today’s heat was made 1.5-4 times more likely due to climate change based on Climate Central’s instant attribution algorithm. Globally, there’s little doubt that climate change is responsible for most of the observed warming.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

In the big cities, UHI and climate change amplify the warmth. But in cities like New York that have a mature urban footprint, climate change is responsible for most of the recent warming.

Today’s heat was made 1.4-4 times more likely due to climate change based on Climate Central’s instant attribution algorithm. Globally, there’s little doubt that climate change is responsible for most of the observed warming.

Interesting, I decided to take a look at this phenomenon with an open mind and selected three remote, rural towns in the mountains mostly surrounded by state and national forest and parkland. And compared them to the records at nearby Pittsburgh. Can't find any evidence of an urban heat island amplifying the warming at Pittsburgh. If anything, as I surmised, the rural locations look to be warming slightly faster.

Here is the comparison. All since 1958, except for DuBois [where records extend only to 1963]. Rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree, I found Bradford to be warming at 5.6F per century; Elkins warming at 5.7F per century; Pittsburgh warming at 5.1F per century; and DuBois warming at 4.4F per century.

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting, I decided to take a look at this phenomenon with an open mind and selected three remote, rural towns in the mountains mostly surrounded by state and national forest and parkland. And compared them to the records at nearby Pittsburgh. Can't find any evidence of an urban heat island amplifying the warming at Pittsburgh. If anything, as I surmised, the rural locations look to be warming slightly faster.

Here is the comparison. All since 1958, except for DuBois [where records extend only to 1963]. Rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree, I found Bradford to be warming at 5.6F per century; Elkins warming at 5.7F per century; Pittsburgh warming at 5.1F per century; and DuBois warming at 4.4F per century.

 

 

 

 

Good charts. It's mostly climate change. I've added Climate Central's instant attribution maps to my above comment.

[Picard]

My other half and I were up in Hartford earlier today.  The car read 95F as we were departing to head back.  I remarked to her that I didn't think it was that hot, and that it was probably amplified from the pavement.  Now I see the reading is actually credible.  It didn't feel quite that warm because of the low humidity.  But damn, record high mid 90s in New England in mid-April.  

My own high registered as 93F with 17% humidity.  I think my 93 might be a touch high because of the thermometer location and quality of the shelter.  Then again.....

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Picard said:

My other half and I were up in Hartford earlier today.  The car read 95F as we were departing to head back.  I remarked to her that I didn't think it was that hot, and that it was probably amplified from the pavement.  Now I see the reading is actually credible.  It didn't feel quite that warm because of the low humidity.  But damn, record high mid 90s in New England in mid-April.  

My own high registered as 93F with 17% humidity.  I think my 93 might be a touch high because of the thermometer location and quality of the shelter.  Then again.....

I was sitting in the shade when it was about 90 and it wasn't uncomfortable at all

[nycwinter]

it was very uncomfortable even with such low humidity glad the heat is over for the time being..

[SACRUS]

4/14

EWR: 93
NYC: 91
TEB: 90
BLM: 90
LGA: 89
New Brnswck: 88
ACY: 85
PHL: 84
ISP: 84
TTN: 84
JFK: 82

[donsutherland1]

NYC recorded its earliest 70F minimum temperature on record yesterday. The prior earliest such low temperature occurred on April 17, 2002. It is only the 4th such reading on record in April. Records go back to 1869.

[Roger Smith]

Record high minimum at NYC of 70F broke existing 2019 record by 10 (that one only increased the 1896/2014 tied record by one). 

A 10-degree jump in a record high is fairly unusual. I was able to run a program on my NYC data base and found there were only 15 jumps of 10 or more degrees in the current (366 daily) record high minima and only nine of those larger than 10 degrees. This list also contains five jumps of 10 or more that occurred before the eventual final record was set. This study requires a protocol that highest value 1869-1900 is a "starter" record and subsequent records are increases (if any) on that, which removes a lot of trivial cases from early in the data set. 

Incr __ Date ______ New record hi min __ Previous __ status 

+15 _ Jan 4 ________ 59 1950 __________ 44 1933 ___ 1950 final value

+13 _ Mar 21 _______ 55 1903 __________ 42 1890/94_ 2012 57F final value

+13 _ Dec 27 _______ 57 1949 __________ 44 1881 ___ 1949 final value

+13 _ Jan 16 _______ 53 1995 __________ 40 1974* __ 1995 final value

+13 _ Dec 24 ______ 63 2015 __________ 50 1931 ___ 2015 final value

+12 _ Jan 12 _______ 56 1932 __________ 44 1898 ___ 1932 final value

+12 _ Feb 16 _______ 56 2023 __________44 2002 ___ 1932 final value

+11 _ Oct 25 _______ 69 1908 __________ 58 1900*___ 1908 final value

+11 _ May 3 _______ 67 1913 ___________ 56 1910*___ 2018 70F final value

+11 _ Jan 13 _______ 55 1932 __________ 44 1892 ___ 1932 final value

+11 _ Jan 27 _______ 53 1916 __________ 42 1911 ____ 1916 final value

+10 _ Mar 20 ______ 56 1903 __________ 46 1898 ____ 1948 57F final value

+10 _ Apr 8 ________ 65 1929 __________ 55 1922 ____ 1991 66F final value

+10 _ May 6 _______ 71 1930 ___________ 61 1909 ____ 1930 final value

+10 _ Dec 29 ______ 55 1984 __________ 45 1905*____ 1984 final value

+10 _ Feb 23 ______ 55 1985 __________ 45 1943 ____ 1985 final value

+10 _ Dec 22 ______ 58 1990 __________ 48 1949 ____ 2013 61F final value

+10 _ Feb 5 ________ 51 1991 __________ 41 1943 ____ 1991 final value

+10 _ Apr 7 ________ 63 1991 __________ 53 1954 ____ 1991 final value

+10 _ Apr 14 _______ 70 2023 __________ 60 2019 ___ 2023 final value

________________

note there are no cases of a 10+ rise in high minimum record values May 7 to Oct 24 inclusive. 

* these years had earlier tied values

====================

There are a few larger increases in record high maxima. This is the same format for a list of increases of 12 or more in record high maxima (note April 7 has two of them):

+17 _ Mar 21 _______ 84 1921 ___________ 67 1919 ___ 1921 final value

+17 _ Mar 25 _______ 75 1910 ___________ 58 1904*___1963 (79F) final value

+16 _ Jan 27 _______ 69 1916 ___________ 53 1880 ___ 1916 final value

+16 _ Feb 25 _______ 75 1930 ___________ 59 1912 ___ 1930 final value

+15 _ Mar 13 _______ 85 1990 ___________ 70 1929 ___ 1990 final value

+14 _ Mar 14 _______ 70 1903 ___________ 56 1879 ___ 1946 (75F) final value

+14 _ Apr 7 _________ 89 1929 __________ 75 1908 ___ 2010 (92F) final value

+14 _ Jan 15 _______ 67 1932 ___________ 53 1928 ___ 1932 final value

+14 _ Feb 4 ________ 68 1991 ___________ 54 1883 ___ 1991 final value

+13 _ Apr 7 _________ 62 1904 __________ 75 1908 ___ 2010 (92F) final value

+13 _ Apr 1 _________ 83 1917 ___________ 70 1893 ___ 1917 final value

+12 _ Jan 26 _______ 72 1950 ___________ 60 1916 ___ 1950 final value

+12 _ Apr 12 ________ 90 1977 ___________ 78 1947 ___ 1977 final value

note: all of these occur before April 13 in the calendar year. increases in records, while frequent, are usually on the order of 1-3 F deg in summer. The largest increase late in the year was +11 Nov 1 1950 (84F) from 73F 1927 and 1929.

_______________________________________________

Not that many "starter" records have survived to the present time. Sep 7 1881 is probably the one with the largest supremacy over all later readings (101F vs 93F in 1919). 

 

[donsutherland1]

The progression of NYC's earliest 70° temperature record: