Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, RikC said: climate change; atmospheric dynamics are evolving faster than the models can keep up!! Makes zero scientific sense. Model.inputs determine model outputs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I have always believed heights crashing that fast leads to snowier colder solutions. I also preach closed sub 530 ULLS passing under us are a snowy solution. This has me baffled. Model outputs are no where near what I expected. This is what I mean…I agree with you. So I think this is where your knowledge and experience has to carry on, despite what a model is or isn’t showing. Real meteorology needs to be applied. Walt Dragg agrees with you, and so does Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: This is what I mean…I agree with you. So I think this is where your knowledge and experience has to carry on, despite what a model is or isn’t showing. Real meteorology needs to be applied. Walt Dragg agrees with you, and so does Tip. That is also why emass weenies want to hear from Harvey Leonard . Legend . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 GFS like 150 miles different than 18z with the low placement at 36hrs. Not your typical swing. Luckily most of it is along track and doesn't effect amounts as much as you'd think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 A comical swing on the GFS. Low is way west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: This is honestly crazy. Feel like literally nobody has any idea whats going on. Why does it almost seem like the models have gotten worse over the years? They should be getting better based on this: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Eastern ma is getting destroyed at 18z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have always believed heights crashing that fast leads to snowier colder solutions. I also preach closed sub 530 ULLS passing under us are a snowy solution. This has me baffled. Model outputs are no where near what I expected. That doesn't mean you are wrong? Maybe we are wrong but when something appears off, you have to be wary of the modeled solution... Gut tells me just plot 500 and 700 tracks and ask yourself what normally would happen... That's my starting point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I like what I see from the GFS. Colder surface on Tuesday from 18z. Looks like the bleeding stopped. Eastern Mass crushed at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 GFS till gives a wallop to Eastern Mass for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 All out blizzard Tuesday for eastern ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Thunderblizzard said: A comical swing on the GFS. Low is way west of 18z. 18z may have been a burp run for the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That is also why emass weenies want to hear from Harvey Leonard . Legend . Yes, absolutely. This is why I brought this up…real meteorology is needed now, not just model watching…cuz they’re obviously lost the last two days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That H5 evolution on the GFs is a beaut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That H5 evolution on the GFs is a beaut 700 looks better too. Feeling a little better with the 00z suite so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: That doesn't mean you are wrong? Maybe we are wrong but when something appears off, you have to be wary of the modeled solution... Gut tells me just plot 500 and 700 tracks and ask yourself what normally would happen... That's my starting point. This is what I mean. And something is very off with modeling today....things don’t make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: 700 looks better too. Feeling a little better with the 00z suite so far. Yeah you really can’t ask for too much better in that regard. Seeing these makes me feel better, but there are enough other flags which still hold some weight. But I would at least think if we see this trend with tomorrows guidance models will be a few ticks colder at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: 700 looks better too. Feeling a little better with the 00z suite so far. As I stated earlier, just get that H7 away from that CT coastline and let the Primary Ocean low do its job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Snow lingers through Wednesday morning in the Boston area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Yeah you really can’t ask for too much better in that regard. Seeing these makes me feel better, but there are enough other flags which still hold some weight. But I would at least think if we see this trend with tomorrows guidance models will be a few ticks colder at the sfc Flags for sure but we don’t need much to get a big dog back on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That H5 evolution on the GFs is a beaut Can anybody else get in on the fun other than E Mass? God it was old 5 yrs ago, it’s downright ridiculous now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Flags for sure but we don’t need much to get a big dog back on the table If we can get a slower occlusion I think we’ll get crushed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Can anybody else get in on the fun other than E Mass? God it was old 5 yrs ago, it’s downright ridiculous now. Oh absolutely. I would not rule out CCB traversing much of CT. He’ll it could even take it’s sweet time going across the state if that upper level evolution verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit. The NAM showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If we can get a slower occlusion I think we’ll get crushed. I’m not buying the fast occlusions either…that to seems off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, RikC said: climate change; atmospheric dynamics are evolving faster than the models can keep up!! Climate change is very much real and is accelerating, but I don’t think that’s why the models are struggling here. The models are struggling because it’s a Miller B. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That H5 evolution on the GFs is a beaut Pretty good deformation to the western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That is the definition of needle threader for EMA. The Surgical precision on that run. Maybe it works out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Anyways, gfs is way north, easily 100+ miles north of last run with the offshore low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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