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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I have always believed heights crashing that fast leads to snowier colder solutions. I also preach  closed sub 530 ULLS passing under us are a snowy solution. This has me baffled. Model outputs are no where near what I expected. 

This is what I mean…I agree with you. So I think this is where your knowledge and experience has to carry on, despite what a model is or isn’t showing. Real meteorology needs to be applied.  Walt Dragg agrees with you, and so does Tip.  

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

This is what I mean…I agree with you. So I think this is where your knowledge and experience has to carry on, despite what a model is or isn’t showing. Real meteorology needs to be applied.  Walt Dragg agrees with you, and so does Tip.  

That is also why emass weenies want to hear from Harvey Leonard . Legend .

 

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8 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

This is honestly crazy. Feel like literally nobody has any idea whats going on. Why does it almost seem like the models have gotten worse over the years?

They should be getting better based on this:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have always believed heights crashing that fast leads to snowier colder solutions. I also preach  closed sub 530 ULLS passing under us are a snowy solution. This has me baffled. Model outputs are no where near what I expected. 

That doesn't mean you are wrong?  Maybe we are wrong but when something appears off, you have to be wary of the modeled solution... Gut tells me just plot 500 and 700 tracks and ask yourself what normally would happen...  That's my starting point.

 

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4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

That doesn't mean you are wrong?  Maybe we are wrong but when something appears off, you have to be wary of the modeled solution... Gut tells me just plot 500 and 700 tracks and ask yourself what normally would happen...  That's my starting point.

 

This is what I mean. And something is very off with modeling today....things don’t make sense. 

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Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. 
 

But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

700 looks better too. Feeling a little better with the 00z suite so far. 

Yeah you really can’t ask for too much better in that regard. Seeing these makes me feel better, but there are enough other flags which still hold some weight. But I would at least think if we see this trend with tomorrows guidance models will be a few ticks colder at the sfc

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C02E5B00-BED0-4546-9F3C-A33F2F8FC575.thumb.png.3a6f58504b4883f08618aebfbeef9830.png9618C881-E5CF-4CF9-A2AF-7E2F2D6F0114.thumb.png.39ad4b0f4b92e02d7707fd24b9476cde.png
 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yeah you really can’t ask for too much better in that regard. Seeing these makes me feel better, but there are enough other flags which still hold some weight. But I would at least think if we see this trend with tomorrows guidance models will be a few ticks colder at the sfc

Flags for sure but we don’t need much to get a big dog back on the table 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Can anybody else get in on the fun other than E Mass? God it was old 5 yrs ago, it’s downright ridiculous now. 

Oh absolutely. I would not rule out CCB traversing much of CT. He’ll it could even take it’s sweet time going across the state if that upper level evolution verifies. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. 
 

But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit. 

The NAM showed that.

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15 minutes ago, RikC said:

climate change; atmospheric dynamics are evolving faster than the models can keep up!!

Climate change is very much real and is accelerating, but I don’t think that’s why the models are struggling here. The models are struggling because it’s a Miller B. 

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