Spanks45 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Christ So is there too much of a good thing? When is it congrats mid atlantic?Atlantic? Too much blocking is always a bit scary... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Spanks45 said: So is there too much of a good thing? When is it congrats mid atlantic?Atlantic? Too much blocking is always a bit scary... Was just thinking the same thing. Congrats MVY. What a winter for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: expectations are very very high I don't think so, we're just excited, you know...for like the 99.9% of members who like snow on this board. No one should be expecting anything at this timeframe, but it's a legitimate threat. And given the model trends and recent run-run consistency + ensembles coupled with this putrid winter and lack of snow, it's expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: I don't think so, we're just excited, you know...for like the 99.9% of members who like snow on this board. No one should be expecting anything at this timeframe, but it's a legitimate threat. And given the model trends and recent run-run consistency + ensembles coupled with this putrid winter and lack of snow, it's expected. wooosh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Is there a scenario where this is LBSW or too far south? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: So is there too much of a good thing? When is it congrats mid atlantic?Atlantic? Too much blocking is always a bit scary... 4 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Was just thinking the same thing. Congrats MVY. What a winter for them. Block is pretty east-based on this storm. Not really worried about big suppression. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: So is there too much of a good thing? When is it congrats mid atlantic?Atlantic? Too much blocking is always a bit scary... Not in this setup. It can only get so far SW given the timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'll take my chances with a too far southern track here. Right now, I'm liking where this might end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Wpc this afternoon sees a bit more of a CNE NNE évent but they’ll catch up. They like continuity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is there a scenario where this is LBSW or too far south? Hopefully if the block keeps trending for an earlier transfer we can get the trailing sw over the upper plains to dig in and help bomb this south of LI and not SE of CC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, MuddyOne said: Ugh. Flying out of Logan on the morning of 3/1. For once in my life, rooting for a storm to miss.... It's gonna hit. Sincerely, A Pats fan who rooted for the Bills, the Bengals, and then the Eagles in the Playoffs. You're not alone... I'll be flying out Monday...gonna miss the only storm of the season. Great. At this point though, should we just go for futility record? Morch is not when we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Wpc this afternoon sees a bit more of a CNE NNE évent but they’ll catch up. They like continuity I would not rule it out at all. Either way you'll snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not in this setup. It can only get so far SW given the timing. And the negative PNA SNE is golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Might as well lock in 12-24. Can go higher if needed. When are we expecting Kevin to make the pivot to snow/cold? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is there a scenario where this is LBSW or too far south? This system is a text book example of how to avoid it. Not worried. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Might as well lock in 12-24. Can go higher if needed. When are we expecting Kevin to make the pivot to snow/cold? Once he mails his check to Steve, he’ll be all in. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Might as well lock in 12-24. Can go higher if needed. When are we expecting Kevin to make the pivot to snow/cold? a few more runs and the HRKEV will cave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Might as well lock in 12-24. Can go higher if needed. When are we expecting Kevin to make the pivot to snow/cold? He’s in a dark place. Give him time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Once he mails his check to Steve, he’ll be all in. Why does that bother you so much? I just won’t support weed 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 every single one of us is wilding out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Been laid off since about the middle of January and was looking forward to being able to follow some storms. Been absolutely nothing and it’s been pretty dang annoying. All that will go away if this actually happens. How many more runs before we can ditch the idea of losing it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 the farthest south significant snow can get IMO is like Middlesex County, NJ. you guys in SNE are in a great spot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why does that bother you so much? I just won’t support weed ?? Has nothing to do with that but instead, you losing your less than 4” of snow bet. And the fact you mail checks is funny too. Like Don S in baseball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Block is pretty east-based on this storm. Not really worried about big suppression. 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not in this setup. It can only get so far SW given the timing. Good, after this winter I need to start checking off the what could go wrong scenarios before expectations rise past a coating that melts by 10 am... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the farthest south significant snow can get IMO is like Middlesex County, NJ. you guys in SNE are in a great spot Do you mind explaining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Good, after this winter I need to start checking off the what could go wrong scenarios before expectations rise past a coating that melts by 10 am... I want to see this continue through 12z runs tomorrow before I start chucking weenies. The trend today was obviously very potent and that is meaningful, but there is still enough lead time that average model error from this point can still screw us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Do you mind explaining? it would be difficult to suppress this storm that far S without an established west-based block. those usually have stronger confluence centered over ME with an east-based block, the confluence is a bit more tenuous and storms can gain latitude easier. my cutoff was a bit arbitrary, but i find it hard to see this getting suppressed. it’s far more likely that this trends back N rather than that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Been laid off since about the middle of January and was looking forward to being able to follow some storms. Been absolutely nothing and it’s been pretty dang annoying. All that will go away if this actually happens. How many more runs before we can ditch the idea of losing it? I would say by this time tomorrow we will be in better shape 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ?? Has nothing to do with that but instead, you losing your less than 4” of snow bet. And the fact you mail checks is funny too. Like Don S in baseball. I mean if it makes you sleep better and not quite so high. I’ll drive it to Moosup if need be .. (should I lose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it would be difficult to suppress this storm that far S without an established west-based block. those usually have stronger confluence centered over ME with an east-based block, the confluence is a bit more tenuous and storms can gain latitude easier. my cutoff was a bit arbitrary, but i find it hard to see this getting suppressed. it’s far more likely that this trends back N rather than that Well said. I’d worry more about a congrats pike north more than a congrats DC to Philly storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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