TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: You are overreacting a bit to individual model runs. We need to be looking for trends. It's just one run. If you see it again at noon, that's a trend toward a mundane solution. 6-10" is still a very good storm in this season. Right on the cusp of major. 6-10” won’t get any complaints from me. Good storm. Just get like the trend overnight was away from a big dog. Not mehing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d go SNE/CNE>NNE>NMidAtl By CNE you mean pike north to NH/VT border? If that’s the case I think you’re going to see a sharp west/east gradient in CNE. Higher amounts west, Lower amounts east. I like NJ and LI better than most of CNE for this one. And def better than NNE. At least right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 There wasn’t really any trending to mundane to begin with outside of the euro finally deciding it was time to put down the bong. With that said, other models decided to join the cypher…they’re just not willing to take big gravity bong rips. But, we’re collectively still high and on the same page. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 6-10” won’t get any complaints from me. Good storm. Just get like the trend overnight was away from a big dog. Not mehing Nah, I feel ya. I would just remind everyone we are still in a range where we will get noise, and 'chop' between different results. Basically building a range between potential outcomes. Still a little bit of lead time here where we will waffle back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 6-10” won’t get any complaints from me. Good storm. Just get like the trend overnight was away from a big dog. Not mehing Fair enough. Big dog is probably not gonna happen, but significant is fine in this horrific winter. We certainly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 It’s not 6-10, it’s 12-18 even on the weaker runs. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: By CNE you mean pike north to NH/VT border? If that’s the case I think you’re going to see a sharp west/east gradient in CNE. Higher amounts west, Lower amounts east. I like NJ and LI better than most of CNE for this one. At least right now. Yea. Pike to border I think has an equal shot at max snows as much as pike south to the coast. Even though we trended better with block and 50/50 to even have this discussion, it wouldn’t surprise me if it weakened a tad upon approach and the primary holds on longer. I could be wrong though if the block keeps being under modeled as it retros more westward so just my hedge at d5 for now. Fair points by you, no qualms. It’s nice to finally have a logical discussion on an event where I’m not choking your geese out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Pike to border I think has an equal shot at max snows as much as pike south to the coast. Even though we trended better with block and 50/50 to even have this discussion, it wouldn’t surprise me if it weakened a tad upon approach and the primary holds on longer. I could be wrong though if the block keeps being under modeled as it retros more westward so just my hedge at d5 for now. The guidance right now, looking at MJO and NAO forecasts, both point to strengthening the -NAO block up until go time. Maybe these are wrong…? But when I see EPS and GEFS following those forecasts, as I do now, I’m hedging in favor of a stronger block in 5 days than what is currently being shown across guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, George001 said: It’s not 6-10, it’s 12-18 even on the weaker runs. 12-18 is very much still on the table. I mean, don’t take my word for it, just read the GEFS and EPS verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 We haven’t seen a similar pattern to this since early to mid December. We had our little CT crusher during that timeframe, even with warm climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The guidance right now, looking at MJO and NAO forecasts, both point to strengthening the -NAO block up until go time. Maybe these are wrong…? But when I see EPS and GEFS following those forecasts, as I do now, I’m hedging in favor of a stronger block in 5 days than what is currently being shown across guidance. I can see that. Fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, George001 said: It’s not 6-10, it’s 12-18 even on the weaker runs. Depends for who but for the BATT crowd, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There wasn’t really any trending to mundane to begin with outside of the euro finally deciding it was time to put down the bong. With that said, other models decided to join the cypher…they’re just not willing to take big gravity bong rips. But, we’re collectively still high and on the same page. Yup, the GFS, GGEM and ICON ( since others seem to be using it...) all cut back some 15 or so % in the 00z. I wrote up a thread for this event, not realizing this one was created - I kept the prospect to "moderate/borderline major" ..which this series seems to gather around, and I'm sticking with it. For now. Firstly the Euro's eye-candy on the 12z was precarious because it was quite dependent on a bit of N/stream infusion, at the time ...out around D5. The -NAO was slowing the east propagation of the main disturbance, and that was allowing a Dakota S/W to catch up and partially infuse. It was really the only guidance source I could find doing that. Could still happen... but seeing it back off and fail continuity doesn't lend to thinking that sort of scenario will play in reality. The other models not having it...seem to coalesce into a consensus rather quickly during the day for an upper moderate event ... but it seems that a weaker total relay off the Pacific is correction - perhaps we are seeing a bit of "magnification" correction too. Incidentally, a latter one in the series out around the 3/4th now airs as more potency in these runs. The Euro Lakes cutters that... So much for the NAO in that model, huh... The GGEM and GFS try again toward more coastal commitment, but they don't seem very -NAO ish either, because there solutions are pretty fast. Not sure what's going on with that index overnight out in that time range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12-18 is very much still on the table. I mean, don’t take my word for it, just read the GEFS and EPS verbatim. The 40" solution we saw yesterday - wasn't that with the Kuchera algorithm? I don't know what that is, but doesn't it always output totals that are way higher than a 10:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t see how this can attain upper echelon status unless euro/eps continue to hammer a quicker secondary transfer with the addition of infusing the trailing sw to capture/stall. Gfs/cmc/icon are great, no doubt, but more of the standard NewEng 12-18” events away from the coast. I’ll hedge that way even though euro/eps found the snow first. Pretty spot on ... (I'm catching up ) ... I had this more or less in mind when I started the failed thread, kept the expectation to upper moderate. The Euro was alone in doing that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup, the GFS, GGEM and ICON ( since others seem to be using it...) all cut back some 15 or so % in the 00z. I wrote up a thread for this event, not realizing this one was created - I kept the prospect to "moderate/borderline major" ..which this series seems to gather around, and I'm sticking with it. For now. Firstly the Euro's eye-candy on the 12z was precarious because it was quite dependent on a bit of N/stream infusion, at the time ...out around D5. The -NAO was slowing the east propagation of the main disturbance, and that was allowing a Dakota S/W to catch up and partially infuse. It was really the only guidance source I could find doing that. Could still happen... but seeing it back off and fail continuity doesn't lend to thinking that sort of scenario will play in reality. The other models not having it...seem to coalesce into a consensus rather quickly during the day for an upper moderate event ... but it seems that a weaker total relay off the Pacific is correction - perhaps we are seeing a big of "magnification" correction too. Incidentally, a latter one in the series out around the 3/4th now airs as more potency in these runs. The Euro Lakes cutters that... So much for the NAO in that model, huh... The GGEM and GFS try again toward more coastal commitment, but they don't seem very -NAO ish either, because there solutions are pretty fast. Not sure what's going on with that index overnight out in that time range. Yea, noted on this system. And next weekend is all over the place. Euro is phase happy again blowing through the block while the gfs looks like a typical fast flow coastal. Cmc does seem to be a little slower and has that -nao costal evolution fwiw. We’ll cross that bridge though as 2/28 gets underway because really, there’s not much time to dissect 3/4…should it still be on the table. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Pretty spot on ... (I'm catching up ) ... I had this more or less in mind when I started the failed thread, kept the expectation to upper moderate. The Euro was alone in doing that... Yup and that’s to say, euro could be onto something…it’s possible we see the trailing sw trend closer on other guidance giving the big idea more credit. It’s not a far out concept just not something I would hedge on atm unless I manage to fall into a pair of George’s sneakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, jaf said: The 40" solution we saw yesterday - wasn't that with the Kuchera algorithm? I don't know what that is, but doesn't it always output totals that are way higher than a 10:1 ratio? Kuchie isn’t always higher. It varies with the situation. But those 35-40” amounts were a stretch. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 There will be a storm. I think it will be warning level up here not just SNE. The big solutions could be back, they’re not off the table, in another cycle. Not uncommon for models to lose the big solution but then come back to it in the end. The next one after intrigues me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Yesterday's runs were Goldilocks solutions and I don't think it's surprising at all that if you adjust the timing and positioning of certain features, all of a sudden the ceiling becomes much lower. Not saying this is a similar progression as what we saw in mid-late December, but it's a good reminder that the setup can be textbook but if certain pieces are misaligned, then it won't come together. All in all, with how this winter has gone, I don't think you can complain about a 6"+ mean with this lead time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'm not seeing anything historic about this next one right now, SECS, sure. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, noted on this system. And next weekend is all over the place. Euro is phase happy again blowing through the block while the gfs looks like a typical fast flow coastal. Cmc does seem to be a little slower and has that -nao costal evolution fwiw. We’ll cross that bridge though as 2/28 gets underway because really, there’s not much time to dissect 3/4…should it still be on the table. Good times! Yeah, they have vastly different solution envelopes for the 3/4th. They do have one trait in common: both a Lakes cutter, and a 'needle thread' bottle rocket coastal with no high pressure over Ontario/Quebec ... are both absent of -NAO help. Interesting.. haven't looked at the index field or numerics - but ...we keep in mind, these runs really have limited value above a single member in any ensemble cluster at this sort of time range. ..Maybe a little. The GGEM ...agreed, that looks more -NAO influenced. There's also a 'little critter' around the 2nd of March. I'll tell ya...we ought not neglect to keep and eye on that. I've seen these types of tortured determinism patterns before, and sometimes as the models tussle over the 28th and 4th ... the "one in the middle" ends up performing better than anyone thought it would. Not saying that is the case...but experienced model users know that that these tools can place too much or too little emphasis on any one wave in a series. All these are over the Pacific. The 28th is in fact currently an 'outside slider' off the California coast. The exit region of those jet mechanics are leading people to think it's onshore, but the ballast of what wind momentum matters to the 28th has to come aboard/round the trough axis as it tunnels onshore as a quasi closed low around 60 hours - so there's plenty of complexity there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Fair enough. Big dog is probably not gonna happen, but significant is fine in this horrific winter. We certainly take. I think there will be one by the time all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Kuchie isn’t always higher. It varies with the situation. But those 35-40” amounts were a stretch. Lol Kuchie is superior with respect to deformation snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm not seeing anything historic about this next one right now, SECS, sure. Considering I have .8 inches of snow for the season what these models are showing will feel historic to me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Huge storms are rare because so much needs to go right. Not much ultimately changed on the overnight runs, except timing of a few features, and that was enough to take the bigger solutions down a couple notches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm not seeing anything historic about this next one right now, SECS, sure. From an IMBY standpoint, the last 12 hours of trends have sucked in two ways....more progressive...ie less intense and faster due to 50/50 AND further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Huge storms are rare because so much needs to go right. Not much ultimately changed on the overnight runs, except timing of a few features, and that was enough to take the bigger solutions down a couple notches. Nailed it!! And it's all noise until it continues to do so over a couple of runs... We'll see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 If it's like an 8-12" ordeal, no sweat of my sack if it focused south...but a foot up here and 30" south of Boston would send me into orbit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 MJO on the Euro going into 8 at a good amplitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now