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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

expectations are very very high

I don't think so, we're just excited, you know...for like the 99.9% of members who like snow on this board. 

No one should be expecting anything at this timeframe, but it's a legitimate threat. And given the model trends and recent run-run consistency + ensembles coupled with this putrid winter and lack of snow, it's expected.

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I don't think so, we're just excited, you know...for like the 99.9% of members who like snow on this board. 

No one should be expecting anything at this timeframe, but it's a legitimate threat. And given the model trends and recent run-run consistency + ensembles coupled with this putrid winter and lack of snow, it's expected.

wooosh

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So is there too much of a good thing? When is it congrats mid atlantic?Atlantic? Too much blocking is always a bit scary...

 

4 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

Was just thinking the same thing. Congrats MVY. What a winter for them.

Block is pretty east-based on this storm. Not really worried about big suppression. 

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17 minutes ago, MuddyOne said:

Ugh. Flying out of Logan on the morning of 3/1. For once in my life, rooting for a storm to miss....

It's gonna hit.

Sincerely,

A Pats fan who rooted for the Bills, the Bengals, and then the Eagles in the Playoffs.




 

You're not alone... I'll be flying out Monday...gonna miss the only storm of the season. Great.

At this point though, should we just go for futility record? Morch is not when we want it. 

 

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Block is pretty east-based on this storm. Not really worried about big suppression. 

 

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not in this setup. It can only get so far SW given the timing. 

Good, after this winter I need to start checking off the what could go wrong scenarios before expectations rise past a coating that melts by 10 am...

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

 

Good, after this winter I need to start checking off the what could go wrong scenarios before expectations rise past a coating that melts by 10 am...

I want to see this continue through 12z runs tomorrow before I start chucking weenies. The trend today was obviously very potent and that is meaningful, but there is still enough lead time that average model error from this point can still screw us. 

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1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Do you mind explaining? 

it would be difficult to suppress this storm that far S without an established west-based block. those usually have stronger confluence centered over ME

with an east-based block, the confluence is a bit more tenuous and storms can gain latitude easier. my cutoff was a bit arbitrary, but i find it hard to see this getting suppressed. it’s far more likely that this trends back N rather than that

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5 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Been laid off since about the middle of January and was looking forward to being able to follow some storms. Been absolutely nothing and it’s been pretty dang annoying. All that will go away if this actually happens.

 

How many more runs before we can ditch the idea of losing it?

I would say by this time tomorrow we will be in better shape 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

?? Has nothing to do with that but instead, you losing your less than 4” of snow bet. And the fact you mail checks is funny too. Like Don S in baseball. 

I mean if it makes you sleep better and not quite so high. I’ll drive it to Moosup if need be .. (should I lose) 

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it would be difficult to suppress this storm that far S without an established west-based block. those usually have stronger confluence centered over ME

with an east-based block, the confluence is a bit more tenuous and storms can gain latitude easier. my cutoff was a bit arbitrary, but i find it hard to see this getting suppressed. it’s far more likely that this trends back N rather than that

Well said. I’d worry more about a congrats pike north more than a congrats DC to Philly storm.

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