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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree this synoptic setup is not a ridge linking up…there’s a clear 50/50 signal in between the positive height anomalies. Here’s 144h right as the storm is gearing up to form..the SE ridge offshore (more like a WAR there) puts my suppression concerns lower on the list…so I agree with scooter that this doesn’t really look like a whiff storm. I’d be more worried about ptype  

 

68400831-F45B-44F2-8F06-3C95FE6D51C2.png

Compression looks to be less of an issue here than the Tuesday deal, but not non existent. 

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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Let George do it.  I want to see the hyperbole.

My area could score, but it’s not a great setup for me if looking for big snow. Miller A and limited blocking favors more north. That said, it’s a really strong storm so the areas that stay snow will likely get a lot.

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8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Moving along like a rocket, this one is

Speed of movement is the most overrated element of a snowfall forecast. Get the moisture plus the well placed lift/dynamics and the rest will take care of itself given a favorable track. Missing out the additional 3-6" over 24 hours from shredded returns won't kill me.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Speed of movement is the most overrated element of a snowfall forecast. Get the moisture plus the well placed lift/dynamics and the rest will take care of itself given a favorable track. Missing out the additional 3-6" over 24 hours from shredded returns won't kill me.

True

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Speed of movement is the most overrated element of a snowfall forecast. Get the moisture plus the well placed lift/dynamics and the rest will take care of itself given a favorable track. Missing out the additional 3-6" over 24 hours from shredded returns won't kill me.

Agreed. I pulled 28” in about 8 or 9 hours in Jan ‘11. 

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Pay close attention and look beyond the weenies smearing themselves in KY Jelly during any south trends, as said trends may also come with a slow and inexorable march towards pedestrian.

That is it for the season for me if this one starts that shit....will cancel subscriptions promptly. 

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pay close attention and look beyond the weenies smearing themselves in KY Jelly during any south trends, as said trends may also come with a slow and inexorable march towards pedestrian.

That is it for the season for me if this one starts that shit....will cancel subscriptions promptly. 

There are 3 weeks plus of chances cancel at your own risk.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol March 4th fail? Anyways keep your script. Gonna be a while before snow season ends.

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Looks active too...see how Monday night goes for us down here, if the rug gets pulled for even us, it might be hard to trust any look. If that is even possible after this season. Even yesterday's half inch felt good, so there is that at least.

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