2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[NorthHillsWx]

54 minutes ago, Normandy said:

My point is this.  My man said on 9/19 that the MDR is relaxing and implying that the MDR is shutting down.  Models all show a very active MDR the next 8-10 days.  This same line if thinking was used to assume the last four weeks would not happen when all seasonal models said it would.  If modeling is showing an active MDR why imply El Niño is going to hamper it when there has been zero evidence of traditional El Niño impacts to hurricane development this year?
 

 You are right climo does begin to shut down the MDR but that goes without saying.  it’ll be interesting the studies done on this season

I said in 8-10 days it will begin to become more hostile. It still looks that way but in 6-8 days now. That doesn’t apply to the current wave which may develop before modeled shear increases, which looks substantial in MDR

[GaWx]

Fwiw, 12Z Euro says “Ridge Over Troubled Water” part two late next week with a second big (actually stronger) NE US surface high:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023092012&fh=216

[cptcatz]

18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay...

[CheeselandSkies]

8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay...

Stalls it right on the coast, too, Florence-style. Yuck.

[Kevin Reilly]

47 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay...

Yea Sandy Redux for sure right just further south.  We shall see very impressive though that would cause major problems!

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Fwiw, 12Z Euro says “Ridge Over Troubled Water” part two late next week with a second big (actually stronger) NE US surface high:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023092012&fh=216

Is JB copying my posts? I beat him to the punch by 4 hours  :

 I think that another home brew under the next big NE high late next week is much more likely than the 18Z GFS idea of that storm coming all the way to the CONUS. There’s no room for both and the 18Z GFS is an extreme outlier considering its own ensemble, other models, and climo (lateness for that kind of track). A home brew under a big and strong high OTOH wouldn’t be. Of course neither may happen.

[NorthHillsWx]

We have had at least 1 active storm every day since 8/20. So for a month straight, today, the Atlantic has had an active storm. That’s incredible 

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z UKMET dropped this from becoming a TC. UK goes through 168.

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (0Z) is too weak for this late in the season MDR storm to be classified a TC.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We have had at least 1 active storm every day since 8/20. So far a month straight, today, the Atlantic has had an active storm. That’s incredible 

Where has Ldub been?????? I guess he lost faith after his 0/0/0 august forecast. Expect his return after Nigel goes extra trop and we have a brief break. 
I think this season is a big sign of what’s to come in the future. Record warm OHC overwhelms traditional teleconnections.

[cptcatz]

Both areas, the MDR wave and the east coast system, are looking juicy this morning. Surprising neither are invests yet. 

[Normandy]

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Where has Ldub been?????? I guess he lost faith after his 0/0/0 august forecast. Expect his return after Nigel goes extra trop and we have a brief break. 
I think this season is a big sign of what’s to come in the future. Record warm OHC overwhelms traditional teleconnections.

This is the most super interesting thing to me too.  If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons?  What does a La Niña look like with record warmth?  What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts.

[ineedsnow]

90L now up

[csnavywx]

6 hours ago, Normandy said:

This is the most super interesting thing to me too.  If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons?  What does a La Niña look like with record warmth?  What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts.

Nino tends to suppress more over the Caribbean and GOM than it does out in the MDR or particularly the subtropical Atlantic. It's just that there's been a big expansion of the 26C isotherm both spatially and at depth over the last 40y (and especially the last few years) in these areas where a Nino won't really help stop development.

Obviously if you don't have a mod-strong Nino in place helping shear part of the basin, then this leaves open more area over time to higher SSTs and OHC. ENSO isn't the only game in town though, and changes to static stability via SAL intrusions and the West African Monsoon are important too.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET, like the 12Z GFS and even the 12Z ICON to a lesser extent, has ridge over troubled waters part 2 in about a week:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 80.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2023 156 30.8N 80.4W 1005 34
1200UTC 29.09.2023 168 32.2N 78.1W 1005 30

[Tallis Rockwell]

Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda.  Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

[Tallis Rockwell]

Just now, Tallis Rockwell said:

Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda.  Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

Idalia, Too many I-storms this decade!

[cptcatz]

6 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda.  Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

Interesting because if you asked somewhat what to expect with an El Nino and record hot Atlantic, that's exactly what you'd expect. 

[yoda]

 

[etudiant]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Interesting because if you asked somewhat what to expect with an El Nino and record hot Atlantic, that's exactly what you'd expect. 

So why was it not prominently chosen in the various hurricane forecasts? 

Certainly both the Nino conditions as well as the unusually warm Atlantic were discussed at great length.

[MattPetrulli]

Hmmmm

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Hmmmm

This is continued risk of ridge over troubled waters pt 2 with model consensus suggesting higher than avg TCG chance either NW Car, E GOM or SW Atlantic late next week underneath strong high in SE Can/NE US. 5 of 31 12Z GEFS have strong TS to H.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

A day old, but I was busy.  Lower Gulf pressures would rob convergence from the Caribbean, but one good cold front might fix that.  I'm a little impressed CV season is still going past the Equinox.

 

 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

A day old, but I was busy.  Lower Gulf pressures would rob convergence from the Caribbean, but one good cold front might fix that.  I'm a little impressed CV season is still going past the Equinox.

 

 

I’m not sure why Andy says lower hts over GOM  is opposite of ridge over troubled waters. Lower hts over GOM under high hts over NE US/SE Can: how is that opposite when it isn’t?

[cptcatz]

23 hours ago, etudiant said:

So why was it not prominently chosen in the various hurricane forecasts? 

Certainly both the Nino conditions as well as the unusually warm Atlantic were discussed at great length.

It was.  Look through the first couple pages of this thread.  A lot of talk about recurves and analogs to 2010 which had similar tracks.

[MattPetrulli]

We participate in a little of GFS trolling (just a tiny bit difference between runs) 

[GaWx]

 Related to the ridge over troubled waters idea of low pressure forming to the S of NE US/SE Canada high pressure due to lower level convergence leading to rising air and thus LP forming, a good number of 12Z model runs have something within 4-7 days. If over warm enough waters like in this case, it can lead to TCG. 

 The 12Z UKMET does this kind of thing just offshore the SE US on Thu (9/29) followed by very slow E movement for 3 days due to the blocking high sort of keeping it stuck. I don’t know whether or not this is directly related to the @wdragthread idea (thus I’ll probably post this there, too). But whether a system forms as he described it or something further S, a home brew (TC or STC) forming within a week or so just off the E coast seems likely to me:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 32.2N  78.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 29.09.2023  108  32.5N  77.1W     1011            29
    1200UTC 29.09.2023  120  33.3N  76.6W     1010            29
    0000UTC 30.09.2023  132  34.8N  75.0W     1010            32
    1200UTC 30.09.2023  144  34.4N  74.1W     1009            36
    0000UTC 01.10.2023  156  33.4N  73.4W     1007            34
    1200UTC 01.10.2023  168  33.1N  72.4W     1005            34

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 hours ago, EliasDePoot said:

Which hurricanes might be retired? 

I don't think any will go. 

Idalia has a decent shot at retirement.  As far as the never ending CV/Atlantic MDR season, 91L, although intensity guidance seems to suggest it may not become a hurricane.  SHIPS shear increases to near 30 knots in 3 days.

[nycwinter]

i think as of right now idalia will be the only storm to be retired..

[Floydbuster]

I suspect we still have more activity to come. 

[NorthHillsWx]

15 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i think as of right now idalia will be the only storm to be retired..

Maybe. I would be a bit surprised if Idalia was retired, seemed to be more bark than bite.

9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I suspect we still have more activity to come. 

Agree. We will have a NW Caribbean/GOM storm. We’re reaching that time period