GaWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Did we have 2 systems upgraded to named storms in a single day last year? Of course not. I think we'll have 3 named storms in 3 days, but the numbers will be 3/1/0 for August, Maybe 4/1/0. I think a below normal numbers and ACE season, but nothing like the LDub season cancel. Gulf has poor steering and shear/dry air, but I'd bet money on a major hurricane landfalling Florida in October. The OHC will still be immense in 2 months, and normal (climatological) mean steering favors Gulf to Florida. Probably not a storm with enough lifespan to make ACE normal, but a short lived Cat 3 or 4 is a Cat 3 or 4. Looking for a model that supports thay, none so far. A 5/2/2 August would not be a big shocker considering the # of features being followed/modeled as well as the very warm Atlantic. So, I'd say most likely anywhere from 3/1/0 to 5/2/2. As was just posted, Franklin becoming a MH wouldn't be that surprising. Ldub's highly successful career as a pure entertainer/troll stretches for two decades although even he/she can end up right at times due as much to luck as anything. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 I'm predicting Nino 3.4 will be +1.3 in tomorrow's weekly release, not too far from getting into the strong category. Yet, this hurricane season is now about as busy as can be in terms of number of features being followed south of 30N! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 TD-6 has been upgraded to Gert...unfortunately. Needless to say I don't think this one's going to put up a lot of ACE Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023 Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt. Conventional enhanced infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the same region of the cyclone. Accordingly, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory. No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are required. Since the environment is still expected to be hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so, Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and dissipate by Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0400Z 16.7N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: TD-6 has been upgraded to Gert...unfortunately. Needless to say I don't think this one's going to put up a lot of ACE Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023 Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt. Conventional enhanced infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the same region of the cyclone. Accordingly, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory. No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are required. Since the environment is still expected to be hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so, Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and dissipate by Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0400Z 16.7N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts Honestly hilarious, at the 11 PM advisory they said it was dying and it immediately blows up and becomes a storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Did we have 2 systems upgraded to named storms in a single day last year? Of course not. I think we'll have 3 named storms in 3 days, but the numbers will be 3/1/0 for August, Maybe 4/1/0. I think a below normal numbers and ACE season, but nothing like the LDub season cancel. Gulf has poor steering and shear/dry air, but I'd bet money on a major hurricane landfalling Florida in October. The OHC will still be immense in 2 months, and normal (climatological) mean steering favors Gulf to Florida. Probably not a storm with enough lifespan to make ACE normal, but a short lived Cat 3 or 4 is a Cat 3 or 4. Looking for a model that supports thay, none so far. -With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/1/0. -Gert now joins Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Emily as names that go back at least to 1981 and which will return in the 2029 list. - Arlene at 12 times had already been the most frequently used Atlantic name through 2023. Now it will be back for at least #13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: -With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/1/0. -Gert now joins Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Emily as names that go back at least to 1981 and which will return in the 2029 list. - Arlene at 12 times had already been the most frequently used Atlantic name through 2023. Now it will be back for at least #13. Gert probably should have been retired after the '93 version caused extensive fatalities and damage in Mexico and Central America https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gert 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 I was envisioning 91L becoming a Category 1 Hurricane "Gert" into South Texas/Northern Mexico. I guess now it'd be Harold. I swear, the wave off Africa better be a fish because I do not want another infamous "I" storm, and the long-range models show another wave leaving Africa after the current one and being more a potential threat to landmasses west. If TD-6 hadn't become Gert, then the Gulf would have likely been Gert, the wave off Africa currently could have become Harold, setting up the next wave with more of a threat potential to be "Idalia". With TD-6 becoming Gert, this now wouldn't happen. It would likely be "Jose". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Well it looks like all three pieces of the former monsoon trough got named 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 6 hours ago, GaWx said: -With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/1/0. 3-0-0. There has not been a hurricane yet. Franklin may try 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 3-0-0. There has not been a hurricane yet. Franklin may try Franklin is the only one that looks worthy enough to have a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Hurriquake is now the new term. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/magnitude-51-earthquake-strikes-southern-california-2023-08-20/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Franklin is the only one that looks worthy enough to have a name. Emily was legit for a while. Gert makes little sense to me but I think it’s scientifically valid I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Franklin is the only one that looks worthy enough to have a name. Gert and emily should never have been named. Just getting numbers up. Euro has come way down on Frankie. I dont know about 1893 but comparing this garbage to 1995 is beyond a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes. Im not even sure Gert was more than a single thunderstorm gust. I woke up and saw Gert this morning and looked at the satellite and immediately became confused as to what actually constituted Gert bc whatever was there last night was already completely gone. Never have I missed the formation and death of a named storm while I slept 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Im not even sure Gert was more than a single thunderstorm gust. I woke up and saw Gert this morning and looked at the satellite and immediately became confused as to what actually constituted Gert bc whatever was there last night was already completely gone. Never have I missed the formation and death of a named storm while I slept Same. I thought they named 91L but then I was like wait what?!? After all the defending I do of the NHC they do this to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Emily was legit for a short time and Gert was an absolute joke. Never would have been named back in the 70's, 80's or 90's. There is just more of this going on in recent years. System in the Gulf "has the look" but will run out of water before it can get out of hand. Thinking it will be designated at least a depression and MAYBE a TS. Regardless, it will bring much needed rainfall to Texas. Franklin only one of the bunch that will generate any meaningful ACE points. Any comparison of this "burst" of names to 1995 is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 How was Gert a joke? It’s had an LLC for days and has been producing consistent convection. I get that y’all want your El Niño numbers but science is science guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: 3-0-0. There has not been a hurricane yet. Franklin may try Oops, yes, 3-0-0. I think I was looking ahead at Franklin model projections to become a H down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 9 hours ago, SI Mailman said: Gert probably should have been retired after the '93 version caused extensive fatalities and damage in Mexico and Central America https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gert Mexico had a history of not often requesting retirement of names until the past 10 years or so. Emily (2005) was a good example of that. Struck Mexico twice as a major caused $1B damage in 2005 and wasn't retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, MANDA said: Emily was legit for a short time and Gert was an absolute joke. Never would have been named back in the 70's, 80's or 90's. There is just more of this going on in recent years. System in the Gulf "has the look" but will run out of water before it can get out of hand. Thinking it will be designated at least a depression and MAYBE a TS. Regardless, it will bring much needed rainfall to Texas. Franklin only one of the bunch that will generate any meaningful ACE points. Any mention of this "burst" to 1995 is absurd. A couple of us just yesterday were talking about how the NHC has been too slow this season to date in upgrading systems vs years like 2020 and possibly overreacting to criticism then. Example: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 I mean a bunch of one day minimal TS is not going to catch anyone’s attention but Gert still being a TS surprises me. The center is way removed from the convection and looks to be completely falling apart under franklins outflow and though there might be a few 35kt winds in that thunderstorm it just doesn’t look like the definition of a tropical cyclone to me. The storms on top of the LLC aren’t even associated to Gert, it is that sheared 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 The center of frank appears to be about to zip out of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 I wonder if all this activity, though weak, may work to mix the ocean up and decrease some of the crazy hot SST anomalies we’ve had to this point. A large % of the basin is covered in Clouds and rain from all of these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I wonder if all this activity, though weak, may work to mix the ocean up and decrease some of the crazy hot SST anomalies we’ve had to this point. A large % of the basin is covered in Clouds and rain from all of these storms I'd think this should help cool the water some. But as of yesterday per OISST, the MDR SST anomaly was still very warm and actually it had warmed the last three days: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Emily done... Gert will be done by this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Emily done... Gert will be done by this evening Might be less than 2 ACE points between them when all is said and done. Gert will hang on until 5 pm as a named system only because they didn't pull the plug at 11, which they easily could have done. Looks pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Years ago this would have been a very quiet season and way lower in the alphabet with named storms. Now with better technology and naming subtropical storms, we go thru the alphabet a lot faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 NHC just padding the stats. Puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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