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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


Ji
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The 25th chance is a thread the needle deal- the timing of that upper low shifting into the 50-50 region allows for the convergence/confluence necessary to develop a well timed surface HP wedging southward with just enough cold into our region. It exits stage right pretty quickly as there is no block(yet).

1677326400-f3h3uKssnKQ.png

1677326400-zKsIr5hoMcU.png

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The 25th chance is a thread the needle deal- the timing of that upper low shifting into the 50-50 region allows for the convergence/confluence necessary to develop a well timed surface HP wedging southward with just enough cold into our region. It exits stage right pretty quickly as there is no block(yet).
1677326400-f3h3uKssnKQ.png
1677326400-zKsIr5hoMcU.png

Doesn’t seem like the most ideal setup if we want snow from start to finish, especially in late Feb. I’m starting to realize the importance of having blocking up top, otherwise these high pressure systems are just gonna keep doing hit and runs with heights seemingly too high in between.
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This is a legit west based block. Nearly perfect dipole position/orientation. And it's just enough to get somewhat below normal temps into the MA in the presence of the super -PNA.

eta: a -NAO isn't normally associated with super cold air in general. The point is it barely keeps the SE ridge in check in this case, and instead of the thermal boundary being clearly to our south(as it typically would be with a block) it is further NW, so storms will still have a tendency to track to our north/west.

1678104000-W1b4tCgHtOI.png

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is a legit west based block. Nearly perfect dipole position/orientation. And it's just enough to get somewhat below normal temps into the MA in the presence of the super -PNA.

eta: a -NAO isn't normally associated with super cold air in general. The point is it barely keeps the SE ridge in check in this case, and instead of the thermal boundary being clearly to our south(as it typically would be with a block) it is further NW, so storms will still have a tendency to track to our north/west.

1678104000-W1b4tCgHtOI.png

Still think that NAO never fully stops retrograding from Scandinavia and eventually links up with the SER in a full lat ridge feature. I think our window is Feb 25-March 6 though Chuck claims the best window actually follows as the full lat ridge breaks and reloads up top after the 8th. What are your thoughts on the NAO/SER hookup?

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7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Still think that NAO never fully stops retrograding from Scandinavia and eventually links up with the SER in a full lat ridge feature. I think our window is Feb 25-March 6 though Chuck claims the best window actually follows as the full lat ridge breaks and reloads up top after the 8th. What are your thoughts on the NAO/SER hookup?

It's always possible given the persistent deep trough out west. As I have said, it is likely going to take a strong west-based -NAO to inhibit that. Latest EPS runs are getting it done. Suppresses the SE ridge more so than the GEFS with a well positioned, strong block the end of Feb into March. 

1678039200-65BcZRo0rxY.png

 

Retrogrades it into an ideal position by the 5th.

1678060800-JZ09b11SCQs.png

 

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