Amped Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Got a block and a 50/50 low for once. We manage to cash in while it lasts this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Now we await the Euro ENS which, as always, will laugh at the OP A bit of a signal showing on the mean but a ton of spread among the members with lows all over the place. Still a ways out there obviously, but the look at H5 has cold pressing, suggesting the boundary may be to our south- a rare occurrence this winter and a necessary first step. Flatten that fucking SE ridge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Look at the Pacific, and how there was a deep downstream trough in Russia, under a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: A bit of signal showing on the mean but a ton of spread among the members with lows all over the place. Still a ways out there obviously, but the look at H5 has cold pressing, suggesting the boundary may be to our south- a rare occurrence this winter and a necessary first step. Flatten that fucking SE ridge. the EPS now has a classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. I know that everyone is snakebitten, but this block is becoming stronger and moving up in time hard not to get a bit excited when you see a retrograding block like this 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Pretty workable look for early March on the EPS. Legit -NAO dipole mitigating the awful Pacific enough to erase the SE ridge. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 ^Slightly ninja'd lol. Great minds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Yet even still the 540 never makes it south. Just like all the others at least on Euro…and the GLL says hello yet again I noticed that, too. I think next weekend’s system would rely on a well-timed strong surface high (CAD) in the right spot at the right time. After looking at the GFS and glossing over the Euro, it seems like it would be mostly an overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: ^Slightly ninja'd lol. Great minds. I am totally fine with the -PNA there if we have a west based block. wavelengths are short enough that it's not as much of an issue as Dec 2021, for example. also, it would give a continuous stream of shortwaves to roll underneath. great pattern verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I am totally fine with the -PNA there if we have a west based block. wavelengths are short enough that it's not as much of an issue as Dec 2021, for example. also, it would give a cotinuous stream of shortwaves to roll underneath. great pattern verbatim In general I agree, but a bit less -PNA would be better. Seeing some signs of a slightly weaker Aleutian ridge on the means by early March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just one 6" snowfall would salvage this wreck of a winter for me. That would put me at roughly a third of average, but I will take it. Most here would, but for those further NW I get that it would still suck relative to their average. We are all beggars at this point. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I'd start the thread 36 hours before the storm starts. You ARE THE MAN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: I'd start the thread 36 hours before the storm starts. THIS, lol Like I said a little while ago, the whole idea of starting a separate thread when there's not much else going on seems a bit silly to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: THIS, lol Like I said a little while ago, the whole idea of starting a separate thread when there's not much else going on seems a bit silly to me. Just about as silly as the jinx thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: THIS, lol Like I said a little while ago, the whole idea of starting a separate thread when there's not much else going on seems a bit silly to me. Your posts are never about anything important, but I agree. Randy has the final say about threads for any storm that could salvage this god forsaken “winter.” Threads don’t affect the weather though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just about as silly as the jinx thing. Yall know my position on the jinx bs, lol. I was just joking. But I wouldn't recommend starting a thread at like Day 7 or something like that. Personally I'd prob do 4 days with the way this shitty winter has gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just about as silly as the jinx thing. Yeah as far as that's concerned I don't think that's a thing...we just act like it is, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Your posts are never about anything important, but I agree. Randy has the final say about threads for any storm that could salvage this god forsaken “winter.” Threads don’t affect the weather though… HEY--it's called IGNORE! Y'all are driving me up the wall throwin' the past right back at me when I'm doing trying to do better. Get on my frickin' nerves all of you! How about if somebody held all YOUR mistakes over your head for the rest of YOUR life??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: HEY--it's called IGNORE! Y'all are driving me up the wall throwin' the past right back at me when I'm doing better. You tell me what I posted wrong ya jerk No reason to ignore you, it’s not like you’re a bad person for your posts. You just need some snow to cure the disease you’ve come up with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 55 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just one 6" snowfall would salvage this wreck of a winter for me. That would put me at roughly a third of average, but I will take it. Most here would, but for those further NW I get that it would still suck relative to their average. We are all beggars at this point. I'm a little interested in this potential. I just know not to get vested. I just as well rather go straight into summer at this point tho. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm a little interested in this potential. I just know not to get vested. I just as well rather go straight into summer at this point tho. False hope is indeed the worst kind of hope. Getting a boundary south of us and any resemblance of blocking/a cold antecedent airmass at least makes it make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yall know my position on the jinx bs, lol. I was just joking. But I wouldn't recommend starting a thread at like Day 7 or something like that. Personally I'd prob do 4 days with the way this shitty winter has gone. Yeah in general 3 or 4 days out seems reasonable. Unless the Med-LR is super busy with tracking possible threats, which it absolutely isn't this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: No reason to ignore you, it’s not like you’re a bad person for your posts. You just need some snow to cure the disease you’ve come up with. Well then leave me the heck alone and stop throwing shots for no reason whatsoever. What disease "have I come up with"? What? We all want snow and miss it, I just have to continue to get better of managing it and not making it too big of a thing. But it gets harder to do that if y'all keep attacking me after the fact. I'd still like to converse because we're all snow weenies, but now I'm afraid every post no matter what (and no matter how few posts on the day) is gonna get ridiculed just because of before. Can't please nobody, smh ....I'm sorry I derailed the thread. But I had to go on the defensive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well then leave me the heck alone and stop throwing shots for no reason whatsoever. What disease "have I come up with"? What? We all want snow and miss it, I just have to continue to get better of managing it and not making it a big thing. But it gets harder to do that if y'all keep attacking me after the fact. I'd still like to converse because we're all snow weenies, but now I'm afraid every post no matter what (and no matter how few posts on the day) is gonna get ridiculed just because of before. Can't please nobody, smh ....I'm sorry I derailed the thread. But I had to go on the defensive again. You are doing better with your posts, but you need to stop doing this. Just ignore it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18z GFS decent for next Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS decent for next Saturday That’s a bonanza based on this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS decent for next Saturday It has been pretty persistent. The 12z Canadian was further south than previous run and similar to the GFS. Euro op has been north, and all 3 ensembles have had a relatively weak signal for our region and stronger to our north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS decent for next Saturday I doubt it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well then leave me the heck alone and stop throwing shots for no reason whatsoever. What disease "have I come up with"? What? We all want snow and miss it, I just have to continue to get better of managing it and not making it too big of a thing. But it gets harder to do that if y'all keep attacking me after the fact. I'd still like to converse because we're all snow weenies, but now I'm afraid every post no matter what (and no matter how few posts on the day) is gonna get ridiculed just because of before. Can't please nobody, smh ....I'm sorry I derailed the thread. But I had to go on the defensive again. It wasn’t an attack… the fact that you get in this mindset on a weather thread alone is probably part of the problem. We all want it just as bad as you. I know a lot of people have gone on the offensive with you, and my post was a little passive aggressive at you…but hardly an attack. That being said, you can always vent to me here, I’d prefer via PM’s though. the Gfs is conjuring up your cure potion for next week anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Anyway, 222 18z GFS is interesting. Front end thump looks like. Still snow/mix at 228 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Anyway, 222 18z GFS is interesting. Front end thump looks like I see a quick thump at 219 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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