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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


Ji
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I think we should be tracking precip at this point. It’s not even a sure thing that we get anything from this system. We already know the uphill battle in temps given the 5 days of milder weather leading in. The 250mb map shows that there’s just little or no phasing with the northern stream, so how far north this goes is the real question. I’m hoping for precip bc I have the Catoctin’s at 1000ft+ on my doorstep…worst case, maybe I can drive up there for a hike and snow tv. Michaux would be tempting as well if the system gets that far north.

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem is where is it pulling the cold from???  there is no cold to tap to our north within 500 miles.  The only cold is the pocket of dynamically cooled air.
D0904F07-19EB-46BC-8230-3558F23134C7.thumb.png.c8be1ab9cb6ab3eee2363f004300a2f9.png
The slight imperfection that doomed the euro control was the slow movement and early close off of the upper low allowing us to be under easterly flow for too long. Plus by the time the system gets here it’s vertically stacked and not amplifying which is worse for dynamic cooling.  Also there is a limit. We’re not asking to cool a marginal column with a wet bulb of 36 degrees. On that run the boundary is torched. It’s too much to overcome no matter how heavy the precip is.  

Yes, I was wrong to say pull in cold air, I meant generate its own cold air.  I am not as well versed in meteorology as others in here, but I have followed snowstorms closely since I was a kid. I do think there are some that are getting caught up on certain things (like mid level and ground temps) and being too dismissive about snow chances. Either way, I appreciate your breakdowns as I try to get better educated. 

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1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah, even if we get a "perfect" solution it probably won't be good enough for the metros.  Just too warm unfortunately.  

mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south 

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

850's are warmer than 6z so far :(

This thing cutting off so far south isn’t going to do us any favors. We need it to cutoff farther north so there’s still some meager amount of cold air aloft when it gets here. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south 

Yeah, goal posts ever so narrow.  There is no cold air anywhere to be found in the entire CONUS for this storm though.  540 thickness line in Montreal isn't usually good for us lol.  

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