Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 So...is it too early to discuss whether there's a Hunga Tunga connection? Lol I mean, that was a year ago...ya got both sides the hemisphere struggling with warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: So...is it too early to discuss whether there's a Hunga Tunga connection? Lol I mean, that was a year ago...ya got both sides the hemisphere struggling with warmth... Not much water vapor has gotten into the northern hemisphere and basically none got into the northern stratosphere winter PV. So if there is any connection, I think it’s subtle and through some other feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Lol, Op GFS goes one way and GEFS actually goes toward more of a southern slider without turning up the coast. Weeeeee… 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 digital blue!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol, Op GFS goes one way and GEFS actually goes toward more of a southern slider without turning up the coast. Weeeeee… And if I were a betting man I'd say the Euro will look the same! Alright folks so we got raging cutter or nothin' at the moment, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol, Op GFS goes one way and GEFS actually goes toward more of a southern slider without turning up the coast. Weeeeee… In my eyes that’s a much more likely scenario than the cutter to fill stop slide east version the op just spit out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: digital blue!! I just went back and looked at previous runs and it never looked even close to this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: I just went back and looked at previous runs and it never looked even close to this. yeah no need for a freak out tbh CMCE kinda got worse tho but it has like 20 members it’s quite underdispersive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: digital blue!! But when does that fall? Is any of it this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: In my eyes that’s a much more likely scenario than the cutter to fill stop slide east version the op just spit out. The only issue is we haven't seen any in between solutions pop up yet. So even in the "better" of the two it's still a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: But when does that fall? Is any of it this weekend? The 4 day is almost identical east of the highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 some absolute monsters in here too, including a 2016 redux. lmao 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But when does that fall? Is any of it this weekend? all of it besides like 0.1-0.3” is from that 15th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some absolute monsters in here too, including a 2016 redux. lmao p8 would likely make some happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some absolute monsters in here too, including a 2016 redux. lmao Yes, P8 and then I’m ready for the golf season, which still hasn’t ended lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some absolute monsters in here too, including a 2016 redux. lmao I think the potential to go back to back on storms is at least possible next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 The storm next weekend has a lot of potential I would think. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12z EURO has a stripe of maybe an inch for Sunday in CVA but it’s generally a light rain/snow mix and not much to show for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 really? NW a week out? okAbsolutely not. The GFS has always had a SE / progressive bias. Not sure how much that’s changed since the upgrade but that’s always been the case pre upgrade. If a storm is cutting well NW of us on the GFS in a relatively progressive pattern, that’s usually a failure in the making. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Absolutely not. The GFS has always had a SE / progressive bias. Not sure how much that’s changed since the upgrade but that’s always been the case pre upgrade. If a storm is cutting well NW of us on the GFS in a relatively progressive pattern, that’s usually a failure in the making. . For that December cutter, the GFS held onto the S/E solutions and was the last to cave. This time, it's the other way around. Euro is still S/E while CMC and GFS went cutter (at least the Op runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I believe the EURO may do what we need to be done. At least with the Ocean low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: I believe the EURO may do what we need to be done. At least with the Ocean low? Was just going to comment on that. At 144, a piece of the TPV is swinging down to phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, LP08 said: Was just going to comment on that. At 144, a piece of the TPV is swinging down to phase with it. Keep going 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Was just going to comment on that. At 144, a piece of the TPV is swinging down to phase with it. Looks nothing like the GFS. I'm up to 156, comparing the two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Differences in that area (maritime ME) are remarkable vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 What we want doesn't match the geography of our area... 99% of our storms are crazy rare things happening at the right time.I don’t think this is true whatsoever. The midatlantic doesn’t do complicated well. Complicated setups often result in things coming together too early (cutter) or too late (NYC to BOS special) Some of our best patterns (feb 2010 for instance) were simple setups with a cold high entrenched to our north and a storm track that took storms off the NC VA coast. The “geography of our area” is exactly why we typically need simple for things to work. When we start talking Miller b’s, triple phases, bomb cyclones, yada yada… the likelihood of failure goes up exponentially. There’s a reason we typically do better with overrunning events and Miller A’s than we do with Miller B’s. The former is simpler than the latter. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 ECMWF looks very interesting with an ULL over the NE US and a very potent S/W. pretty classic look here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 So the Euro is phasing the TPV so it should in theory hold in cold air a lot better than cmc and gfs did, well see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 As others have stated, Night and day comparing that piece over northern New England compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Double close low at H5, 186hr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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