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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...is it too early to discuss whether there's a Hunga Tunga connection? Lol I mean, that was a year ago...ya got both sides the hemisphere struggling with warmth...

Not much water vapor has gotten into the northern hemisphere and basically none got into the northern stratosphere winter PV. So if there is any connection, I think it’s subtle and through some other feedback. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol, Op GFS goes one way and GEFS actually goes toward more of a southern slider without turning up the coast. Weeeeee…

In my eyes that’s a much more likely scenario than the cutter to fill stop slide east version the op just spit out.

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really?  NW a week out?  ok

Absolutely not. The GFS has always had a SE / progressive bias. Not sure how much that’s changed since the upgrade but that’s always been the case pre upgrade. If a storm is cutting well NW of us on the GFS in a relatively progressive pattern, that’s usually a failure in the making.


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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Absolutely not. The GFS has always had a SE / progressive bias. Not sure how much that’s changed since the upgrade but that’s always been the case pre upgrade. If a storm is cutting well NW of us on the GFS in a relatively progressive pattern, that’s usually a failure in the making.


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For that December cutter, the GFS held onto the S/E solutions and was the last to cave.

This time, it's the other way around. Euro is still S/E while CMC and GFS went cutter (at least the Op runs).

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I believe the EURO may do what we need to be done.  At least with the Ocean low?

Was just going to comment on that.  At 144, a piece of the TPV is swinging down to phase with it.

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What we want doesn't match the geography of our area...
99% of our storms are crazy rare things happening at the right time.

I don’t think this is true whatsoever. The midatlantic doesn’t do complicated well. Complicated setups often result in things coming together too early (cutter) or too late (NYC to BOS special) Some of our best patterns (feb 2010 for instance) were simple setups with a cold high entrenched to our north and a storm track that took storms off the NC VA coast. The “geography of our area” is exactly why we typically need simple for things to work.

When we start talking Miller b’s, triple phases, bomb cyclones, yada yada… the likelihood of failure goes up exponentially. There’s a reason we typically do better with overrunning events and Miller A’s than we do with Miller B’s. The former is simpler than the latter.


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