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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


Kmlwx
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22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Storm impacting Baltimore is SVR warned, for some reason.

I was outside watching all the eagles flying around in the wind and then I heard the front coming in was pretty loud, one little bit of thunder and then it roared through here at 40 mph

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Very active late February/early March period forecast to occur; perhaps we can sneak some of that up there?

And, yeah, an EF2 in New Jersey in February is pretty impressive. Mercer also had an EF2 in 2021, and then there was the Ida outbreak a month later. New Jersey is the new Kansas.

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Seems as if Friday severe potential around here — such as it was— is evaporating as quickly as the winter storm potential did a few days ago. 
 

I’m sure we’ll get 5 or 6 Wind Advisories in the next week or two, though. Maybe a Dense Fog Advisory as well, to make things really memorable. 

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1 hour ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Seems as if Friday severe potential around here — such as it was— is evaporating as quickly as the winter storm potential did a few days ago. 
 

I’m sure we’ll get 5 or 6 Wind Advisories in the next week or two, though. Maybe a Dense Fog Advisory as well, to make things really memorable. 

I wasn't even watching it - seems any severe parameters were shunted south and east of us if anything. Meh. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Saturday maybe? From afternoon LWX AFD 

 

An embedded shortwave within the broad upper trough is expected
to move into the Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday. The
stalled cold front to the south will advance northward as a
strong warm front associated the the low pressure system in the
Ohio Valley approaches from the west. This feature will bring
more rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
chances will be dependent on how quickly the cold air wedge
clears out. If thunderstorm activity isn`t suppressed, there is
the potential for some severe given decent CAPE and around 60
kts of shear. Current guidance keeps the area wedged in through
the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures
will be dependent on the timing of wedge breaking, but for now
have upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area right around
sunset.
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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Saturday maybe? From afternoon LWX AFD 

 

An embedded shortwave within the broad upper trough is expected
to move into the Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday. The
stalled cold front to the south will advance northward as a
strong warm front associated the the low pressure system in the
Ohio Valley approaches from the west. This feature will bring
more rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
chances will be dependent on how quickly the cold air wedge
clears out. If thunderstorm activity isn`t suppressed, there is
the potential for some severe given decent CAPE and around 60
kts of shear. Current guidance keeps the area wedged in through
the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures
will be dependent on the timing of wedge breaking, but for now
have upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area right around
sunset.

You know how these things go, @yoda - wedge will win this time of year! But maybe we pull a miracle early season thunderstorm event for our sorrows of no snow during the winter. 

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Well surprise lol

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

MDC021-031-VAC107-240400-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230324T0400Z/
Montgomery MD-Frederick MD-Loudoun VA-
1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTH
CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHEASTERN
LOUDOUN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

At 1143 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near
Germantown, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Germantown, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Boyds,
Clarksburg, Darnestown, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Barnesville, Park
Mills, Dickerson, Beallsville, Dawsonville and Tuscarora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 7753 3938 7738 3929 7715 3910 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 298DEG 43KT 3924 7735

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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