GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 hours ago, JoshM said: almost forgot... but it should just say "we're closed just temporarily" because: - something interesting for especially parts of NC/VA next week can't yet be ruled out, which is normally the case when looking over a week out during the heart of winter with progged very cold air not too far away - The North Pole is progged on the 12Z GEFS to warm in the stratosphere at 10 mb a whopping ~45 C/81 F within the 5 day period from 1/23 to 1/28, which would be due to a SSW (though maybe not technically a "major" one). With this kind of warming, a change to a multi-week cold dominated pattern is quite possible in the E US starting maybe as early as ~Feb 10th (call it mid-Feb), especially if the MJO is not then outside the COD in phases 4-5 and the +NAO ends. - This is despite the infrequency in having a cold Feb during La Niña. Infrequency doesn't mean it can't get cold. Also, only 18 of the last 34 (53%) La Niña Febs have actually been 2+ warmer than normal (what I consider AN) at KATL. So, that is barely more than a coin flip. The number of torches (5+ AN) is only 9 of those 34 (26%). So, the idea of a mild Feb during La Niña, while higher than the typical chance, is nowhere near a guarantee. Near normal occurred 11 times (32%) and BN 5 times (15%). With this progged late January strong SSW, I'd put the odds of an AN Feb at well under the typical 53% chance and increase the chance of normal or BN to higher than the typical 47%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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