January 2023

[stemwinder]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

@stemwinder would probably know

 

Jan 26 2011 gave us a stemwinder of a storm.  Here's the morning after in Central NJ:

[Bxstormwatcher360]

For a storm thats supposed to be far away,i can't help but notice the winds picking up and on and off snow showers and flurries most of the day. Rn its snowing lightly here in the bx and i expect the radar to expand as the storm approaches.

 

 

[lee59]

Winter alive and well out west. Nice to see a dent put in the drought.

 

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

For a storm thats supposed to be far away,i can't help but notice the winds picking up and on and off snow showers and flurries most of the day. Rn its snowing lightly here in the bx and i expect the radar to expand as the storm approaches.

 

 

It would be exciting if there were a renegade TROWELL or inverted trof well to the west of the modeled precip. shield. It's not like it's completely unprecedented, but very unlikely in this situation. There are just limited lifting mechanisms to generate precip. west of eastern LI. Scattered flurries are probably all most will get outside E LI, or SECT.

[weathermedic]

Seems like the snow shower/flurries over parts of the city keeps on back building over the same area.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Snowing gd rn over the bx,expanding right over nyc. The bx has recorded snow accumulation for the year while cpk hasn't had a trace yet

 

[tmagan]

1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Snowing gd rn over the bx,expanding right over nyc. The bx has recorded snow accumulation for the year while cpk hasn't had a trace yet

 

Central Park did have a trace today.

[tdp146]

Snow shower again. Is this sound effect? 

[STORMANLI]

Dusting

[lee59]

Light snow here, car tops getting dusted.

[CIK62]

Running "Out of the Money".      Much warmer again at tail end.         My horse finished first in the Fifth---but he was entered in the Fourth.     PNA crash does it again:

[psv88]

Holy snow squall. Definitely sound effect snow right now. Echoes popping over the island. Nice dusting now. 

[lee59]

Seems snow showers increasing just inland from Maine to south Jersey. Maybe the moisture from off shore front and storm hitting the cold air. Would be nice to see it fill in over night and have a light snow fall even in Central Park. Just a thought, probably won't happen but this time yesterday I would have said snow showers today wouldn't happen.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, eduggs said:

I suppose it's possible  I'm in favor of anything that brings us snow.

Raindrops and snowflakes need nuclei - usually dust particles - to crystallize around and transfer vapor into the solid phase. I believe salt particularly near coastal regions, e.g., LI, coastal SNE, are very efficient at facilitating crystallization. My guess is this would promote flurries vs. drizzle but it's possible it could allow precipitation to form below the normal crystallization zone. 

It makes me wonder if this is how it sometimes snows (or drizzles) when you don't see anything on radar.  Low level "under the radar"-- you often see this when it's very cold and you see these beautiful sparkly tiny snow crystals drifting down-- this happened a lot in February 2015.

Another thing which could help precipitate is meteoric dust, which makes me wonder if precipitation is more likely just after meteor showers occur?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A short video from this morning.

 

I love seeing the snow and the swans!

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

My bad stemwinder. Nice catch.

Yeah do not remember the last one other than 2000. You would think there would be more with ridging in the Atlantic.

it also makes me think we should see stemwinding tropical systems too

[TugHillMatt]

Congrats on your "overperforming 'event'" NYC/Long Island crew!

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, USCG RS said:

The saving grace to this winter is heating oil. In October/November the Energy and Emergency Management community were preparing for the worst, including an inability of the average person to afford it while also being concerned about the need for rolling electric blackouts due to a lack of supply. 

Thankfully, the rather mild winter has negated this threat for the most part. 

Yeah.. I don't think Central Suffolk and east should sleep on this 

I would argue in some ways yes and here's why: our area, LI especially, is directly abutting the water. All snow for us is essentially thread the needle, even in a great pattern (of course there are always exceptions). The WAR forces warm air towards the island without much to subdue it. Ie, southerly winds or pushing an LP too close to LI/SE CT/NYC is a recipe for disaster because of our proximity to the water.

There is, of course, a flip side to this. The WAR causes a plethora of baroclynicity and this can really benefit the area when the gradient is in the right location. 

Humans are still more intuitive than machines when they listen to themselves. For now, anyway 

Ya know... The USSR used to seed and play with salt for wx purposes... 

Yep, all complex animals have intuition, it's amazing really.

I even read that trees in the Amazon control their own weather-- it's fascinating!  Science papers were written on how they control nucleation.....

About non thread the needle HECS snowstorms, I've always wondered how they happen.... like February 1978, February 1983, January 1996, PD 2 February 2003, January 2016 are the only ones I can think of offhand.....the other ones were thread the needle for the most part (even Boxing Day).

 

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Seems snow showers increasing just inland from Maine to south Jersey. Maybe the moisture from off shore front and storm hitting the cold air. Would be nice to see it fill in over night and have a light snow fall even in Central Park. Just a thought, probably won't happen but this time yesterday I would have said snow showers today wouldn't happen.

the wind is sure blowing now....there was no snow in the afternoon and we just got a coating (T).

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Light snow here, car tops getting dusted.

Nothing here since about noon, what does the radar look like for sw nassau?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Of course it will be. 

You think youre going into May +5-10 for the year??

 

Given that this gets made up in Mar/Apr timeframe

There's a chance for a 2002 like pattern which I would love.

 

[lee59]

Hard to say where it will snow shower. They seem to form, diminish and then form again. 

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nothing here since about noon, what does the radar look like for sw nassau?

 

Not doing much here now but just had enough in the past hour to whiten the cars again.

[Sampson]

Snow sticking on cold surfaces. Nice little burst over the last 15 minutes 

[Nibor]

Snowing in Astoria 

[Snowlover11]

this wind can kindly fudge off.

[snowman19]

The GEFS just got even uglier (if that’s possible) by 2/1. It has a flat Aleutian ridge and a -PNA trough digging down into Baja. If that’s correct it’s a lights out look, even without the SE ridge. As depicted, that would completely flood Canada and the CONUS with Pacific Maritime air, arctic completely cutoff. The PAC is a total cluster you know what on that run

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The GEFS just got even uglier (if that’s possible) by 2/1. It has a flat Aleutian ridge and a -PNA trough digging down into Baja. If that’s correct it’s a lights out look, even without the SE ridge. As depicted, that would completely flood Canada and the CONUS with Pacific Maritime air, arctic completely cutoff. The PAC is a total cluster you know what on that run

It would be interesting if we could challenge records from 1972-73 and 2001-02 for snowfall and warmth.

I'm kind of disappointed we had that meaningless dry cold in December now.  It probably means we can't beat any mild winter records but snowfall records are definitely in play on the low end lol.

Are you confident about an el nino for next winter?  Wouldn't it be more interesting if we somehow pulled off another la nina-- a 4 year la nina is unprecedented in modern times.  Or we could have a neutral which would be another bad winter most likely?

01-02 was a neutral after a three year la nina and we saw how that turned out lol.

I wonder if it's ever happened that we went right from a three year la nina into an el nino or if going to neutral first is more common?

 

[snowman19]

It would be interesting if we could challenge records from 1972-73 and 2001-02 for snowfall and warmth.
I'm kind of disappointed we had that meaningless dry cold in December now.  It probably means we can't beat any mild winter records but snowfall records are definitely in play on the low end lol.
Are you confident about an el nino for next winter?  Wouldn't it be more interesting if we somehow pulled off another la nina-- a 4 year la nina is unprecedented in modern times.  Or we could have a neutral which would be another bad winter most likely?
01-02 was a neutral after a three year la nina and we saw how that turned out lol.
I wonder if it's ever happened that we went right from a three year la nina into an el nino or if going to neutral first is more common?
 

It’s already not as bad as 01-02 because it actually got cold the last week of December, even though it only lasted 4 days. That winter never got cold. As far as not getting snow, yea it’s comparable to 01-02 so far, but that winter was dry, this one wants to rain and produce thunderstorms in the middle of January

[wdrag]

Some notes here:  It looks to me like the big weekend of storm oft predicted by long rangers more than a week in advance (via upper air pattern) is going to happen for parts of coastal New England. Moral victory.  My guess is a few power outages are ahead for the wind whipped wet snow laden branches-wires in southeast Massachusetts and I haven't studied what might happen in Maine. This is a big storm, just a little far offshore. I can see eastern LI getting involved in some snow-sleet-freezing rain late today or Monday morning.  GEFS is finally at 24 hours coming on board.  FGEN will drive some of the snow-sleet west from the MA coast later today-tonight. Bottom line, an event for the Boston area to the Cape Cod Canal. 

Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor-Old Forge NY: Continues to look like a significant light to moderate winter storm for me. For now a messy mix of ice and snow. Many models suggest mainly ice. Ice amounts on untreated surfaces in the hilly terrain of CT and Massachusetts as well as Old Forge NY may be 1 to 2 tenths of an inch. Potential for a period of slippery travel, especially Old Forge NY and high terrain of the I-84 corridor. A manageable travel event, if you plan on a little extra time.  Leading the pack for many days (IF THIS OCCURS as wintry mix for more than 6 hours) is the Canadian and all it's modeling. No guarantee this occurs as 1/4-2" of snow and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice for I84 northward but other modeling at least favors I84 itself northward.  For those south of I84, you see it as nada and I can live with that southeast of Newton NJ in Sussex County NJ. 

As far as more seasonably cold wintry temps: I am expecting that chillier air (colder than what we're experiencing now) will arrive here after the storm of the 23rd-24th and generally linger til about the end of the month before the first week or two of February reverts back to above or much above normal temps.   I'll check back tomorrow. Have a decent Sunday and go big blue.