January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still liking that post-1/25 pattern into early February....skunked or not skunked to date, it's hard to say it looks like crap. Maybe it will trend worse, but there's going to be chances there and there's an awful lot of arctic cold around too which has been absent for over a month.

Yeah first time this winter where I felt like the opportunity window is real.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah first time this winter where I felt like the opportunity window is real.

If we can grab one major regional event before things break down again in February, I think we will be primed to run at normal in March.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Love how we can’t trust an 11 day prog out in time with regard to the the pattern.

But we know a 3-4 week prog showing a SE Ridge is correct?  

It makes sense from an enso and seasonal tenure standpoint but this nina has behaved erratically so I would agree to not concern ourselves with LR weeklies that are low scoring to begin with. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we can grab one major regional event before things break down again in February, I think we will be primed to run at normal n March.

I hope. Not sure how I feel about March at the moment.

[tamarack]

Still wondering if we ever get deep winter cold.  Least coldest winter temp here was -10 in 2005-06 and 19 of 24 winters has gotten down to at least -20.  2001-02 had its coldest max at 16, 2nd least cold is 12 in 2005-06. 
So far, our low here is -3 (may challenge that Sunday morning) and coldest max 20.

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we can grab one major regional event before things break down again in February, I think we will be primed to run at normal in March.

Hopefully some of us will be going into that cold, active run with the foot and a half on the ground already

[mahk_webstah]

Great for some;disappointing for others. Unsure which group I’ll fall into.

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 
200 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 27 2023 

...Heavy snow threat for the interior Northeast with an exiting 
storm Monday... 
...Second storm to spread a heavy rain/severe weather threat to 
the South early next week, working up the Eastern Seaboard midweek 
along with a heavy snow threat from the central Rockies/Plains 
through the interior Northeast... 


...Synoptic Overview... 

The weather pattern will remain stormy but progressive across much 
of the nation going into next week with two well defined low 
pressure systems of interest. The first will be affecting the 
Northeast U.S. going through Monday and then exiting into 
southeast Canada by Tuesday, with coastal rain and interior snow. 
Meanwhile, the next closed/deep system will dig robustly over the 
Southwest into Monday then eject across the south-central U.S. 
early in next week, with a subsequent track in a general 
northeasterly direction across the Ohio Valley and then the Great 
Lakes by Wednesday and into Thursday. A building West 
Coast/western Canada upper ridge as a +PNA pattern will then 
herald a return to colder conditions from the West to across much 
of the central and eastern U.S. as amplified upper troughing works 
develops downstream. 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS still pretty solid for midweek next week

[EastonSN+]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS still pretty solid for midweek next week

Not feeling too confident on the south coast:( 

[brooklynwx99]

I'm pretty confident that you guys will see legit events through the first week of February. these means are impressive 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not feeling too confident on the south coast:( 

Its an interior event . As will said , “don’t do it “ and as the WPC said “interior New England for both “ Maybe after that toward end of Jan / early Feb for others 

[CoastalWx]

Regarding the PNA in the 11-15 day. The one thing I am NOT seeing, is this thing digging to the Baja for now. It wants to sort of go positively tilted and kick out off the west coast. That with the PV to our north kind of helps prevent a robust SE ridge. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Now perhaps after that date it could get ugly, but that pattern would work. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

BOX going 4-7” here Monday.  That is optimistically ambitious.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Now perhaps after that date it could get ugly, but that pattern would work. 

So now we just wait to make sure the seasonal trend of burying the west coast trough as We get toward day 7-8 doesn’t occur which it May very well not . 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX going 4-7” here Monday.  That is optimistically ambitious.  

I would guess elevation will help with the relatively poor airmass but I bet southerly flow doesn’t hurt you as much as central and eastern areas regarding your BL 

[MaineJayhawk]

42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS still pretty solid for midweek next week

Cranmore jack

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So now we just wait to make sure the seasonal trend of burying the west coast trough as We get toward day 7-8 doesn’t occur which it May very well not . 

This look is different because eastern Canada is cold and not torched like the previous -PNAs. Also, those were modeled to dig, while at least as of now...this doesn't dig as deeply and it serviceable.  

Caveats apply, but it would work.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm pretty confident that you guys will see legit events through the first week of February. these means are impressive 

 

For CNE and NNE yes they should be excited however most of that is from the next two storms and about 3-6" from today, then I'm sure they will clean up with some upslope and clippers.. Monday's storm looks like CNE - Wednesday NNE.. 

For SNE most of that is a front end dump south and some from today and some from next Wednesday in Mass, next Wednesday also as of now most likely may not be much more than an inch or so then rain unless we really trend this east.. From my area down to you we are really in trouble, may have to wait until post 2/1 as there is not much cold except directly after Wednesday's storm and that promises to be a quick cold and dry shot. 

It's not too cold at all surprisingly behind the Wednesday storm.. Heres the 5 day anomaly behind the storm.. Seems to wait til days 11-15 to get some real cold in here and we know all about that this year.  Also the 7 day snow after Wednesday, not much.. 

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now perhaps after that date it could get ugly, but that pattern would work. 

what do you think about the mini torch on eps Jan 27-31? If it's ugly after that leaves us with a 3-4 day window lol 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

what do you think about the mini torch on eps Jan 27-31? If it's ugly after that leaves us with a 3-4 day window lol 

That looks like an overrunning thing like the op showed. In reality it's probably more of a boundary that separates cold air and warm air very close by. Might be oranges at H5, but srfc temps would be colder. Now where is that boundary? Your guess is a good as mine.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That looks like an overrunning thing like the op showed. In reality it's probably more of a boundary that separates cold air and warm air very close by. Might be oranges at H5, but srfc temps would be colder. Now where is that boundary? Your guess is a good as mine.

For now looks warm at surface let’s see where it sets up.. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That looks like an overrunning thing like the op showed. In reality it's probably more of a boundary that separates cold air and warm air very close by. Might be oranges at H5, but srfc temps would be colder. Now where is that boundary? Your guess is a good as mine.

I think that timeframe poses a legit overrunning threat with the TPV displaced like that and southern stream waves running underneath

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m not confident on anything more than scraps over the next 10-14 days in SNE 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

For now looks warm at surface let’s see where it sets up.. 

that's a 10 day mean though... it wouldn't be able to pick up the transient arctic cold that a TPV displacement would bring

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not confident on anything more than scraps over the next 10-14 days in SNE 

Of course you’re not. 

[brooklynwx99]

idk, the ensemble means look as good for snowfall as they have all winter, pretty much

this is quite impressive at this range. shows that modeling is beginning to pick up on events with a decent amount of agreement

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's a 10 day mean though... it wouldn't be able to pick up the transient arctic cold that a TPV displacement would bring

Looks like that comes in just after this map. I hope you are right. I don’t like seeing a mean that warm Jan 27-31. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk, the ensemble means look as good for snowfall as they have all winter, pretty much

this is quite impressive at this range. shows that modeling is beginning to pick up on events with a decent amount of agreement

It does look good for that stretch this year lol just not as good as the 15 day that is skewed by two events that will probably be rain 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This look is different because eastern Canada is cold and not torched like the previous -PNAs. Also, those were modeled to dig, while at least as of now...this doesn't dig as deeply and it serviceable.  

Caveats apply, but it would work.

Early Feb 2017 pattern.