nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Tracking shorts or sweats for New Years Eve? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Tracking shorts or sweats for New Years Eve? The earlier the thaw, the earlier the reload! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I am interested in a Thursday/Friday thread for the Polar Plunge of disappointments. We have wind, severe, squalls, and quick drop temp discussions around it. Not as fun as a snowstorm but significant! Is that a good idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: It'll be interesting to see the upslope potential after this storm passes by in the mountains. Probably only excited about upslope because I'm headed to Wisp from the 23rd to the 26th haha It’s far out to parse these type of details but using the 12z GFS OP as an example, that’s a lot of energy rounding a very robust 500 energy through the mountains, coupled with ripping winds out of the NW, and unfrozen lakes…this is a pretty sweet upslope setup. Caveats that this is based on what one day 5/6 OP run is showing. But the potential for upslope is there. We’re getting upslope snow showers here today in a non-perfect setup (e.g. there’s little energy / winds to enhance it, unlike that setup) but its been snowing since last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Not a bad look for a possible modest event during this window. As advertised, the pattern is in transition at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not a bad look for a possible modest event during this window. As advertised, the pattern is in transition at this point. Did the pattern ever get established in the first place? Lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I am interested in a Thursday/Friday thread for the Polar Plunge of disappointments. We have wind, severe, squalls, and quick drop temp discussions around it. Not as fun as a snowstorm but significant! Is that a good idea? no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did the pattern ever get established in the first place? Lol Well, not yet lol. But it is decent right now, and will get 'better'. That doesn't always mean we get snow ofc, just because we want it. Just as the guidance has kicked the can to get to the more favorable look, it could also be doing the same in breaking it down too quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 NPJ gets too extended which brings warmer period and pacific puke, however maybe the 27th threat could work out before we switch to a warmer period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 50 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not a bad look for a possible modest event during this window. As advertised, the pattern is in transition at this point. Who needs a white Christmas, when on Christmas Day, you can actually be tracking a modest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I support this thread 100%. Good vibes....good vibes. MECS on MECS in Jan and again in Feb. It's going to happen. Big ticket snows. LFG!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, George BM said: The earlier the thaw, the earlier the reload! I like your style and enthusiasm. You can dance at my daughter's wedding. Let's do this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Hope the eps is wrong. By New Years Eve all of the US is well above normal 850s. It's pretty disgusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hope the eps is wrong. By New Years Eve all of the US is well above normal 850s. It's pretty disgusting. Just a few days ago the EPO was forecasted to be around neutral to slightly positive but now it's forecasted to go strongly positive. Tough to get any arctic air in the U.S. despite the other indices being favorable. Good news is that it look short lived as EPO should head down after right the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well, this all worked out well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hope the eps is wrong. By New Years Eve all of the US is well above normal 850s. It's pretty disgusting. Chances are with that limited period of the AK vortex we would not flood the country and torch that fast with a mean trof in the east...all 3 ensembles continue insisting that the relaxation is brief and the vortex backs up into the Aleutians D14-16 and we begin going cold again. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Anyone have the MJO trends for this time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, DE2PA said: Anyone have the MJO trends for this time period? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 So I wanted to share a couple thoughts. I grew up in this area and have lived here up until 2010, and it’s really not common to get sig snows in December… even at all. December is not a snowy month here. We’re normally lucky to even get a couple of inches. I feel that the 6”+ers we got here since 2002 and the 2009 HECS had us spoiled and raised our expectations for snow in Decembers. Even I get caught up in the model drama sometimes, but not getting much, if any, snow in December is the norm as far as I can remember… and that has always been the case here. Onto January! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, MDstorm said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Thanks. Looks like we’re just floating around neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z took away the little bit of Front end snow from the front runner. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: 18z took away the little bit of Front end snow from the front runner. Damn. Snow into Louisiana though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 18z took away the little bit of Front end snow from the front runner. Damn. But gives us a nice little backend burst, for whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, StormyClearweather said: But gives us a nice little backend burst, for whatever that's worth. I’ll take scraps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Snow into Louisiana though. Lol. I was just going to post atleast Louisiana gets snow. What a disappointing day of runs. What makes it worse is it doesn't look like much behind it either. Maybe a 3 or 4 day window before it warms up towards New years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 This would actually produce vs model imagination of a front passage or miller b. Dynamic, arctic front would produce some scraps for us. That upslope, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: This would actually produce vs model imagination of a front passage or miller b. Dynamic, arctic front would produce some scraps for us. That upslope, too Are ideal situation right now is primary spawns secondary and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The GFS isn't really even a big storm for anyone anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 A few more scraps on Christmas Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: A few more scraps on Christmas Day Flizzard watch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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