"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

So many more and hybrids. We take them all day any day with phased massive height falls.

For sure Steve.  Hoping this can deliver the goods for SNE. 

[wxsniss]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t sweat op runs but it’s this:

 

Both 18z and 0z GFS had this feature, hence the more disjointed cyclogenesis

12z GFS did not, and cyclogenesis was entirely focused at the monster digging shortwave

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Both 18z and 0z GFS had this feature, hence the more disjointed cyclogenesis

12z GFS did not, and cyclogenesis was entirely focused at the monster digging shortwave

That little leading shortwave could act like a 50/50 and prevent a CMC inland track 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Both 18z and 0z GFS had this feature, hence the more disjointed cyclogenesis

12z GFS did not, and cyclogenesis was entirely focused at the monster digging shortwave

But as Tip said, it’s a 963mb storm on that run…can’t be too disjointed if it’s ending up at that strength.  

The ensembles(GEFS) look nice…that’s where we focus at this stage. 

[George001]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t sweat op runs but it’s this:

 

That’s a lot of energy, I’d even keep an eye on the piece way off to the right (on this run it’s too far east, but plenty of time for that to change). If as the trough goes negative it is able to pull that back into the main storm, we could see one big low instead of 2 or 3 lows. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But as Tip said, it’s a 963mb storm on that run…can’t be too disjointed if it’s ending up at that strength.  

The ensembles(GEFS) look nice…that’s where we focus at this stage. 

Ensembles were toned down somewhat.

[weathafella]

Euro/CMC/uncle op runs run this baby west of most of New England.  It's far out still but GFS op is kind of on its own with the system in the 0z/16 suite.  CMC ensembles (GEPS) kind of match the op.  Not sure i'll stay up for all of the EPS but maybe....

[George001]

The euro looks like the 0z euro last night, sucks. Hopefully there aren’t too many inland runners on the EPS as well.

[weathafella]

EPS looks better than the op.  Still spread though so we'll see.  The mean suggests somewhat of a hugger with 925 mean temps problematic east of 95.  But way better vs op.  A lot of time left for this strong signal but across all ensembles there's excellent consensus that we're getting a sizable event.

[George001]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS looks better than the op.  Still spread though so we'll see.  The mean suggests somewhat of a hugger with 925 mean temps problematic east of 95.  But way better vs op.  A lot of time left for this strong signal but across all ensembles there's excellent consensus that we're getting a sizable event.

Alright we can work with that, I figured the EPS would be terrible considering how inland the Euro was. It looks like the risk is more inland runner than OTS, but the setup still looks better than the one for the rainstorm going on right now in eastern areas. Just gotta get that low east of us. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Firing up the Corsica again , anywhere from West Virginia to New England for this special holiday chase edition 

 

[Henry's Weather]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

EPS looks better than the op.  Still spread though so we'll see.  The mean suggests somewhat of a hugger with 925 mean temps problematic east of 95.  But way better vs op.  A lot of time left for this strong signal but across all ensembles there's excellent consensus that we're getting a sizable event.

Yep, telleconnecter convergence is no joke

[Jebman]

You guys up there are going to get absolutely ANNIHILATED by immense amounts of snow!

[Torch Tiger]

Still looking huggy/cuttery this AM.

[Henry's Weather]

Let's make sure we stress over run-to-run fluctuations for a storm occurring 8 days from now. If we don't do that, we'll never earn snow from the universe! Because we all know that in order to enjoy life, you have to suffer gratuitously on the front end through anticipatory anxiety over uncontrollable shit before anything good happens. And, of course, because the universe cares about how we feel about things.

[JC-CT]

16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Let's make sure we stress over run-to-run fluctuations for a storm occurring 8 days from now. If we don't do that, we'll never earn snow from the universe! Because we all know that in order to enjoy life, you have to suffer gratuitously on the front end through anticipatory anxiety over uncontrollable shit before anything good happens. And, of course, because the universe cares about how we feel about things.

Did you even check the calendar before posting this? Of course the universe cares.

 

[CoastalWx]

Well huggers certainly a risk if there is no confluence. 

[SnoSki14]

GFS went east this morning. Euro is over amplifying as usual. I think we're in a good spot 

[CarverWX]

I really hope the GFS has the right idea with that lead wave and keeping the 2nd low further east.

[Snowcrazed71]

37 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Still looking huggy/cuttery this AM.

Looking at all 3 most recent runs ( GFS, Euro, GEM )... Not sure what you mean about cuttery? All show the storm of the coast ( yes... Closer into the coast on 2 and a little further out on another ). 

Still a great look and signal for next week.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CarverWX said:

I really hope the GFS has the right idea with that lead wave and keeping the 2nd low further east.

Gfs had todays event as a shredded mess of you recall. We’ll see. It’s certainly a hug risk.

[CarverWX]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS went east this morning. Euro is over amplifying as usual. I think we're in a good spot 

The GFS has been east sense 12Z 12/15.

[CarverWX]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs had todays event as a shredded mess of you recall. We’ll see. It’s certainly a hug risk.

Agree. This thing is still so far out I feel anything is on the table.

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS has a bunch of members into NY state 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs had todays event as a shredded mess of you recall. We’ll see. It’s certainly a hug risk.

Isn’t every event every a hug risk?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6z gfs is a pretty funny way to basically miss this event entirely 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn’t every event every a hug risk?

Some pattern more than others. I’d say this one is a higher risk. Note risk does not mean it will happen.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Some pattern more than others. I’d say this one is a higher risk. Note risk does not mean it will happen.

I’m kind of confused by this, doesn’t the block kind of prevent this, so why is the risk higher?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m kind of confused by this, doesn’t the block kind of prevent this, so why is the risk higher?

We lose the good confluence (50/50 low). However the block over Davis Straits is why it doesn’t go over BUF.

[CoastalWx]

But the gfs digs it so far SE it’s wide right. So you hope for something like that on other guidance. Not that extreme though obviously.