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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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Oz models across the board made significant improvements for the Dec 22-23 system. Still have a ways to go....too long if you ask me, but we have a unanimous signal for a potential storm across all guidance now...thats what we should be focused on at this point. Sharing these from another sub...thanks @Weather Will

 

D74E534F-5B8F-4DB6-BD42-A48C3D1A614E.png.418b6646ff5dc30bcd19dfdc0d84a467.png

BFDC1E55-0E73-4DC4-A8C0-04BAD8BFE25A.png.cc1ba62f25aaece58f3bc4ad0680a6a0.png

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1 hour ago, anthonyweather said:

18b01b332b750d0cbf051d8dc1914cdd.jpg
I’ll ride the hrrr/gfs for this storm fellas emoji102.pngemoji1787.png


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Its hard to ignore this pretty accurate short range model. Notice that  South Mtn plays the important demarcation line of who actually gets the snow. While the snow amounts appear high, it has the right idea with my   thoughts about the dynamic cooling idea and the physical geography. If this indeed unfolds, many amateur mets will call this event an "overperformer"  I call it normal.  A WSW should be issued for the LV north if the next three hourly runs hold up to this same scenario.

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oz models across the board made significant improvements for the Dec 22-23 system. Still have a ways to go....too long if you ask me, but we have a unanimous signal for a potential storm across all guidance now...thats what we should be focused on at this point. Sharing these from another sub...thanks @Weather Will

 

D74E534F-5B8F-4DB6-BD42-A48C3D1A614E.png.418b6646ff5dc30bcd19dfdc0d84a467.png

BFDC1E55-0E73-4DC4-A8C0-04BAD8BFE25A.png.cc1ba62f25aaece58f3bc4ad0680a6a0.png

Well said at this point I would just Ride the ensembles till at least maybe 12 Z on    Sunday

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I pretty much ignore all OP runs until 5 days out, that's around the time frame they start showing run to run consistency, over that I take a look at the 500 MB charts on the ensembles and the 06Z GEFS 500 MB is HONKING for a potential SECS. Much better ridge placement out west from yesterday as well.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

 

00z EPS looks good too but I think we'd want that ridge slight further E like the GEFS. Regardless, that pattern is one we can score a big dog with.

 

eps_z500a_namer_34.png

 

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42 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I pretty much ignore all OP runs until 5 days out, that's around the time frame they start showing run to run consistency, over that I take a look at the 500 MB charts on the ensembles and the 06Z GEFS 500 MB is HONKING for a potential SECS. Much better ridge placement out west from yesterday as well.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

 

00z EPS looks good too but I think we'd want that ridge slight further E like the GEFS. Regardless, that pattern is one we can score a big dog with.

 

eps_z500a_namer_34.png

 

6z eps pna ridge improved leading in fwiw.

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