Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dano62
    Newest Member
    Dano62
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
 Share

Recommended Posts

I could see Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton counties starting as sleet, then as the column moistens and cools briefly thumping 1-2" of snow. Then as the mid-levels warm we'll switch to sleet and freezing rain before turning to rain. Carbon and Monroe counties will stay snow longer and those further south in Montgomery, Bucks, etc. will likely start as sleet and then go straight to rain. One thing to take note of is if the CAD can hold on longer and prevail. I don't think we're far enough out anymore for major changes. But for areas like the Lehigh Valley, an extra hour or two of sleet/freezing rain is possible than expected if it stays colder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^I find these kuchera maps not quite as accurate and often deceptive. Ive been using the positive snow depth change maps and they are generally pretty spot-op in comparison. Especially when mixing is involved like the Thursday event. Keeps expectations more realistic as well.

Kuch is showing 6:1-8:1 for this, the 10:1 maps are much higher


.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM for now has the low actually almost going right up the GS Parkway. If verification is a move 25 miles east - I would tug that thump of early accumulating snow down a bit into Chester County.....now if it is 25 miles further inland....really quick turn to rain. Either way rain should wash any accumulations away as far North as Tamaqua

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

NAM at range but looks like it's coming in warm to my untrained eyes. I'll take my 15 minutes of IP and declare victory.

I expect a couple pings maybe mixed in w/a flake or two then cold rain but I was never excited about this event. 12/20 and going forward seems like legitimate chances. Temps are slowly trending downward...

Bright sunshine/clear skies/34F at 11:35am...that's decent cold for this time of year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

Gotta love being literally right on the rain/snow line for this. Any 20 mile shift in either direction will change things a ton. Gonna be a really tough forecast for my page…

its all on the soundings. A cooling profile wherever  it sets up will bring down those accumulating fatties in a hurry. Usually south mountain is the demarcation line in these events. Good thing, the ground is cold this time so it should start accumulating real quick. I have seen  over a dozen times. Padot will be brining tomorrow afternoon

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...