Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,277
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    weatherman27
    Newest Member
    weatherman27
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
 Share

Recommended Posts

I may not have the best reading comprehension, but my understanding since late Nov has been that the first half of December would be a nothing burger, we’d have to wait until the 15th or so for a better pattern to emerge, then post 20th/around the holiday season before we could hope to track.

Seems everything (so far) is moving along as expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

That’s the one to watch, if 500 mb sets up like this(from 6z gefs), we will see snow from it even if coastal plain flips over for a time. That’s almost as textbook as it gets for big snow in these parts.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_48.png

All the pro mets are on this one and have been for a few days so it must be right. No more can kicking or fake threats....LFG!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not loving the setup for the late week system. Antecedent stale airmass, long SE fetch out ahead, mid levels toasty. Certainly looks more wet than white for the lowlands and I95. Maybe we can squeeze out some wet flakes or mix for a bit.

Very much interested in the pattern evolution as we head into the week leading up to Christmas (and possibly farther out as well). EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+....this would be one heck of a global model(s) fail if they all had the tellies wrong. But even if 1 is off, the pattern is loaded. Core of cross polar flow starts out in the western US then slowly bleeds east which is actually preferred vs a direct polar blast that overwhelms the flow and forces suppression. Split flow off the W Coast, active STJ, jet max under us. 

Buckle up....our patience may pay off soon. Going to start seeing discrete events showing up on guidance. Dec 22-26 is showing up as one such period that bears  watching. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not loving the setup for the late week system. Antecedent stale airmass, long SE fetch out ahead, mid levels toasty. Certainly looks more wet than white for the lowlands and I95. Maybe we can squeeze out some wet flakes or mix for a bit.

Very much interested in the pattern evolution as we head into the week leading up to Christmas (and possibly farther out as well). EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+....this would be one heck of a global model(s) fail if they all had the tellies wrong. But even if 1 is off, the pattern is loaded. Core of cross polar flow starts out in the western US then slowly bleeds east which is actually preferred vs a direct polar blast that overwhelms the flow and forces suppression. Split flow off the W Coast, active STJ, jet max under us. 

Buckle up....our patience may pay off soon. Going to start seeing discrete events showing up on guidance. Dec 22-26 is showing up as one such period that bears  watching. 

It's super exciting that we should be entering a loaded pattern with our first storm threat centered right around Christmas. I'm rooting for a Dec 24-25 snowstorm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What could have been a decent ice breaker (no pun intended) for SE PA late week has morphed into a cold mostly rain event here aside from some brief frozen at the onset. Far interior and elevated areas will see more wet snow and mixing. Remember when the primary was progged to quickly weaken and transfer to the coast? What a difference a day makes wrt the primary low:

gfs-ens_mslpa_eus_19.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What could have been a decent ice breaker (no pun intended) for SE PA late week has morphed into a cold mostly rain event here aside from some brief frozen at the onset. Far interior and elevated areas will see more wet snow and mixing. Remember when the primary was progged to quickly weaken and transfer to the coast? What a difference a day makes wrt the primary low:

gfs-ens_mslpa_eus_19.png

This was looking good for us along the coast.  Why is the primary not weakening as it heads into the block ?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was looking good for us along the coast.  Why is the primary not weakening as it heads into the block ?

It is weakening, but you know how this works by now...the primary almost never dies as quickly as models suggest especially in the extended range. They almost always hang on for dear life and muck up the forecast in the big cities and lowlands. Also a function of the new low not developing as fast. Combo of the two.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was looking good for us along the coast.  Why is the primary not weakening as it heads into the block ?

A few days ago the ens had better HL ridging spread all along the Southern Canada/US border. This was when we were seeing better redevelopment and quicker transfer:

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_29.thumb.png.7e738513a5a5ade21ba503f86b3b72c5.png

Fast forward to now and you see that ridging pulled N and is more consolidated as a 'block' near Baffin. That isnt a horrible look but it allows for the primary to stay in tact longer. Sure it may help the new low tick S and E, but the mid levels are torched for the lowlands and it would take a bomb to recover the mids quickly enough:

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_18.thumb.png.015d0c100c50383407b2b0e1d9edac1e.png

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...