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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Going with a gut feeling here the GFS shred factory wins

I would agree.  GFS and CMC look sooo different.  It will be interesting to see what Dr. No says.  My gut tells me follow the GFS though.  In all honesty though I will not give it up until Tuesday or so. Guess this is better than Sunny and 55 or Cloudy Drizzle and 52 at Midnight!

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6z gfs is a slight improvement....stopped the bleeding.

A 3 major models show the fine line we are walking between too little spacing and a slider that cannot amplify with no mechanism to turn the corner, decent spacing with no ridge out west so farther n and a hair late to turn the corner, and near perfect tining where the sustem geys captured and pulled up the coast and stalling under the nao. Not much breathing room tbh between the system escaping S and E with a light event here or getting captured and a stalled bomb. Tbh, middle of the road seems like a good bet at this point and ens means support this. CMC like solution makes the most sense given the evolving pattern....a little something for all of us, some mixing near 95. Not a forecast....just middle of the pack which generally is a good rule of thumb with these variable progs attm. Fits mid Dec climo pretty good as well.

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Time to dust off the H5 vorticity maps. You can see among the big 3 the major differences. The euro and cmc which are hits have a ridge amplify in the PNA which as noted yesterday is one of the keys to making this whole thing work. Allows for a more consolidated look downtream and energy digs and phases into one closed ull. The GFS on the other hand looks confused as to which sw to focus on since the flow upstream remains flat. If you loop the gfs it has a really more chaotic look than other guidance with different votices moving every direction and a general flat flow. Going to be a long week of tracking with such a convoluted pattern and anyone that tells you today they have it figured out is simply wishcasting.

ecmwf_z500_vort_us_52.png

gem_z500_vort_us_28.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Euro is an inland barn crusher further south than 12z. 

So, Dr. No did not follow the GFS.  So, you are saying we have a chance! Clearly the PNA out west will tell us how this evolves and comes up the coast next weekend and the NAO holds the key to blocking and where the rain snow line goes. Us in the coastal plain should be a bit concerned of the warm Atlantic and Delaware Bay head waters which are solidly in the middle and upper 50's still. Gotta have the NE or NNE wind vector along the I-95 corridor to Chester, Bucks, and Motgomery county to lock in the colder air.  Hopefully we do not see that annoying warm tongue come in and switch many over to sleet and I am expecting it.  I guess for now just keep on keeping on and let's get the storm here.

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Ralph, not just wishcasting but historical weather patterns playing an emerging and  major part for my reason in why I said lock it in for 6+ in for the LV . While the 12' + amounts are suspiciously too high in the clown maps for the LV, the weather pattern and projected snow amounts for this potential event is warily similar to the the 2010 boxing day storm in which the LV received over 6 in of snow.   This synoptic weather pattern this week  resembles this same pattern before the 2010 boxing day storm snow event as stated from Wikipedia   "The storm was difficult to predict due to disagreements between models; it wasn't until about two days prior when the most models anticipated a major snowstorm. The National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and many other private forecasters were skeptical of the storm impacting the Northeastern states until about 24 hours of the storm's arrival as well; although, some models depicted the storm delivering a full-blown blizzard to the New York City metropolitan area as early as a week in advance. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center even issued a statement on Christmas Eve, 48 hours prior to the storm, that they suspected the American models of having model initialization errors; thus, they believed these errors may have forced the storm to be erroneously modeled to come up the Northeastern coast."

The real issue IMHO is that storm event was also in  December and was in a relaxing  La Nina year weather pattern scenario.  Models are models but they should always be  used as tools to guide our predictions, not to base potential snowfall accumulation ten days out. When I see a weather pattern emerging, I examine historical storm analogies that resemble what the computer models are spitting out. Even though its not perfect way to predict I especially like to use it in fading La Nina years because these years tend to spit out weird  storm scenarios, especially when short duration blocking is occurring in the Atlantic. You are right by holding out for another 3-5 days before jumping on the band wagon for a potential KU storm event. The best model to use is the NAM in this situation. 

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Nice December day today with slightly below normal temps. Chance for some light snow developing toward daybreak on Sunday changing to rain during the morning and ending mixed with snow again during the evening. Dry and chilly during the mid-week before snow chances increase with some potential for a significant storm starting on Wednesday night into Thursday. Details of course TBD but something to watch and we will during the week.
The record high for today is 70 degrees set in 1946. The record low is 1 degree above zero set today in 1910. Our daily rain record is the 1.90" from 1952. Daily snow record is the 5.9" that fell in 1904.
image.png.fff314201ada55a3594e7d63df741c7d.png
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2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Ralph, not just wishcasting but historical weather patterns playing an emerging and  major part for my reason in why I said lock it in for 6+ in for the LV . While the 12' + amounts are suspiciously too high in the clown maps for the LV, the weather pattern and projected snow amounts for this potential event is warily similar to the the 2010 boxing day storm in which the LV received over 6 in of snow.   

Not sure why you mention me re: wishcasting. Guilty conscience?

Also, historic analogs arent super reliable esp given the ever changing climate. Hard to broadbrush, just my opine.

Lastly, this is the 3rd or 4th time youve called for a 4"+ storm up your way a week or more out. How's that working out? Asking legit, I dont follow snowfall to date where you're located.

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NO guilty conscience here- just stating historical analog facts. we will see. By the way I have only called for snow once in the last 30 days and it was just a for a measurable snow for the LV . The other snow predictions I made were  mentioned in another thread for the total snow amounts for the year. Thats simple wish-casting. I was predicting weather in the Navy as an air traffic controller before the internet was even born. I do not rely solely on computer modelogy. Sorry

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29 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

NO guilty conscience here- just stating historical analog facts. we will see. By the way I have only called for snow once in the last 30 days and it was just a for a measurable snow for the LV . The other snow predictions I made were  mentioned in another thread for the total snow amounts for the year. Thats simple wish-casting. I was predicting weather in the Navy as an air traffic controller before the internet was even born. I do not rely solely on computer modelogy. Sorry

My bad I must be thinking of something else. I really dont follow LV much...you guys could have 50" on the season so far and I would probably be oblivious. All is well my friend. Lets hope at some point this winter we can both cash in together.

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17 hours ago, RedSky said:

Euro is an inland barn crusher further south than 12z. 

I'll take two Barn-crushers to-go with a side of sleet! My guess is that this is going to spread out, and be warmer with less intense precipation than currently modeled on the GFS. Hard to get something going with the PV flowing so vigorously. 

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My bad I must be thinking of something else. I really dont follow LV much...you guys could have 50" on the season so far and I would probably be oblivious. All is well my friend. Lets hope at some point this winter we can both cash in together.

just clarification  thanks . I want everyone to cash in on our snow starved area. We need the snow for adequate groundwater recharge for the spring. I would love to wishcast but in reality, a la nina year sucks for us. Three years in a row has virtually destroyed the water supply/river system for the entire country, not just for our area.  I would love to see a neutral year next year with arctic area intrusions by clippers every three days and a good nor'easter with drifting snow thrown into the mix. What really concerns however is our area is WAY overdue for a major ice event. The way these patterns are setting up this year for potential overrunning and Miller B's  that just might happen.  Thanks

 

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29 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

just clarification  thanks . I want everyone to cash in on our snow starved area. We need the snow for adequate groundwater recharge for the spring. I would love to wishcast but in reality, a la nina year sucks for us. Three years in a row has virtually destroyed the water supply/river system for the entire country, not just for our area.  I would love to see a neutral year next year with arctic area intrusions by clippers every three days and a good nor'easter with drifting snow thrown into the mix. What really concerns however is our area is WAY overdue for a major ice event. The way these patterns are setting up this year for potential overrunning and Miller B's  that just might happen.  Thanks

 

 Just to keep it real - we are far from snow starved based on climatology. While last year was a below average 20.5" of snow for Chester County the prior winter we received 52.2" of snow - well above our normal snowfall in at least the western Philly burbs of 36" - combined the last 2 years we are spot on average! Also we have averaged above normal precipitation over the last 4 straight years.

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

0z runs are a dumpster fire

Morphing into a fropa across guidance. Im sure we havent seen the last of the changes tho either.

Hopefully those epic looks in the LR for the week leading up to Christmas hold. Has the look of cold but dry. Supression concerns?  But what do I know? Is Lucy warming up for an extended appearance? 

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A chilly light rain is falling this morning across much of Chester County. Up to 0.25" of rain could fall in some spots today. Clearing tonight and then dry through Wednesday. It looks snow may arrive on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, models today now show a pretty quick change to rain...but as we have said expect models to bounce around a bit before we get some consensus by mid-week.
The record high for today is 68 degrees from way back in 1897. The record low is 2 above zero from 1968. The daily rain record is the 1.95" from 2002. Record snow is the 9" that fell today back in 1960.
image.png.901d579a08e9f9b679126d140bbc132d.png
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