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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Not liking the 18z GFS in regards to next week or anything for that matter.

??

GFS made improvements letting the stj sw escape and not plowing the trof into the western US like prior runs. Its the op tho but still improved. Sets up better for later near Christmas imho just based verbatim on the op.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

??

GFS made improvements letting the stj sw escape and not plowing the trof into the western US like prior runs. Its the op tho but still improved. Sets up better for later near Christmas imho just based verbatim on the op.

18z GFS certainly did make a move towards the 12z CMC solution.  12z GFS and CMC were off oh about 850 miles now they are off by about 145 miles LOL.  There is significant potential Dec. 23rd from what I can see.  It's becoming clear to me looking over the models over the last week until today is that the storm coming Wednesday to late Friday is the pattern changer then we look to get hit good the weekend of Christmas December 23rd.

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Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

18z GFS certainly did make a move towards the 12z CMC solution.  12z GFS and CMC were off oh about 850 miles now they are off by about 145 miles LOL.  There is significant potential Dec. 23rd from what I can see.  It's becoming clear to me looking over the models over the last week until today is that the storm coming Wednesday to late Friday is the pattern changer then we look to get hit good the weekend of Christmas December 23rd.

So close let run finish. Gefs will have some hits

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Op's are superior however and ECM&GFS are a great lakes low

Well, we have more than a week to track so it will change numerous times. As for the GL low, very rarely do we get a winter wx event without that feature. It is common. We dont see it with clippers of course...but when was the last time we had a legit Alberta Clipper? I seriously cannot remember. They are a thing of lore these days that we tell our kids and grandkids about. If you have the 1st KU NE winter storm book, a good majority of those had the GL low. That feature doesnt always spell gloom and doom.

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35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, we have more than a week to track so it will change numerous times. As for the GL low, very rarely do we get a winter wx event without that feature. It is common. We dont see it with clippers of course...but when was the last time we had a legit Alberta Clipper? I seriously cannot remember. They are a thing of lore these days that we tell our kids and grandkids about. If you have the 1st KU NE winter storm book, a good majority of those had the GL low. That feature doesnt always spell gloom and doom.

When they stay the primary you flusha the toilet

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Another chilly day today before clouds increase and snow and or sleet begin right after rush hour tomorrow morning. The NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory up for the area...but still some differences in forecasted snow totals. Best bet is up to 1" of snow....with more the further north and west you go. We should then see a quick change over to a wind swept heavy rain by early afternoon. Stay tuned for later updates.
The record high for today is 65.3 degrees from 2015. The record low is the 4 above zero from 1989. Daily rain record is 2.06" from 1897. Daily snow record is the 8.7" that fell today in 1917.
image.png.f88728146c8b9a7b7cb0b6a295a83d93.png
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Good luck to those in the NW areas but this event is a nothing burger around 95, if not for timing around the morning rush, I doubt we even see the WWA's.

 

Looking long term...I fail to see how this 500 MB look results in a pre-christmas cutter, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's that if there's a will there's a way...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_38.png

 

 

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22 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Christmas is going to be frigged no matter what but the chances of significant snowfall are slipping.

 

A couple snow showers, moderate flurries or a squall to cover the ground along w/the cold is all we need. Just having a no blow torch Christmas is a victory in itself...

38F/Cloudy 

Accuweather: 

awchr.jpg

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40 minutes ago, RedSky said:

New England region is in the game still but we need to win the last four games and need all kinds of help.

Our best hope looking at the ECM ensembles is some kind of backlash snow deal like December 2002

?

The eps mean is damn near perfect for the first measurable of the season for many.

Eta: we're talking about the same system dec 22-23 yes?

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

?

The eps mean is damn near perfect for the first measurable of the season for many.

Eta: we're talking about the same system dec 22-23 yes?

I was thinking the same thing. That eps is as close to perfect as u can get for 8 days out... what's the saying. The big ones are sniffed.... ahhh nevermind 

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