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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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33 minutes ago, Newman said:

There are some huge indi GEFS members this run. Some faster on the 23rd, some slower on the 24th. Multiple hits, and the lean right now would be a SE scraper, not NW and a cutter. The mean 8 days out is an advisory, borderline warning level, snowstorm

image.thumb.png.2969e8da0d611de55d0d46e5fbbc94c3.png

Again, another nice ens means snowfall map. GEFS joined the eps in that regard. Lonnnggg ways to go but at this range, all the pieces we want to see coming together seem to be as opposed to going the wrong way. By saturday night/sunday we should start to see things narrow to 2 distinct camps or so. For now, enjoy the tracking and dont get too locked in to any one scenario.

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Made a post elsewhere...this is becoming a potential where we whiten the ground even with a poorly timed setup like we are seeing. Im not going to say it cant fail, but almost every model has now shown solutions at h5 that look fail-ish yet it still snows on those progs. We are seeing a good bit of wiggle room. And as someone else mentioned we dont need a HECS. Im quite content with a ground whitener for the 24th-25th holiday anything more is an absolute bonus :santa::snowing: 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Made a post elsewhere...this is becoming a potential where we whiten the ground even with a poorly timed setup like we are seeing. Im not going to say it cant fail, but almost every model has now shown solutions at h5 that look fail-ish yet it still snows on those progs. We are seeing a good bit of wiggle room. And as someone else mentioned we dont need a HECS. Im quite content with a ground whitener for the 24th-25th holiday anything more is an absolute bonus :santa::snowing: 

It's MECS or HECS now or bust dude the train has left the station

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Made a post elsewhere...this is becoming a potential where we whiten the ground even with a poorly timed setup like we are seeing. Im not going to say it cant fail, but almost every model has now shown solutions at h5 that look fail-ish yet it still snows on those progs. We are seeing a good bit of wiggle room. And as someone else mentioned we dont need a HECS. Im quite content with a ground whitener for the 24th-25th holiday anything more is an absolute bonus :santa::snowing: 

From your lips to Gods ears.

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny thing is that is not even well-timed wrt the phasing....happens just a hair too late to nail us yet we still get 10"+.....nice potential there for something for sure. I'm thinking White Christmas odds are quickly rising near 50% now.

Agree, the timing was off and we still got widespread 6+". The ceiling is without a doubt 12"+ widespread, but guidance showing warning level snows even with the pieces sloppy is encouraging

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6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's MECS or HECS now or bust dude the train has left the station

I've always been a HECS or bust type of person when the ingredients are all on the table. A sneaky 2-4" event two days before? Definitely welcomed. A big dog being progged days to weeks out? Yep, give me the big thing. I will of course take anything for a White Christmas, but I will be chasing this thing for big one potential

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18 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's MECS or HECS now or bust dude the train has left the station

I respectfully disagree. There is still a fairly broad range of solutions that 95% of them whiten the ground whether that be a coating up to 34" on some individual ens members. Im not greedy when it comes to snow. Would love a HECS but I just want to get on the board for now tbh and a white ground for Christmas weekend is beyond just a win. If you are locked in for a MECS/HECS more power to ya. Just 18 hours ago you were telling us how this has almost zero potential.

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