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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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Btw, this ^^^ is also the reason that expectations should always stay in-check. Just because an ens means may show a gorgeous west based nao block, alot still needs to come together properly for a snow event, especially along the i95 corridor. That said, I would still rather have the HL looks we are seeing so far this season and take my chances with that rather than all blues and lp up North. Throw us enough chances and we will cash in. Patience rules in a Nina, period.

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Dry and seasonably chilly start to the work week through Wednesday. It looks like a major storm will impact the area with our first nor'easter of the season starting on Thursday. As always the exact track of the storm will determine how much if any snow or ice we get before any change to rain.
The record high for today is 69 degrees from 2015. Our record low is 2 degrees above zero set in 1988. The rain record is 1.98" from 1993. Our daily snow record is the 3" from 1916.
image.png.a3a4998b539741d011292132cd278241.png
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18z GFS is depicting some wrap-around snow as the low departs Friday/Saturday.

As some quick obs, I made it up to 41 today after a low of 33.  Had a little drive-by rain shower early this morning for 0.01" and with 0,11" yesterday, ended up with a 0.12" 2-day total.  Skies were unsettled in general today with the sun fighting to appear and then giving up.

Currently 37 with dp 31
 

floop-gfs-18z-2022121218.prateptype_cat.conus-12122022.gif

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Can't wait to be on the line receiving white rain again, nailed this being a gnashing of teeth period alright.

 

But this is the new normal around here gnashing of teeth.  You can thank the Nina and warm Atlantic.  When the Atlantic is warm it is a dam if you do dam if you don't teeter totter that we ride between storm intensity, track, and lower and upper-level wind flow off ever warming ocean to our east and southeast. 

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

18z GFS is depicting some wrap-around snow as the low departs Friday/Saturday.

As some quick obs, I made it up to 41 today after a low of 33.  Had a little drive-by rain shower early this morning for 0.01" and with 0,11" yesterday, ended up with a 0.12" 2-day total.  Skies were unsettled in general today with the sun fighting to appear and then giving up.

Currently 37 with dp 31
 

floop-gfs-18z-2022121218.prateptype_cat.conus-12122022.gif

Hmm that's quite a jump to the east of the low along the coast and then gets shoved off the coast.  If that storm is intensifying at all I would think it could drag down some cold air from the north and switch rain to snow along and just north and west of the Delaware River Wilmington towards Trenton. 

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1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

But this is the new normal around here gnashing of teeth.  You can thank the Nina and warm Atlantic.  When the Atlantic is warm it is a dam if you do dam if you don't teeter totter that we ride between storm intensity, track, and lower and upper-level wind flow off ever warming ocean to our east and southeast. 

It's not just La Nina and a "warm" ocean.  It's still December and unless there are some really anomalous cold outbreaks early in fall, the ocean isn't really going to hit it's coldest temps until well into February, which is the typical lag.

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Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's not just La Nina and a "warm" ocean.  It's still December and unless there are some really anomalous cold outbreaks early in fall, the ocean isn't really going to hit it's coldest temps until well into February, which is the typical lag.

Yes, true true then there is December 23rd, 2009, when we got 23" of snow in Media with a water temperature at ACY at 53 degrees.  

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4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Hmm that's quite a jump to the east of the low along the coast and then gets shoved off the coast.  If that storm is intensifying at all I would think it could drag down some cold air from the north and switch rain to snow along and just north and west of the Delaware River Wilmington towards Trenton. 

Could be a mid-range blip.  Will have to see what the 0z says...

 

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yes, true true then there is December 23rd, 2009, when we got 23" of snow in Media with a water temperature at ACY at 53 degrees.  

2009 - 2010 was an El Nino winter but anytime you have some kind of tucked coastal, it's gonna wrap in too much warm air just inland.  If you get a juiced up clipper with enough intensity and antecedent cold air, you could get walloped as the ocean moisture wraps in around the low and loses the battle with the cold air as the low approaches the coast.

This thing almost looks like an overrunning precip event pulling moisture out of the GOM first before it spins something off the coast.

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Dry the next 2 days with slightly below normal temps in the upper 30's for highs across the County. Clouds will increase with snow arriving Thursday AM...we should see a quick turn over to rain from southeast to northwest during the mid-morning hours. Up to an inch of snow is the current early NWS forecast. Some models have up to 3" for NW sections of Chester County but we don't shovel models.
The record high for today is 69.7 set in 2015. The record low is 2 above zero from 1988. Record rainfall is the 4.21" that fell back in 1909. Daily snow record is 6.8" from 1915. image.png.08e491b05c4eec2abaf30807d2e1498f.png
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