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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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Some RERs for record warm low at some sites yesterday -

My own "low" for Wednesday was 51 just before midnight last night.  My high for yesterday was 55 and I got another 0.01" of leftover rain for a total of 0.12", and 0.98" as a 2-day event total.

It's currently 48, partly cloudy with a Full Cold Moon setting, and dp 46.

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36 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

So to summarize, we got another week of temps above freezing. Then the front next weekend will give us that first legit shot of cold air followed by what might be the first legit snow threat?  We got two weeks to work with.  Strap in kids! 

 

Until the PNA cooperates, the way it appears to my old eyes is the EPO ridge forces the cold in behind these powerful fronts pushing the PJ underneath us. Thats obviously an ingredient we need. But in a Nina base we are always fighting the SER and the flow around it. So when the cold is plowing thru it fights against the SE ridge that wants to flex. This can work with neutral PNA (minus a raging EPO ridge) and we can cash in on gradient or boundary waves which is a more common pattern that can produce. But from my experience when we fight a -PNA and rely on a strong -EPO alone, we generally go cold/dry with sheared out systems under us. Not making a forecast on this but saying we want the -PNA to ease and not rely solely on a stout -EPO on the Pac side....otherwise we can get too much of a  good thing (cold). We should be watching the ens and cpc to see what is going to happen with the PNA. A weak split off the W Coast could help too and there is sone promise down the road.  

 

pna.gefs.sprd2.png

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7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The PNA will go.. Positive Dec19-29, watch models skew/trend

Chuck im fine with a neutral or pos PNA. Im not a huge fan of seeing the EPO flex tho as it brings back memories of some past Nina's that were just cold/dry with a shred factory under us. We want the PNA to do as you noted and will monitor this but moreso keeping tabs on the EPO that ens are starting to flex. 

Eta: and with the tendencies for higher heights at high lat already being persistent this season, the EPO flex is a definite possibility. We could go warm/wet to cold dry back and forth. We will have chances but are going to need patience. We could be grinding teeth for periods.

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ENSO is kind of getting broadbrushed by greater global happenings. In the subsurface there is a +5-7f warm pool, when this moves across 180W, we usually go +PNA. This will be 3/3 indicators for the Dec19-29 period (another is global 40-45N consistency since Aug). Another is the strong reverse correlation of -0.70 to -0.90 of last years conditions: And last year we had our strongest -PNA on record for 10 days. That's like -0.90 correlation. I like that the STJ is wetter than normal. That's not that common for a La Nina, but that Kelvin wave hitting the central subsurface could be correlated (last years Kelvin wave was drier). I hate -EPO now as it's High pressure in the north, and today we have +500dm -NAO and record lows by 4-5 degrees. they eventually skew the overall pattern warmer. (Sorry I hate wasting my energy.) 

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22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

ENSO is kind of getting broadbrushed by greater global happenings. In the subsurface there is a +5-7f warm pool, when this moves across 180W, we usually go +PNA. This will be 3/3 indicators for the Dec19-29 period (another is global 40-45N consistency since Aug). Another is the strong reverse correlation of -0.70 to -0.90 of last years conditions: And last year we had our strongest -PNA on record for 10 days. That's like -0.90 correlation. I like that the STJ is wetter than normal. That's not that common for a La Nina, but that Kelvin wave hitting the central subsurface could be correlated (last years Kelvin wave was drier). I hate -EPO now as it's High pressure in the north, and today we have +500dm -NAO and record lows by 4-5 degrees. they eventually skew the overall pattern warmer. (Sorry I hate wasting my energy.) 

Energy not wasted at all. Appreciate the engagement in a constructive discussion. Thanks for your research.

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Today looks to be our last above normal temp day for quite a while. Our temperatures looks to average near to below normal for most days between now and Christmas Day. There will also be multiple chances of some wintry weather. The first chance will be some snow mixing in with rain on Sunday into Sunday night and again on Wednesday. Mainly higher spots in the county over 550 ft will have chances to see some minor small accumulations on non-paved surfaces.
The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1980. Our record low is 12 degrees from 1959. Daily rain record is the 1.94" from 1978. The daily snow record is 4.7" from 1917.
image.png.cad42c0767d413bdc592489a78c828a0.png
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18 minutes ago, RedSky said:

 

Another overcast mostly sunny day.  Keeps happening.

 

 

Shore cams were showing partly/mostly skies earlier.

I'm happy w/my early fog/low clouds/overcast and 50F temps. Don't want any parts of sunshine. Overcast days you can put your hard labored outdoor lights on and people can see them and don't have to wait till nightfall...  

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Ensembles continue to trend with the pattern and the gfs op seeing the pattern in effect. 6z delivers:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.thumb.png.840b2423c76c53f061862261504d0f69.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.thumb.png.2e47c0efd77687e7ad55e5e0d3d59e01.png

Catalyst is the PNA popping out west. Watch the trends here as the NAO acrually retracts and retrogrades West eventually to the epo beyond this. Said +heights link up with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Really cool to watch the trends here and textbook how the NAO relaxes briefly as all this happens:

470766562_image000000(1).gif.c227005988aea522726d44425f86b3a0.gif

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We are starting a pattern today of seasonably cold temperatures that should last through much of the holiday season. In addition there will be multiple chances of rain and snow every few days during this stretch. The first such chance will be with some snow possibly arriving by Sunday AM changing to rain. More mixed wintry precipitation could arrive Wednesday night. The latest US Model (GFS) hints at a major snowstorm by next weekend....but we don't shovel models!
The record high for today is the 71 degrees from 1966 (during the following 3 weeks almost 3 feet of snow would fall including over 20" with lightning on Christmas Eve 1966) The record low for today is 6 degrees from 1989. Record rain is the 1.80" from 2009. Our record snow was the 7.8" that fell today in 2005.
image.png.12ae92352130cb34f8fe3a37e6ef16e2.png
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