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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro is a disaster bro. Primary strong asf entire eastern US save for New England flooded with mild air. Not sure what youre seeing my friend.

Euro with over a foot in some spots of Bucks and Lehigh counties - see above...of course just a model run but close

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3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Euro with over a foot in some spots of Bucks and Lehigh counties - see above...of course just a model run but close

I dont go by snow maps 6 days out, use the upper air charts at this range. I deleted my post intentionally as interior and North does ok. SE PA the norm. We take for mid Dec. Lots of time.

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12 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'm invoking the WDI (we're due index). I don't believe I had a warning level event last year. Mother Nature owes me bigly. Just nice seeing all those reds and blues where we want them for a change.

I feel like the last winter storm warning was 2016. I know that isnt true but feels like it. They truly are few and far between anymore or at least thats my perception.

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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If it makes you feel better, the GFS recently had that upgrade, so wrt if it helped or hurt the model, we just cant know yet.

Sitting here looking at the 18z ECM ensembles made a significant move south into the GFS camp, unsettling.

* first time seeing 12z too also south

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Sitting here looking at the 18z ECM ensembles made a significant move south into the GFS camp, unsettling.

* first time seeing 12z too also south

0z GFS continues the shred and south.  Maybe it becomes a southern slider or trends back north time will tell.   I think we have seen this song and dance before in the past though.  Now with that said the zonal look does have me worried under the block, but hey the cold will come and line things up for maybe December 18th to 24th period. 

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Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

0z GFS continues the shred.  I think we have seen this song and dance before in the past though.  Now with that said the zonal look does have me worried under the block, but hey the cold will come and line things up for maybe December 18th to 24th period. 

Going with a gut feeling here the GFS shred factory wins

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