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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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It's great blocking working with tepid Polar air. The one thing that has changed over the last week is the arctic air is shunted to the other side of the pole. Mid month could be a time of pulling the hair and gnashing of teeth, if it was just a few degrees colder, if only it was January, 33F and rain aaarrrrggggg.

Farther north the better too lol.

 

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33 minutes ago, RedSky said:

 

It's great blocking working with tepid Polar air. The one thing that has changed over the last week is the arctic air is shunted to the other side of the pole. Mid month could be a time of pulling the hair and gnashing of teeth, if it was just a few degrees colder, if only it was January, 33F and rain aaarrrrggggg.

Farther north the better too lol.

 

Luckily analogs with this type of blocking have it a base state all winter. It is still wayyyy early. But yes, in a few weeks with climo peaking we should be golden

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Still like the Dec 10th-20th period and some discrete threat signals showing up. Best look shows up later in that range. But all 3 global ens means are now on board with the PNA being neutral or slight positive and a decent coastal signal with blocking anchored in place. Some less threatening looks appear prior to this and you know how that goes....focus on LR and sonething pops up sooner sometimes. So take it with a few grains of salt:

 

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gem-ens_z500a_nhem_52.png

eps_z500a_nhem_52.png

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12z eps way out there past day 12 starts moving a piece of the PV closer to the Aleutians helping to pump the EPO (in addition to the neutral PNA which begins around day 8/9). By end of run the central PAC ridge is replaced with a more neutral look. I would take my chances with this look every day of the week and twice on Sunday:

eps_z500a_nhem_56.png

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A frosty start to the day with teens in the lower spots below 450ft. A sunny Monday - but after that a pretty unsettled week ahead. Mild but wet weather through Thursday then chilling down to normal weather for what looks like an extended stretch. By the time we get to the weekend and into next week we may have some chances of some wintry precipitation.
The record high for today is 75 degrees from 2001. Our record low is 10 degrees set back in 1926. The daily rain mark is 3.27" from 1993. The daily snow record was the 8.5" that fell today back in 2003.
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Ended up with a 57 high Saturday, followed by a 43 high yesterday after a low of 28.

This morning the bottom fell out with a low of 23 and scrape-able frost on all  the cars.  It's currently 24 with dp 23 and a deck of cirrus overhead.

In other news, both the GFS and EC progs for the MJO don't inspire a potential for a major cold dump during that 3rd week of December even with the NAO fairly negative during that period, although a couple GEFS & EPS members appear in phase 8 for this week.

 

(Ensemble GFS)

ensplume_full.gif

 

(Operational GFS)

combphase_noCFSfull.gif

 

ECMF.png

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Always enjoy posts from our own Larry Cosgrove....still remember his days on Channel 17 (especially during the Blizzard of 1996) his thoughts on the upcoming pattern change and impacts

"There are two key drivers to the evolving pattern in North America. One is the building and retrogression of a blocking ridge in Greenland, which looks to shift into Nunavut AR in the third week of this month. The ridge displaces the current Arctic cold pool and 500MB vortex, and forces the chill to stream into coverage to the right of the Continental Divide.
Another factor favoring a more wintry look to the lower 48 states is the southern branch jet stream. Aided by an energy/moisture input form the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and already nudging into the American Southwest, the subtropical wind field will contain disturbances that will wear down the heat ridge complex straddling the southern Gulf of Mexico. The initial impulse should bring heavy rain and thunderstorms in the near term in a belt close to Interstate 40 (Oklahoma City OK to Wilmington NC). But the second and third storms will be stronger, tap into colder air next week, and may yank the snow line further south into the Ohio Valley and middle/upper Appalachia by December 15.
If model projections of the ridge complex near the Arctic Circle verify, we may see another two storms riding the rim of a very cold air mass over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. between December16-25. The CFS platform suggests that this configuration will last until about January 8 2023, then give way to what looks to be a very impressive, ten to fourteen day "January Thaw"."

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A stretch of unsettled weather starts today with rain and wet snow chances every day through Saturday. Temps start mild but trend colder by Thursday night when we could see some mixing with snow. We should dry out by Saturday afternoon.
The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1998. The record low is 8 degrees above zero from 1902. Record rain is the 1.47" in 2013. Record daily snow is the 6.7" that fell today in 1910.
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We have picked up 1.12" of rain since yesterday morning. With 0.11" since midnight. Some additional showers are possible and continued mild today. The main change to the longer term forecast is a prolonged period of normal to slightly below temperatures for mid to late December with even some wet snow chances toward Saturday morning.
Our record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1998. The record low is 1 above zero set in 1926. The daily rain mark is the 2.04" that fell in 1914. Daily snow record is the 8.0" that fell today in 1959.
image.png.33aab3c31c7734ef8c03f803d3e67f58.png
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My Monday high was 46 and yesterday's was 56 after a low of 47 and 0.86" of rain.  This morning netted an additional 0.11" of rain so far (for a 0.97" 2-day event total), with a mild low of 53 so far.    Mt. Holly noted that multiple CWA climate sites may tie or break record high mins for today (I suppose dependent on the timing of the cold front later tonight and bleeding in of that colder air before midnight) -

I was surprised not to see fog earlier this morning - mostly mist - BUT the fog has rolled in now and is under 1/10th of a mile in places.

It's currently 54 with dp 53 and foggy/misty.

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4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

South trend continues...

 

NAM will be getting in range next few runs. Im thinking this sets up as more an elevation 'event' and far NW thing tbh....and certainly not a warning criteria event. If we had a decent antecedent cold air mass in place, could have possibly been better. But most places in SEPA outside of those I noted are going to be watching CAA chasing the departing precip and that generally isnt an easy scenario for accums Maybe some wet flakes all the way to the Delaware River, not expecting this to morph into anything significant here. Mulch/car topper to get some on the board perhaps. Lets watch the trends tho and obviously fine tune things. We all know how the weather can flip on a dime. 

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