Newman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS has Jan 25, 2000 vibes with the frontrunner off the SE Coast. It has been trending slower. Have a hunch this morphs into one single entity that is a more organized and slower final system as the se coast energy waits for the upper level support to ignite the powder keg. Lake Superior solutions non existent at 0z thus far. CMC is unfortunately another huge cutter. But I agree, I did get Jan 2000 vibes with it too. Verbatim, it's pretty strung out and disorganized which actually helps out because heights don't rise too much. It also doesn't close off until at or north of our latitude on the GFS. I said yesterday I was chasing the big dog, but I might have to walk back that statement. It doesn't look nearly as ideal as it once did, so right now I'm chasing a white christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Newman said: CMC is unfortunately another huge cutter. But I agree, I did get Jan 2000 vibes with it too. Verbatim, it's pretty strung out and disorganized which actually helps out because heights don't rise too much. It also doesn't close off until at or north of our latitude on the GFS. I said yesterday I was chasing the big dog, but I might have to walk back that statement. It doesn't look nearly as ideal as it once did, so right now I'm chasing a white christmas I will never forget looking at the radar the night prior to that storm saying huh, that convection off the se coast should have been moving ene by now as per guidance. Woke up next morning to that convection being ignited by upper level support and becoming a powerful coastal storm lumbering due N up the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Although rain, this would be one hell of a front on the Canadian. 55 to 16 in 6 hours here LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I remember coming home from work that evening and the forecast was still light snow along the coast. But the radar showed the precipitation moving due north…one of the few times weenie radar hallucinations paid off! Anyway, CMC…if nothing else, still looks like a wild frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Newman said: Although rain, this would be one hell of a front on the Canadian. 55 to 16 in 6 hours here LOL Jinx! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I can’t really read much but I think the 6z GFS improved again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I can’t really read much but I think the 6z GFS improved again? There's too much wild stuff going on in that run. I think it (and other models) are having a problem with how (including amplification) and where the midwest trough will set up as that will determine where these shortwaves go. If that arctic trough really amps, it could generate lake cutters or app runners. If it is less amped, the lows can develop further east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GEFS mean has a classic coastal low but the mean temps are all over the place while that is moving by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Quiet but seasonably chilly stretch of weather on the way through Wednesday. Then as the National Weather Service is saying this morning "Stay tuned for changes to the forecast, and our area should prepare for anything from heavy rain and gusty winds with some coastal flooding to snow and ice Thursday into Friday, with a very cold airmass likely to follow for next weekend." Lots of model disagreements but expect to gain a bit more consensus by Tuesday AM. The record high for today is 62 degrees from 2000. The record low is 1 below zero from 1910. Daily rain record is 2.99" from 2000. The daily snow record is the 7.5" that fell in 1932. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Some interesting climate data analysis by month for Western Chester County PA. I wanted to see the differences in our local county climate comparing NWS coop observations taken at 340 ft above sea level (ASL) which were recorded from January 1894 through 1982 (89 years) vs. the observations that have been recorded now for the last 40 years at over 660 ft ASL. Some results that might be surprising to some. Overall very little change in our average temperatures since the 1890's +0.7%. However, somewhat cooler warm season months and warmer cold season months. The biggest differences have been in increased precipitation +9.7% and increased snowfall by 14.1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Might be time to start switching gears and root for a strong arctic frontal passage with snow squalls that can quickly whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Christmas doesn't even look all that brutally cold anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, JTA66 said: Might be time to start switching gears and root for a strong arctic frontal passage with snow squalls that can quickly whiten the ground. Big fan of snow squalls/wind w/colder air rolling in...more so than a long ass 1-2" light snow event. Also, the phone will give off that death sound alert but in a good way... 40F/Partly cloudy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Big fan of snow squalls/wind w/colder air rolling in...more so than a long ass 1-2" light snow event. Also, the phone will give off that death sound alert but in a good way... 40F/Partly cloudy Yeah, I was at Miller’s Ale House in Montgomeryville last year when those snow squalls came through…everyone’s phone blew up at the same time. Thought we were about to get carpet bombed by the Luftwaffe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS output of 60F with 60mph winds on the 24th At midnight? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 New Years Eve 65F South Philly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 LOL 12z GFS generated a blue norther for TX and that extreme amplification created an apps runner/lGL cutter bomb (although verbatim, it looked like it was trying to get some kind of coastal disturbance going that had its strength sucked away by the inland bomb). And we know these models are going to go all over the place from now until at least Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Full on Kenny Rogers roaster southeast ridge in fantasy land damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still a cold Christmas day so there's that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I think this was the "a lot of rain" option run that Mt. Holly mentioned this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: New Years Eve 65F South Philly! What happens in December, the winter will remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I think this was the "a lot of rain" option run that Mt. Holly mentioned this morning. It's a swamp around here can't take anymore rain. I fear mosquitoes on New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's a swamp around here can't take anymore rain. I fear mosquitoes on New Years. The unevenness of the precipitation this year highlights how we were feast or famine. We are already about a foot above normal for rainfall this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Newman said: Christmas doesn't even look all that brutally cold anymore From epic BN temps coast to coast to pretty much normal with BN in the expected Nina favored area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, RedSky said: Full on Kenny Rogers roaster southeast ridge in fantasy land damn Backloaded winter....Ides of March will be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z Euro is running so will see which way that goes! As an obs, my low was 35 this morning and my high was 43 just after 11:30 this morning and then the CAA started coming in. Am currently 41 with dp 27 and an unsettled sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 I'm out. Catch y'all sometime in 2023.......or tonight at 0z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z Euro still has the arctic front. Bar set at outperforming Thursday’s coating of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 !2z EC doing a cutter... I think both globals are looking at that arctic amplification. Will have to see if that relaxes later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 They both do try to spin up some kind of coastal thing though but both have that bomb-ey low out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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