Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Should see some snow showers next week as the clipper passes by and gets shredded to our South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Total novice just see colors on a model guy, but idk if I’ve ever seen the GFS consistently run after run show absolutely nothing Winter Storm wise in Pennsylvania this many days in a row for the entire 384hr run. I mean it’s pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 winter does not really begin for us until the last week in January. This entire cold front situation with snow showers was a joke and played up by the media big time. Cold yes, snow how pitiful. I would call this pattern we are in the -- (TOP) Tundra Oscillation Pattern . This pattern is distinctly seen in the overall La Nina and neutral years patterns for PA. The two ( cold and snow) never align themselves in this pattern. Every potential storm event is a thread the needle event and even Alberta clippers are hard to come by. Hard to believe New Years will be in the 50's. Again nothing worth tracking on the LR until after mid January even if the pattern flips. WE can speculate about the next storm but three years of a strong La Nina pattern has virtually destroyed the reliability of the so called better LR GFS models and my time of tracking them IMHO. Time to look beyond LR and rely on even better SR models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Total novice just see colors on a model guy, but idk if I’ve ever seen the GFS consistently run after run show absolutely nothing Winter Storm wise in Pennsylvania this many days in a row for the entire 384hr run. I mean it’s pretty wild. The great pattern...oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Euro crushes SE PA on Tuesday! We may double Seasonal totals. And it's only December. Damn! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro crushes SE PA on Tuesday! We may double Seasonal totals. And it's only December. Damn! Never doubt a great pattern According to Don S it's going to be the biggest snow fail December with this deep a -AO. We suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro crushes SE PA on Tuesday! We may double Seasonal totals. And it's only December. Damn! The big ones always get sniffed out early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro crushes SE PA on Tuesday! We may double Seasonal totals. And it's only December. Damn! the only thing that gets crushed is the hope that this dam La Nina pattern does not keep going on after mid Jan. This whole pattern now is a waste of energy to track and hope for a warning level snow event. If we cannot get a 2+ inch snow event even out of six days of below freezing highs, we suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 37 minutes ago, Albedoman said: the only thing that gets crushed is the hope that this dam La Nina pattern does not keep going on after mid Jan. This whole pattern now is a waste of energy to track and hope for a warning level snow event. If we cannot get a 2+ inch snow event even out of six days of below freezing highs, we suck. This is totally normal La Nina stuff though. Cold/dry warmup/wet. Early season epic pattern, late season HL blocking and convoluted flow, mid season 'thaw'. And when it is dry things are progressive and shredded under our region. Been saying forever it seems...be patient. Ninas are predictably backloaded. Still think we get a 10"+ storm here and exceed seasonal avg. That's was my outlook in that thread and not going to change it now. If it hits the waning days of Feb and we have yet to get anything and the lr outlook is closed blinds sorta thing then I will throw in the towel. Until then I see no reason. Get ready to track our snow showers on 12/27. Could be our biggest of the season so buckle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 18z NAM at range. Trends and friends folks.....trends and friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z NAM at range. Trends and friends folks.....trends and friends "If" this happens we roast a bit after. But hell, I'll take anything. Windy. I must have a little gap in my window. Once the wind blows, sounds like a little girl screaming. 15F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: "If" this happens we roast a bit after. But hell, I'll take anything. Windy. I must have a little gap in my window. Once the wind blows, sounds like a little girl screaming. 15F Yep, following this wave we r shutting the blinds until sometime in January probably after the 10th. But you know how things go in a Nina....LR can flip on a dime and go either direction. Eta: you're lucky to just get the noise from your windows. Several of mine on the West facing are showing their age as the curtains move when the wind gusts. Drafty asf. Damn old farmhouses. But it's character they said. You'll feel cozy they said. They don't build em like they used to, they said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just cracked single digits, 9F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 18z GFS keeps the dream alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 In all seriousness wouldn't be surprised to eek out a c-2" type as these clippers tend to juice up as we get closer. That is, of course, if the models don't lose it in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Mid-60s for New Years Day anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, following this wave we r shutting the blinds until sometime in January probably after the 10th. But you know how things go in a Nina....LR can flip on a dime and go either direction. Eta: you're lucky to just get the noise from your windows. Several of mine on the West facing are showing their age as the curtains move when the wind gusts. Drafty asf. Damn old farmhouses. But it's character they said. You'll feel cozy they said. They don't build em like they used to, they said. House is from 1877 but a brick shit house. No Problems for the most part. Front door was frozen going out late afternoon. My car door was probably stuck shut as well...a mess. Decided to walk. I'll tell these old houses are built for a nuclear war. Look closely, picture way back when w/a horse and buggy. McKeevers Bar, they are trying to restore it. It's a cool looking building...looks like a castle. 14F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Newman said: Mid-60s for New Years Day anyone? I'm seeing this...doesn't make me happy. Enjoy the cold/wind/14F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS keeps the dream alive We’re a snow town! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 33 minutes ago, Newman said: Mid-60s for New Years Day anyone? Bring it. Wiggum Rule during prime climo. Cmon 60!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Coldest temp recorded at my station since February 2019. That wind chill is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Current temp is 6 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2022 Author Share Posted December 25, 2022 Merry Christmas to all that celebrate! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2022 Author Share Posted December 25, 2022 Wiggum Rule watch in effect? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Merry Christmas all. Probably shouldn't have taken multiple Jeb walks the last several days. Ear lobes and finger tips are cracked...all good. The damn wind was killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 honestly, in my 40 years of forecasting, I have never seen so many "lake cutters LP's being forecasted in the LR models in a 3-4 week time frame. You would think one of them would run up along the coast. Those poor souls along the Great lakes region will see 48 inches of snow melt down to a foot only to refreeze and pile up again in January. I would not want to have a basement up there as the ground will be supersaturated and flooded. In the meantime enjoy your "January Thaw" in the next two weeks. Expect to see people wearing shorts again around New Years and after. No major snow event on the horizon for us to track in the next 15 days. Time to go get the lawn mower ready LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 We finished the combined Christmas Eve and Day holiday as the 3rd coldest in history behind only 1983 and 1980. Today should be our last below freezing day with our warming trend getting underway. We should stay dry till New Year's Eve. There is no sign of any cold weather returning till at least the 2nd week of January. The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1964. The record low is 2 below zero from 1980. The record precipitation is the 2.50" from 1909. That is also the record daily snow for the date as an additional 25" of snow fell on this date bringing the 2 day storm total to a whopping 38". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 27F/sunny/light wind, feels balmy. Walked to post office to check my PO Box, closed. Should have known. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Clouds lowering and thickening ahead of our clipper…an over performer so far. 27F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 A balmy 28* after the last 3 days it actually feels comfortable outside. Should feel like summer later this into next week “YUCK” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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