Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[TheDreamTraveler]

11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It was abnormally dry out there last year, and the valleys (where everyone in CA lives) depend on Sierra snowmelt for their water supply. Not to mention the increased wildfire risks that originates from dry winters. 

California's been in a mega drought since 2000 so this is desperately needed to try and put a dent in that thing. I think the last time the west went through a mega drought was back in the 1500's

[MAG5035]

As far as sensible weather, the only storm threat I’m really going to detail at much length currently is the system slated near that Sun/Mon timeframe. Looks to be a quick system that could deliver a broad area of light to perhaps moderate precip. Should note this has mainly been a GFS/Canadian thing as the Euro has not really shown much of a system or associated organized precip. To that point, the former have a bit of a stronger shortwave. 18z GFS tracked features a bit north of the 12z Canadian, thus showing more of a mixed bag and less snow for C-PA. Thats gonna be important because we don’t have much cold to work with. There’s some Canadian high involved but it’s quickly moving as well. Pretty much, if the weak surface low tracks south enough it should be just enough for a snow event. 

Going forward, I do see the potential late next week as we briefly amplify an eastern trough. Def would be looking for a coastal in that timeframe (D7-10) but I don’t like the ridge positioning in the central US and a western trough pressing. To me.. it honestly looks like that specific kind of window of opportunity for the folks further down the eastern seaboard to have better odds of seeing the first actual coastal snow event of the season than it does for us in a pattern that’s…workable.. but by no means ideal. Just my initial thoughts on it, there’s a lot of time to go. 

Still trying to make heads or tails of the longer term pattern.. and the models probably are too honestly. Really not liking the persistent (and strengthening) +EPO/WPO the models have been advertising though. What makes this work, at least for the next 6-10 days is the broad Canadian ridging centered near Hudson Bay. These strong systems via the very active and suppressed Pac jet crash into this when the impact the West Coast and pieces of the energy cross the US undercutting the ridge. So from a storm track standpoint, that gives us a chance. It’s kind of a Nino-esque pattern really. The problem with this setup is temps, even though it should be noted we’re at a time of the winter we can overcome that in our particular region. You look at any longer range guidance and ensembles lately and you can see the widespread + anomalies in most of the CONUS and Canada in 2m and 850 temps (generally higher + the higher in latitude one goes). The exception comes briefly in the timeframe of the late next week amplification opportunity when there is some decent - anomalies centered in the SE US. What this is generally suggesting is there’s no true cold/arctic air for the CONUS to tap into. Sure it’s “cold” in Canada but it’s an airmass that is significantly above normal for that region. Looking globally it really seems a lot of the significant cold anomalies reside in on the other side of the hemisphere in Asia (Russia/China) getting into the medium/long range of operational model guidance. 

It’s definitely a hard pattern to figure out, though they never seem to be easy lol. I figured something was going to give between the MJO being progged to go into 8-1 and the uglier Pac teleconnection forecasts. Instead the models are more solidly forecasting an 8-1 (probably 2) run and keeping the strong +EPO/WPO. They do seem to have it screwing around more (stall/looping in the edge of 7/8) before actually getting into phase 8, and I mentioned in my previous post that this isn’t an instantaneous thing either. It’s probably going to take another several days for models to really see and incorporate this if in fact the MJO does makes this run. It’s possible the eventual influence of this (which presumably would be a much colder/below average pattern in the eastern US) is still outside or on the edge of the D15 range. Just going back to last month it ended up taking about a week or so longer than it had been originally looking in late Nov/beginning of Dec. So that’s my best take on the pattern for now.

[pawatch]

45 degrees this morning.

Accuweather has me getting 3 hours of a snow mix tonight. But it looks like Mags area gets a little, It’s more to western pa.

Gripe: 56 degrees yesterday and can’t even get out on the river fishing.

 

 

[Bubbler86]

44 here this AM.  Did not feel comfortable opening the windows with the hit or miss showers flying around on radar so....the AC is on (cover off). 

[mahantango#1]

36.7 this morning hopefully we can dry out for a little after the recent rains, The winter springs are o[pen again and the ground is a little on the soggy side. So far this year I have .93 to start 2023.

[Jns2183]

45 here. Forecast not to be below 40 until late Friday night

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Itstrainingtime]

44 was my low overnight - was driving home from south Philly for the first and only time this year last night and it was between 58-64 the entire trip...at 10:00pm -  12 midnight on 1/4. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

44 was my low overnight - was driving home from south Philly for the first and only time this year last night and it was between 58-64 the entire trip...at 10:00pm -  12 midnight on 1/4. 

They were a winner!  Sorry had to say it. Anyways ;let's get this cold air back in the game. 

[sauss06]

47. nice spring morning outside

[anotherman]

I got back from Florida on January 2nd and it wasn't even a shock to be back in Pennsylvania in January.  Disgusting.

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I got back from Florida on January 2nd and it wasn't even a shock to be back in Pennsylvania in January.  Disgusting.

We've vacationed in Florida over the holidays about a dozen times over the years - we drove a lot of those times and would excitedly watch the temps drop on the car thermometer from the 70s down into the 20s as we made the journey north. A couple of those trips included bouts of wintry precip as well. I was thinking of those trips coming home from Philly late last night with temps the entire route within a couple of degrees of 60. I said to my wife "this is like an early to mid June kind of night". 

[Itstrainingtime]

4th day so far this year the AC has been running. And it's January 5th...

[canderson]

I have flowers budding. 

[Itstrainingtime]

On 12/6/2022 at 11:51 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

He certainly didn't seem overly excited about what he was seeing in the pattern. He acknowledged that there were a couple of things working for us, but he's also been adamant that there are issues to be resolved as well. For example, late December 2021 featured a strong -NAO and Lanco finished up at +8 for a temp departure:

"For anyone thinking that Greenland blocking (a -NAO) guarantees snow and cold for the mid-Atlantic States, you need only look back to last #December. The NAO was - for the last two weeks of the month, but temps were still 8°F above normal for the month at @millersvilleu..

The combination of a deep trough over western North America & ridging over the Southeast "offset" the -NAO & caused there to be very little snow and cold in southeastern PA. Although #December2022 should be chillier, we MAY see a modified version of this pattern."

It's only 12/6 so a lot can and probably will change, but the overall tone/demeanor has gotten notably more somber over the past several days. 

It's  been a month since I posted this - and I'm only reposting as several in here have asked me to please consider sharing MU's thoughts. A month ago, almost everyone in this thread was giddy in anticipation of snowy times ahead. MU was not. This ended being yet another great call, not only for the accuracy but also in the face of going against just about everyone else out there. I believe MU finished December with .1" of snow, despite an awful lot of pretty colored maps during the month. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2022 was the 11th warmest on record at Lanco in the past 109 years of record keeping. 

[Atomixwx]

2022 was the 11th warmest on record at Lanco in the past 109 years of record keeping. 

10 warmest years all falling after 1997 by chance?

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[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

10 warmest years all falling after 1997 by chance?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Sure seems like it, doesn't it?

[Itstrainingtime]

After looking at the guidance about as closely as I have in some time, to me it looks like we have a "decent" chance at something late next week. Sure seems like there's potential - but will this end up being potential that we end up shoveling? 

[CarlislePaWx]

Well, I've already exceeded my forecast high of 49 degrees by almost 3 degrees.  It's 51.6 degrees with full sun and almost no wind.  A day or two ago the NWS high temp for today was 55.  They should have stuck with that...lol.  Oh, my low this morning was 38.1.

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's  been a month since I posted this - and I'm only reposting as several in here have asked me to please consider sharing MU's thoughts. A month ago, almost everyone in this thread was giddy in anticipation of snowy times ahead. MU was not. This ended being yet another great call, not only for the accuracy but also in the face of going against just about everyone else out there. I believe MU finished December with .1" of snow, despite an awful lot of pretty colored maps during the month. 

The potential modeled atmospheric conditions did look like we might score more than we did so this ended up being much more spot on than we had hoped. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's  been a month since I posted this - and I'm only reposting as several in here have asked me to please consider sharing MU's thoughts. A month ago, almost everyone in this thread was giddy in anticipation of snowy times ahead. MU was not. This ended being yet another great call, not only for the accuracy but also in the face of going against just about everyone else out there. I believe MU finished December with .1" of snow, despite an awful lot of pretty colored maps during the month. 

Yeah he was correct in his assessment, but with all due respect, it also could have gone the other way (and in our favor).  I'm surely not alone in that assesment.  I think of 95-96 when things didnt look good, but we found our way to a grat winter despite the way things looked.  My rub is that you make it sound like as soon as some of us see tellies/indicies start too look favorable, that many instantly correlate that to perty colored snow maps that will absolutely verify.  Thats just not the case (for most of us).

While we all have different "skillsets" in our quest for snow, I'd suggest most realize that from a macro/basic perspective, we need certain indicators to be aligned to get a pattern that CAN work for us....even when it doesnt.  We  need certain indicies to be in favorable phases and sometimes in tandem to deliver the goods.  If I may speak on behalf of others, thats what I feel many of us are merely doing...looking for ways to get snow.  Of course some see it differently, and thats fine too. 

Without a good/decent "look" there is little chance.   

[Bubbler86]

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

I have flowers budding. 

Buds on trees as well.  Sucks. 

[pasnownut]

and to add to the gloom/reality.

looks like winter wheat is greening up already.  Darker green will attract more sun/heat and melt snow when we get some....Just like pavements do. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

After looking at the guidance about as closely as I have in some time, to me it looks like we have a "decent" chance at something late next week. Sure seems like there's potential - but will this end up being potential that we end up shoveling? 

 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah he was correct in his assessment, but with all due respect, it also could have gone the other way (and in our favor).  I'm surely not alone in that assesment.  I think of 95-95 when things didnt look good, but we found our way to a grat winter despite the way things looked.  My rub is that you make it sound like as soon as some of us see tellies/indicies start too look favorable, that many instantly correlate that to perty colored snow maps that will absolutely verify.  Thats just not the case (for most of us).

While we all have different "skillsets" in our quest for snow, I'd suggest most realize that from a macro/basic perspective, we need certain indicators to be aligned to get a pattern that CAN work for us....even when it doesnt.  We  need certain indicies to be in favorable phases and sometimes in tandem to deliver the goods.  If I may speak on behalf of others, thats what I feel many of us are merely doing...looking for ways to get snow.  Of course some see it differently, and thats fine too. 

Without a good/decent "look" there is little chance.   

In fairness to me, I do post/share when I feel it's warranted to do so, which I did several minutes before your post. Hey...I want it to snow BADLY, and I will jump on the excitement train when I feel it's warranted. Right now, I'm intrigued by late next week. Perhaps I'm more balanced than a lot in here, and that might in part be because I also see what can go wrong as well as what can go right.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

In fairness to me, I do post/share when I feel it's warranted to do so, which I did several minutes before your post. Hey...I want it to snow BADLY, and I will jump on the excitement train when I feel it's warranted. Right now, I'm intrigued by late next week. Perhaps I'm more balanced than a lot in here, and that might in part be because I also see what can go wrong as well as what can go right.  

PSUHoffman made a great post this morning - basically, he's intrigued by next week as well. What that means in reality is that we have a 25% chance of snow instead of 7%. I like that...I think it's really close to our reality. 

I'm looking for snow, but also understanding that way more times than not...we're going to end up on the brown side of things. Or in this year's case, maybe green side of things.  

[pasnownut]

48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

In fairness to me, I do post/share when I feel it's warranted to do so, which I did several minutes before your post. Hey...I want it to snow BADLY, and I will jump on the excitement train when I feel it's warranted. Right now, I'm intrigued by late next week. Perhaps I'm more balanced than a lot in here, and that might in part be because I also see what can go wrong as well as what can go right.  

I truely respect MU, but some of us can see when thing are looking more favorable, and don't need to be told when ...whether it happens or not.  Thats all I'm getting at.  Like you, I/others can also see the -'s just as much as the +'s in ANY pattern and most here know that 70% of the time things dont work out.  We've done this for far too long to deny that, and know that betting on the fail is always the safer bet.  Check my post history and you'll see ive said that numerous times over the years, but that said, if we would wait for only slam dunk patterns, this board would have died a long time ago. 

Thats just not realistic of late, and not how we typically win.  More often than not, hybrid/bootlegin snows seem to be our way to get snow...even if not ideal or how we'd like it, so some of us try to find the needle in the haystack and enjoy searchin for it and share w/ others.  

Many of us are more balanced than we get credit for, but when things start to look better, I've no fear in suggesting that....whether it happens or not. 

Theres always plenty of doom n gloom being shared, so I've no interest in adding to it....even when its warranted (like it was this past week).  I just take my mental break and casually look/wait for the next window to open.  I hope you get my points and am sharing because it seems that camps like to form in a discussion forum, that really should be an open discussion forum of what can and cant happen in any given event/period.  Noone should ever be dismissed for sharing thoughts (right or wrong) as thats the purpose of the board...NO??

Many with much more knowledge get it just as wrong sometimes....although probably with a little less frequency. 

[Bubbler86]

A sloppy snow to rain Thump still showing on the GFS for late weekend. 2M temps are not cold.   Meso's seem to want to keep precip south of us for now. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I truely respect MU, but some of us can see when thing are looking more favorable, and don't need to be told when ...whether it happens or not.  Thats all I'm getting at.  Like you, I/others can also see the -'s just as much as the +'s in ANY pattern and most here know that 70% of the time things dont work out.  We've done this for far too long to deny that, and know that betting on the fail is always the safer bet.  Check my post history and you'll see ive said that numerous times over the years, but that said, if we would wait for only slam dunk patterns, this board would have died a long time ago. 

Thats just not realistic of late, and not how we typically win.  More often than not, hybrid/bootlegin snows seem to be our way to get snow...even if not ideal or how we'd like it, so some of us try to find the needle in the haystack and enjoy searchin for it and share w/ others.  

Many of us are more balanced than we get credit for, but when things start to look better, I've no fear in suggesting that....whether it happens or not. 

Theres always plenty of doom n gloom being shared, so I've no interest in adding to it....even when its warranted (like it was this past week).  I just take my mental break and casually look/wait for the next window to open.  I hope you get my points and am sharing because it seems that camps like to form in a discussion forum, that really should be an online dscussion forum of what can and cant happen in any given event/period.  Noone should ever be dismissed for sharing thoughts (right or wrong) as thats the purpose of the board...NO??

Many with much more knowledge get it just as wrong sometimes....although probably with a little less frequency. 

I agree with almost everything that you shared here - the only thing I'll elaborate on is the part about "doom and gloom" posting. To me, the weather is the weather whether or not it's 75 or 5 in January. Comments regarding excessive warmth right now is not doom and gloom, I've seen none of that in our thread this week. I see a lot of people posting about what the weather is - abnormally warm. It's the current reality. And I'll post about it just like I post every day in July when it's 97. I enjoy posting about ALL kinds of weather. 

When people aren't posting about heavy snow and bitter cold that's not necessarily a negative indictment. 

Now - if someone says an hour before an obvious impending snowstorm "let me see how this can fail" - I will be the first one to call them out for being doom and gloom. 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree with almost everything that you shared here - the only thing I'll elaborate on is the part about "doom and gloom" posting. To me, the weather is the weather whether or not it's 75 or 5 in January. Comments regarding excessive warmth right now is not doom and gloom, I've seen none of that in our thread this week. I see a lot of people posting about what the weather is - abnormally warm. It's the current reality. And I'll post about it just like I post every day in July when it's 97. I enjoy posting about ALL kinds of weather. 

When people aren't posting about heavy snow and bitter cold that's not necessarily a negative indictment. 

Now - if someone says an hour before an obvious impending snowstorm "let me see how this can fail" - I will be the first one to call them out for being doom and gloom. 

I'm sure if you do a deep dive, you'll find negative connotations/comments regarding what it is and what it should be.  Call it what you want.  It no biggie to me, but not my jam.

Bing a realist (as many probably are in order to do this hobby for any length of time), is what many likely are, but I'm just not one to "pile it on" however it is stated.  Stating what it is....just fine..never said it was a problem. 

Not seen too many posting about heavy snow and bitter cold in the last few years, but some have found their way to decent snows, despite what the board isnt seeing or sharing....I had snowmobilers playing around at the cabin thru last thurs evening, but most here dont care, so I dont share.  Friends said conditions north of 80 were ranging from good to 10 outta 10 from Christmas thru thursday, so there was snow around....just not in our yards...where it counts most. 

Gotta run, someone find us some snow......

 

please.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Sunny and 58 approaching noon. Forecast high for today last I saw was 54.