Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[MJO812]

We really need La Nina to get lost

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I wouldn’t say it’s progressive, we really shorten the wavelengths in this period and we have Canadian ridging that allows this to undercut, and potentially even cut off. I think the big problem we’re going to come across with this potential system is going to be temps, something I’ve alluded to the other night in my post about the pattern during this timeframe. The 500mb feature positioning looks great for us considering the shortened wavelengths.

12z Euro v GFS height anomaly

 

Here’s the temp anomaly though for 12z Euro v GFS around the time of this storm being on the coast.

 

The SE is below average because it pulls enough cold down for - anomalies in that region but there’s no anomalous cold to be drawn down from Canada. The result if likely going to be a marginal event if this system comes to fruition. 

 

Thanks for the insight.  I didnt look at 500's, just surface panels, and from what I was seeing up until what you shared above, the 500's had a slight ridge/trough look to them, so I was going off those prior looks.  Yeah this surely shows it closed off, and would arguably pull the trough down as you suggest.  Your point about lack of cold is surely evident on surface panels.  IF this look continues, I'd hope column can cool enough to get it done for some/most in our group.

 

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We really need La Nina to get lost

Its like a hangover that you just cant get rid of. 

Only thing I'd say is that we are only in low end mod, and likely aoa peak, so it wasnt unreasonable to think that things could have broke slightly/notably better for what we've seen so far this winter.  We really did have a couple of ok/decent periods, but they just didnt break in our favor.  To the flip side, and at some point, you cant keep calling it bad luck, and have to rethink your thinking...right?

[Itstrainingtime]

42.3 here currently - temp has slowly but steadily fallen since a midday high of 46.4. Streak ends at 9 consecutive days at 50 or above. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-brightest-gamma-ray-burst-ever-recorded-rattled-earths-atmosphere/

 

 

In early October 2022 a wave of high-energy radiation swept over Earth from a gamma-ray burst, one of the most singularly catastrophic and violent events the cosmos has to offer. Astronomers quickly determined its distance and found it was the closest such burst ever seen: a mere two billion light-years from Earth. Or, if you prefer, 20 billion trillion kilometers away from us, a decent fraction of the size of the observable universe.

To astronomers, “close” means something different. This one was so close, cosmically speaking, that it was detected by a fleet of observatories both on and above Earth, and it is already yielding a trove of scientific treasure. But even from this immense distance in human terms, it was the brightest such event ever seen in x-rays and gamma rays, bright enough for people to spot its visible-light emission in smaller amateur telescopes, and was even able to physically affect our upper atmosphere. Despite that, this gamma-ray burst poses no danger to us. Either way, I’m glad they keep their distance.

Gamma-ray bursts, or GRBs, are intense blasts of gamma rays—the highest-energy form of light—that typically last from a fraction of a second to a few minutes in length. Gamma-ray bursts have been a puzzle to astronomers since the cold war, when the first one was discovered in the 1960s by orbiting detectors looking for nuclear weapons tested on or above Earth. More than 1,700 have been observed since then. Still, it took decades to pin any of them down well enough in the sky to observe them with more conventional telescopes and to understand better what they were. Even then it was difficult, as each GRB has idiosyncrasies, making them complicated to understand as a group.

 

A tweet by astrophysicist Rami Mandow pointed out that lightning detectors in India and Germany showed that the way pulses of electromagnetic radiation from lightning propagated changed suddenly at the same time the GRB energy hit our planet. These pulses indicate conditions in Earth’s upper atmosphere changed, with electrons suddenly stripped from their host atoms. Gamma rays ionize atoms in this way, so it seems very likely that this blast physically affected our planet’s atmosphere, though only mildly and briefly. Still, from two billion light-years away, that’s an extraordinary phenomenon.

A GRB this close means that astronomers can analyze the light they see from it in more ways than usual. Typically a burst’s light isn’t bright enough to clearly reveal details about the event that caused it. This specimen could help scientists better understand the central black hole engine that forms during a burst and the extraordinarily complex nature of the physics surrounding it.

It can also tell us about the Milky Way. The Swift observatory saw expanding rings of x-ray light centered on the GRB’s location, caused by dust clouds in the Milky Way located roughly 600 to 12,000 light-years from Earth. These “light echoes” happen when light hits dust clouds just off our line of sight to the GRB—so we see them to the side, next to the bright point in the sky. Because of the short amount of extra time it takes light from the blast to reach those dust clouds and be scattered toward us, we see rings of light moving outward from the center, their expansion rate related to their distance from us. Measuring these rings allowed astronomers to determine the distances to the clouds.

 

 

 

Although great strides have been made, especially since the 1990s when the first bursts were seen by optical telescopes and their distances were determined to be literally cosmic, there is much about them we have yet to understand. GRB 221009A is still being observed by telescopes around the world, and it may prove to be a Rosetta stone for these wildly diverse, bizarre and powerful events.”

 

[Bubbler86]

18Z GFS for late weekend.  Better matches the meso's now. 

 

[Jns2183]

18Z GFS for late weekend.  Better matches the meso's now. 

 

I'm happy to be north rather than south

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[Bubbler86]

The MA board gives the 18Z GFS one word for next weekend...boned.   GEFS is a little less bad.

[paweather]

I feel it for next weekend it’s farm show week! 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm happy to be north rather than south

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Exactly, I think the LSV is in a good spot for an Advisory minor event on Sunday night.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GEFS still looks good for the storm chance next weekend.

7 days to go…let’s see what 0z brings…long way to go until any solution is locked in.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GEFS still looks good for the storm chance next weekend.

7 days to go…let’s see what 0z brings…long way to go until any solution is locked in.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

Here is the 18z GEFS snow map for the period for next weekend.

Still lots of options on the individual ensemble members.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro brings a little Sunday night snow to CTP.

[Bubbler86]

34 this Am.  Almost back to a freezing temp. 

[Bubbler86]

0Z Euro has a 996 Low off the Carolina's and it is raining in Canada.  More complicated than this as a day earlier the "parent low" had driven to the Great Lakes and cooked the entire East Coast but if any cold air was available, we may have been able to recover after the transfer to the coast....but not even close on this panel.   That low is off the DelMarVa 48 hours later and much of PA has heavy rain and temps near 60. 

 

 

 

[mahantango#1]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

0Z Euro has a 996 Low off the Carolina's and it is raining in Canada.  More complicated than this as a day earlier the "parent low" had driven to the Great Lakes and cooked the entire East Coast but if any cold air was available, we may have been able to recover after the transfer to the coast....but not even close on this panel.   That low is off the DelMarVa 48 hours later and much of PA has heavy rain and temps near 60. 

 

 

 

Following all these model runs is like living with some one that's bipolar. We don't know which way it's going anymore. 

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Following all these model runs is like living with some one that's bipolar. We don't know which way it's going anymore. 

Yea, it as a tough hobby sometimes.   I love the back and forth and discussion about the whys.  

[Jns2183]

0Z Euro has a 996 Low off the Carolina's and it is raining in Canada.  More complicated than this as a day earlier the "parent low" had driven to the Great Lakes and cooked the entire East Coast but if any cold air was available, we may have been able to recover after the transfer to the coast....but not even close on this panel.   That low is off the DelMarVa 48 hours later and much of PA has heavy rain and temps near 60. 
 
 

 

I'll take my chances 10/10 in january with a 996 low off the coast of oc MD. If 1 in a 100 it decides to be 69 and raining so be it.

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[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'll take my chances 10/10 in january with a 996 low off the coast of oc MD. If 1 in a 100 it decides to be 69 and raining so be it.

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Yea, that graphic is perplexing when looking at it in a historical viewpoint.    It is one thing to get mix into SE PA but not Ohio and Canada.    Just no source for a deepening low to drag cold air in from. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS provides a little hope for CTP for the storm chance next weekend.

This is still far from ideal, but I will take whatever snow I can get at this point.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z NAMs bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to much of southern PA.

[anotherman]

I am starting to think that this is the most pathetic winter I’ve experienced since I’ve lived in this area. Not even an inch of snow yet and nothing on the horizon. Really sad.

[Cashtown_Coop]

14 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I am starting to think that this is the most pathetic winter I’ve experienced since I’ve lived in this area. Not even an inch of snow yet and nothing on the horizon. Really sad.

I’m with you.  I’ve been rather inactive posting this winter due to the lack of anything exciting to track.  I had the 3” of snow before Christmas that was washed away 6 hours later.  As psuhoffmam said, even during a bad winter season, we can nickel and dime our way to 20+”.   It’s not looking good for sure.   

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m with you.  I’ve been rather inactive posting this winter due to the lack of anything exciting to track.  I had the 3” of snow before Christmas that was washed away 6 hours later.  As psuhoffmam said, even during a bad winter season, we can nickel and dime our way to 20+”.   It’s not looking good for sure.   

I might snow a little bit tomorrow night.

[Blizzard of 93]

Maybe this Winter will be like 14-15 when we went on a great run from late January through Mid March. There was not much before late January that year.

[TimB]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Maybe this Winter will be like 14-15 when we went on a great run from late January through Mid March. There was not much before late January that year.

92-93 set the benchmark for how deep you can get into a terrible winter and still have it be saved and then some.

[anotherman]

I might snow a little bit tomorrow night.

There is basically no cold air in much of the northern hemisphere.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

There is basically no cold air in much of the northern hemisphere.

But just about every model shows a little snow tomorrow night in PA & MD…

[anotherman]

Sure, but if you look at the temperature of the ocean and pretty much the entire northern hemisphere, you start to see the big picture. Hard to ignore what we are currently dealing with.