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Winter Banter Thread


Rjay
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19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

No it wasn't. It was too far south and east and too cold. GFS as late as yesterday was giving my area around 6 inches and most other models were giving it close to zero. We got close to zero. When GFS is on it's own it's nearly always wrong. 

Not picking on or defending any model here and looking just at this Total Positive Snow Depth map from yesterdays 12z GFS.  This happened to work out well IMBY and shows the snow hole in Dutchess.

12-15-22.JPG

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13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not picking on or defending any model here and looking just at this Total Positive Snow Depth map from yesterdays 12z GFS.  This happened to work out well IMBY and shows the snow hole in Dutchess.

12-15-22.JPG

Yes, one of the last models runs before the event. It's kuchera map was still showing 7 inches for Poughkeepsie on it's 18z run yesterday while all other models were showing little to nothing. I know snow maps aren't the be all and end all and are often very inaccurate but cmon. It's just a bad model and lagging behind the European and Canadian models. 

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22 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes, one of the last models runs before the event. It's kuchera map was still showing 7 inches for Poughkeepsie on it's 18z run yesterday while all other models were showing little to nothing. I know snow maps aren't the be all and end all and are often very inaccurate but cmon. It's just a bad model and lagging behind the European and Canadian models. 

If you take model output at face value you’re gonna have a bad time. 

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45 minutes ago, Nibor said:

If you take model output at face value you’re gonna have a bad time. 

I don't and it's not just model output or this one particular storm. It's just a bad model that has had worse results after an upgrade. It's far worse than both the Euro and CMC. Look at what is happening with next week's storm. 

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Not trying to rain (pun intended) on anyone’s parade here but I invite everyone complaining about the lack of snow and brutal cold before the arrival of astrological winter to take a gander at every other climate located between 40-41°N, coastal or inland, and find one (that’s not at a ridiculous elevation) that’s appreciably better for snow. Only Japan really stands out and it’s entirely due to a lake-effect on steroids phenomenon with the Sea of Japan + East Asia being colder, an anomaly.

Interior North America is colder with mostly similar snow totals, East Asia is colder but much drier, then there’s California, Iberia, the Mediterranean and western Asia which are generally milder at similar elevations.

You’d be hard pressed to find a climate as variable as ours at this latitude in either hemisphere. If the Appalachians weren’t so old and weathered things would look incredibly different (warmer and boring) around here.

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Not trying to rain (pun intended) on anyone’s parade here but I invite everyone complaining about the lack of snow and brutal cold before the arrival of astrological winter to take a gander at every other climate located between 40-41°N, coastal or inland, and find one (that’s not at a ridiculous elevation) that’s appreciably better for snow. Only Japan really stands out and it’s entirely due to a lake-effect on steroids phenomenon with the Sea of Japan + East Asia being colder, an anomaly.
Interior North America is colder with mostly similar snow totals, East Asia is colder but much drier, then there’s California, Iberia, the Mediterranean and western Asia which are generally milder at similar elevations.
You’d be hard pressed to find a climate as variable as ours at this latitude in either hemisphere. If the Appalachians weren’t so old and weathered things would look incredibly different (warmer and boring) around here.

Who do you think you are coming here and laying out facts and logical interpretations of situations of which we have no control over?


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