nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Some crappy little Ice event There’s still a storm signal in the east for that time frame. OPs will continue to fluctuate this far out. Can’t ask for more with that kind of cold nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: There’s still a storm signal in the east for that time frame. OPs will continue to fluctuate this far out. Can’t ask for more with that kind of cold nearby. Hopefully we get something but, could be the usual case of it’s brutally cold for days then it warms up and rains or ices and then cold again. Hope it’s not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Merry Fridgemas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Hopefully we get something but, could be the usual case of it’s brutally cold for days then it warms up and rains or ices and then cold again. Hope it’s not the case. I'm not sure this is that kind of pattern. This cold air ain't going anywhere easily, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Non-scientific but I'm using the "Were due" logic for this pattern in the final 10 days of December. BWI has went 12 consecutive December's with less than 5 inches of snow(10 out of those 12 have recorded less than 1.6 inches). I'm aware December's aren't a strong snow month overall for our region but that's still a particularly bleak stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Another reinforcing drop in the - AO towards day 7 through 9. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GEFS trends continue to get colder and the extreme departures are moving East. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts. If there's some snow cover... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts. If there's some snow cover... Snow should be nearby. The real window for significant snowfall in our region might be right after this time period. Of course, I gladly take a SECS prior to Christmas. To have that airmass over snow covered ground would be epic ! The depiction of snowfall from the GEFS is interesting, thought there be more of a Tenn. Valley component. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts. If there's some snow cover... I have to think there will be some mood snow even if its a heavy squall during arctic intrusions. those departures look dry and squashing for precip to occur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 After the late week event this looks like the most active period leading up to Christmas on the latest GEFS. Given the cold look, decent chance this would be frozen. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I have to think there will be some mood snow even if its a heavy squall during arctic intrusions. those departures look dry and squashing for precip to occur. Yep. We don't need artic cold for snow. The precip anomalies on 6z gefs look fairly dry 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Yep. We don't need artic cold for snow. The precip anomalies on 6z gefs look fairly dry Agreed but who knows how things will turn out. when you have 1050+ highs pushing down with 486 thickness levels you never know what your gonna get. maybe a fun snow squall line....at least if its going to warm up and rain between cold shots it will have a fight pushing the cold away from the blocking...we'd have to see some bad luck not to get something out of this between now and 1 Jan....really bad luck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 Definitely a window for a storm/storms before Xmas and this potential arctic airmass, plus there can always be some snow squalls along the arctic boundary as @BristowWx mentioned. Still think we need to clear out this week's big storm before we get any clarity on next week. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts. If there's some snow cover... Agreed 100%. If we dont have snow cover by then and that cold/dry look verifies, gonna be alot of frustrated weenies. It may very well end up being the relax from those departures that we eventually key-in on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agreed but who knows how things will turn out. when you have 1050+ highs pushing down with 486 thickness levels you never know what your gonna get. maybe a fun snow squall line....at least if its going to warm up and rain between cold shots it will have a fight pushing the cold away from the blocking...we'd have to see some bad luck not to get something out of this between now and 1 Jan....really bad luck Thank heavens we never have bad luck. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed 100%. If we dont have snow cover by then and that cold/dry look verifies, gonna be alot of frustrated weenies. It may very well end up being the relax from those departures that we eventually key-in on? At this point I see no reason to think that a favorable pattern even begins to end the week after Xmas. We'll just have to see how our luck shakes out, but I'd be very surprised if we're skunked through New Year's. Note that doesn't mean that we get multiple KUs. I think monthly totals of 3" at DCA and ~6" at BWI and IAD would be "wins" and is eminently achievable with the pattern we have for the last 2 weeks of the month. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: At this point I see no reason to think that a favorable pattern even begins to end the week after Xmas. We'll just have to see how our luck shakes out, but I'd be very surprised if we're skunked through New Year's. Note that doesn't mean that we get multiple KUs. I think monthly totals of 3" at DCA and ~6" at BWI and IAD would be "wins" and is eminently achievable with the pattern we have for the last 2 weeks of the month. Fwiw the GEFS extended keeps the same general longwave pattern in place with below average temps through the end of the run- mid Jan. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Fwiw the GEFS extended keeps the same general longwave pattern in place with below average temps through the end of the run- mid Jan. We should score a couple of times with a pattern like that. The cold air is Terry McLaurin and the waves are Taylor Heinicke. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, frd said: Another reinforcing drop in the - AO towards day 7 through 9. No it doesn't. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Definitely a window for a storm/storms before Xmas and this potential arctic airmass, plus there can always be some snow squalls along the arctic boundary as @BristowWx mentioned. Still think we need to clear out this week's big storm before we get any clarity on next week. This is what weenies like me need to focus on. That storm sets the stage for what happens after it, so until it's come and gone we're going to see some fluctuations in what the models show for this period of interest. We watch and wait and teeter on the edge of despair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: This is what weenies like me need to focus on. That storm sets the stage for what happens after it, so until it's come and gone we're going to see some fluctuations in what the models show for this period of interest. We watch and wait and teeter on the edge of despair. At least we almost maybe eliminated the need to say "there is just no cold air around"....it's around for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: This is what weenies like me need to focus on. That storm sets the stage for what happens after it, so until it's come and gone we're going to see some fluctuations in what the models show for this period of interest. We watch and wait and teeter on the edge of despair. Hopefully by mid-January, our frustrated lack of patience will be a distant memory for everyone except @psuhoffman who will have total recall how many misses we had before scoring. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: At least we almost maybe eliminated the need to say "there is just no cold air around"....it's around for once Yup. Now I'm just waiting for WinterWxLuvr to come in and tell us that we need precip first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yup. Now I'm just waiting for WinterWxLuvr to come in and tell us that we need precip first! 7 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And this is representative of our most cordial threads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hopefully by mid-January, our frustrated lack of patience will be a distant memory for everyone except @psuhoffman who will have total recall how many misses we had before scoring. Late January 2007. Every guidance showed a nice 3-6” event from a rather weak wave along a stalled boundary only 24 hours out. Everything except the NAM. We were tossing it since surely that one relatively new and so far unreliable model couldn’t be right against all else. Wanna guess what happened? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Late January 2007. Every guidance showed a nice 3-6” event from a rather weak wave along a stalled boundary only 24 hours out. Everything except the NAM. We were tossing it since surely that one relatively new and so far unreliable model couldn’t be right against all else. Wanna guess what happened? My first winter in WV. I was so frustrated after that bust, and the winter to that point, that I headed to the mountains for a snow fix. When I returned, a great pattern set in and there were numerous snowfalls through mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: My first winter in WV. I was so frustrated after that bust, and the winter to that point, that I headed to the mountains for a snow fix. When I returned, a great pattern set in and there were numerous snowfalls through mid-March. Unfortunately I think we underperformed. Had a pretty good pattern from like Jan 20 through March but never really got a flush hit. Lots of minor events and a big ice storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip. So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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