kdxken Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 5 hours ago, weathafella said: Through 12/25: BOS: +0.3F ORH: +2.3F PVD: -0.7F BDL: +0.2 I thought it would average warmer to date. 12/26-27 will likely end up aob but 12/28-31 will tack on some +. I would have guessed that they would have been way above. I guess the cold shot tempered it somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 32 minutes ago, kdxken said: I would have guessed that they would have been way above. I guess the cold shot tempered it somewhat. December also just isn’t that cold of a month too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 12 hours ago, weathafella said: Through 12/25: BOS: +0.3F ORH: +2.3F PVD: -0.7F BDL: +0.2 I thought it would average warmer to date. 12/26-27 will likely end up aob but 12/28-31 will tack on some +. Currently +4.5F here, will likely be +5 by month's end, with one or two +10 (or milder) days on 30-31. Only the 3rd December of 25 that failed to go below zero, unless we get some super radiational nights tonight or tomorrow night. Minima have been consistently above the forecast, as nighttime clouds do their thing. I think Aroostook will be even more AN than here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 First time above freezing since Son of Grinch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Wolfie I know you scoffed at the once in a generation AFD IN Buffalo but yowzers. So many dead. The combination of severe cold severe wind and straight up 40 hrs of Blizzard was the worst of my generation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 16 hours ago, radarman said: Word is that certain local ponds might be ready to go tomorrow with smooth black ice. Be safe but take advantage if you can. Doesn't usually last long. Lake Wyola just about perfection 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 A bit warmer than expected today. 37° in Turners Falls on the car thermo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: A bit warmer than expected today. 37° in Turners Falls on the car thermo. Seems too warm. Hit 29.3 here earlier for the high. Down to 28 now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 35.5F high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Wolfie I know you scoffed at the once in a generation AFD IN Buffalo but yowzers. So many dead. The combination of severe cold severe wind and straight up 40 hrs of Blizzard was the worst of my generation. 39" on 50-1 ratios, damn. And those last 6" at 100-1...lol. That depth is nuts too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 1 hour ago, radarman said: Lake Wyola just about perfection Don't miss the net! That bugger will never stop. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: 39" on 50-1 ratios, damn. And those last 6" at 100-1...lol. That depth is nuts too. Take all of that with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 This is the last 3 weeks mean pattern. Hard to believe we didn’t do better. NNE didn’t do too bad…so much for fearing suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: Take all of that with a grain of salt. I mean yea I figured, but they still put the numbers in there so was taking it on some face value. I have seen some JSpin 40 or 50-1, but they are one offs with zero wind and much smaller events if I recall. Why even put those liquid totals in there then? All 66" is like 50-1 or even more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 And if you get rid of the transition period between 12/5 and 12/8, it looks even more classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Those h5 maps above are a great illustration of how the ensembles actually did predict the mean pattern fairly well, but the smaller scale features within the mean pattern mostly broke against us and those smaller scale nuances are not easily predictable at 1-2 weeks notice. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Those h5 maps above are a great illustration of how the ensembles actually did predict the mean pattern fairly well, but the smaller scale features within the mean pattern mostly broke against us and those smaller scale nuances are not easily predictable at 1-2 weeks notice. How to get screwed out of a KU in one easy lesson 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 42 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: 39" on 50-1 ratios, damn. And those last 6" at 100-1...lol. That depth is nuts too. 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Take all of that with a grain of salt. Another one close by. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Perhaps Cheektowaga took cores while Snyder measured what was caught in containers. With 40-60 mph gusts, might make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems too warm. Hit 29.3 here earlier for the high. Down to 28 now . TF is right on the Connecticut River 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 2 hours ago, radarman said: Lake Wyola just about perfection Might head up there tomorrow. Good pond skating does not happen every year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Might head up there tomorrow. Good pond skating does not happen every year. An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola. 3-6" of black ice. I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the last 3 weeks mean pattern. Hard to believe we didn’t do better. NNE didn’t do too bad…so much for fearing suppression. too bad we dont live at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Might head up there tomorrow. Good pond skating does not happen every year. 14 minutes ago, radarman said: An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola. 3-6" of black ice. I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good. 3 hours ago, radarman said: Lake Wyola just about perfection Local news really pushing ice safety after fall thru ice. https://www.wcvb.com/article/winchester-ice-rescue-winter-pond-massachusetts/42348664 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, radarman said: An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola. 3-6" of black ice. I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good. Many years ago (1955-56) in NNJ we had a calm and slightly below zero night about Dec 20 that put 2" on the 95% of our lake that had been open water. A high schooler was skating all over and saw that I'd walked out on the 5% of older, thicker ice to test the new stuff's thickness. He skated over to scold me for ruining that beautiful ice (one small hole on a 50-acre lake). A small snowfall a few days later was wiped out by some 40s, then it was dry and cold for 6 weeks. It's the only time I've seen black ice a foot thick or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 4 hours ago, radarman said: Lake Wyola just about perfection Definitely calling for a big bonfire. Great shot Eric 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 I probably wouldn’t go anywhere near most ice right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I probably wouldn’t go anywhere near most ice right now. Not seeing any ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Another one close by. There’s no way you’re getting accurate measurements with that amount of wind. More errors than the Pittsburgh Pirates. And I’m going to assume they’re trying to catch the snow in the cocorahs gauge and not having much success doing it. Even the daily new snowfall will be difficult because you need to clear an area without it filling back in with blowing and drifting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 2 hours ago, radarman said: An older gentleman there said it was the smoothest he's ever seen Wyola. 3-6" of black ice. I heard portions of Fitzgerald Lake in Noho is also good. Wow, nice that it's black. Paradise Pond in LSF was crusty, except for thin part that just froze over... Stayed away from there. 44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I probably wouldn’t go anywhere near most ice right now. Yeah in your area, for sure. I always go out with a spud bar, ice picks, and wear a life jacket early season while I check thickness before setting up. Only way to be safe. Can't just go slap on your skates and beeline it for the other shore like some jabronies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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