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November 2022


Stormlover74
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At least three locations have now seen six feet of snow in western New York State:

Orchard Park: 77.0"
Hamburg: 73.7"
Natural Bridge (3 SW): 72.3"

Parts of the area could see another 4"-8" of snow overnight into tomorrow.

From New York City to Philadelphia, tranquil weather will continue. However, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region by the end of the weekend. Afterward, generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +9.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.181 today.

On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.819 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.695 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.5° (1.5° above normal).

 

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

One degree colder than Buffalo where there's now 35"+ of snow at the airport (5" last hour). :( 

You want consistent snow here, we need to build a large artificial lake to our NW.

I wonder how deep and large it would have to be to double our seasonal snowfall totals? Has anyone done any calculations on that?

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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At least three locations have now seen six feet of snow in western New York State:

Orchard Park: 77.0"
Hamburg: 73.7"
Natural Bridge (3 SW): 72.3"

Parts of the area could see another 4"-8" of snow overnight into tomorrow.

From New York City to Philadelphia, tranquil weather will continue. However, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region by the end of the weekend. Afterward, generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +9.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.181 today.

On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.819 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.695 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.5° (1.5° above normal).

 

Don are these going to be considered statewide or even national records?

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. A few areas could see a snow flurry. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 38°

Newark: 40°

Philadelphia: 38°

Colder than normal temperatures will continue until the middle of the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 54.4°

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, forcing over South America is more in the MJO 8-1 region favoring a -NAO. So if I it’s strong enough, it can push back against a more hostile MJO phase 6. We saw something like this during the December 2010 La Niña. The Pacific was very hostile for the first 25 days of the month with the La Niña and Maritime Continent MJO 5-6 region forcing. While December 2010 blocking was historic, even a slight improvement on the Atlantic side can try to mute the influence of a more hostile Pacific. So we may start December with competing influences and whichever is stronger winning out. 
 

23F1E40A-5598-408A-AA37-05839469E2D1.png.fcd7b3bc14339d1ff3b0edb019ebe6a9.png


 

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Exactly. It keeps it interesting to see what may happen. This is different than what we've seen recently too. The AAM charts posted by Matt Hugo on the main board are something I haven't seen in a long while. With -aam propagation poleward. Something that I remember HM talking about in regards to northern blocking years ago. Very interesting circumstances abound currently. 

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On 11/19/2022 at 8:07 AM, LibertyBell said:

This morning was our first freeze.... 31 degrees here (30.9)

 

Got down to 33 this morning. NWS says it's officially all over tonight with a hard freeze even in the most urbanized areas. Peppers still growing here.

 

615 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

... FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... 

* WHAT, Sub - freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected.

* WHERE, In New Jersey, Hudson County. In New York, New York  (Manhattan), Bronx, Richmond (Staten Island), Kings  (Brooklyn), Northern Queens, Southern Queens and Southern  Nassau Counties.

* WHEN, From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS, Frost and freeze conditions will kill sensitive  vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS, The growing season will be coming to an  end for these areas Monday November 21, and Frost Advisories  and Freeze Warnings will no longer be issued for this season  after Monday.

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Yeah, the JMA seasonal is going for this look in December. MJO 5-6 La Niña standing wave combined with MJO 8-1 region forcing in South America creating a -NAO pattern. While these seasonal outlooks usually aren’t the most reliable, the EPS has the -NAO to at least start December. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the month turns out.
B4680EC1-018B-4467-B846-E1C1CFD18770.png.58c1ed04ffa2c008ea25e50848c6648a.png
 
 

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